ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[ozonepete]

What would prevent 94L/future Beryl from running around the high pressure and going over the continential US instead of being ejected back into the ocean? More blocking highs?

There is an approaching upper level trough (at 500mb) coming from the west central U.S. that will force it back to the northeast on Monday. The only way 94L/Beryl could keep going west at that time is if the trough slows down a lot, but none of the models are indicating that so far.

[Aric Dunn]

What would prevent 94L/future Beryl from running around the high pressure and going over the continential US instead of being ejected back into the ocean? More blocking highs?

There is an approaching upper level trough (at 500mb) that will force it back to the northeast on Monday. The only way this could keep going west at that time is off the trough slows down a lot, but none of the models are indicating that so far.

GFS keeps it around till almost wed before heading out.

[ozonepete]

You are right Aric. Sorry about my timing.

[NDG]

Why many of you are saying "as the ridge builds in" the shear will relax.
What is making the shear relax is the UL trough's axis positioning on top of 94L, that is what is making the shear relax over 94L, not so much the ridge across the eastern US.

not saying the ridge is doing that at all. its just all going to happen simultaneously

Sorry, missed understood you.
There were a couple people that were talking about an UL ridge building over it.

[ROCK]

Consolidation / stacking looks to be happening now...I bet we see a nice looking system later tonight. Maybe not truly tropical but it will transition...

[bg1]

Looks like its starting to wrap up as the ridge builds in and shear is dropping it has become symmetrical looking to day. Also it appears we have the makings of what will likely be the last reformation. Also forward motion has just about stopped by this evening it will be quite apparent.

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg831/sc ... es=landing

I am with you on this Aric. Actually, I think the forward motion to the east-northeast which it had been doing since last night has just about come to a crawl observing imagery the past couple of hours.

I can see the circulation on the loop! Very exciting day ahead, who expected 2 named storms before June? Also good to see instability so high (someone mentioned this before), since last year it was pathetic. Of course, just in the interest of having storms to track and not causing any destruction.

How would this relocation and slowdown affect the models? Would it just stall in East Florida now?

[Aric Dunn]

Very solid indications now of the low deepening.
the circle is the approximate location. the bouy to the north has a East wind and pressures at the buoy have been falling rapidly.



Buoy
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41002

[northjaxpro]

The latest water vapor imagery. If you look carefully, you can see the base of the upper level Low moving just off shore GA and the Carolinas. Earlier models had this feature cutting off near or about on top of 94L. This process will help reduce the shear around 94L and help it consolidate over the weekend first into a subtropical entity and eventually more likely tropical as it turns back west and moves over the Gulf Stream.

[Aric Dunn]

Yo can also see it quite clearly here.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ozonepete]

I should add, as far as our earlier discussion about timing, that where and when it stops moving westward early next week is still the biggest "if" and it will remain very uncertain until after this has formed and started moving towards Florida/Georgia.

[Aric Dunn]

Man background pressure are super high... the buoy to the east has a 30.21 inch ! and north of the other bouy is 30.13. can we say tight pressure gradient if the pressure falls enough with this system.

[ozonepete]

So as we also discussed earlier, the winds could be pretty high before it gets classified and makes it very possible this will go straight to TS tomorrow or Sunday.

[Aric Dunn]

So as we also discussed earlier, the winds could be pretty high before it gets classified and makes it very possible this will go straight to TS tomorrow or Sunday.

yeah its already at TS winds.

[ozonepete]

That center sure looks like it may be "the one". And if so it's turned to NE motion now.

[OuterBanker]

About 4 hrs ago.

Sustained gales at ship near 33 and 77 SHIP S Time 1300 Lat 33.20 Long -76.40 wind dir 10 speed 35.0

[Aric Dunn]

That center sure looks like it may be "the one". And if so it's turned to NE motion now.

just about to start doing its loop.

[ozonepete]

Really? If you're right it's not getting that far north at all and a more southern landfall is likely. Are you thinking a pretty tight U-turn?

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Really? If you're right it's not getting that far north at all and a more southern landfall is likely. Are you thinking a pretty tight U-turn?

yeah and so are the 12z models. shifted south a little.
well the GFS quite a bit.

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Really? If you're right it's not getting that far north at all and a more southern landfall is likely. Are you thinking a pretty tight U-turn?

yeah and so are the 12z models. shifted south a little.
well the GFS quite a bit.

Yeah GFS is still the outlier. And it had better turn soon because the water NE of it is below 26C. On the other hand, if it does turn soon and does it tight, it will pass over some 28C water on its way to FLA. This is getting interesting...

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Really? If you're right it's not getting that far north at all and a more southern landfall is likely. Are you thinking a pretty tight U-turn?

yeah and so are the 12z models. shifted south a little.
well the GFS quite a bit.

Yeah GFS is still the outlier. And it had better turn soon because the water NE of it is below 26C. On the other hand, if it does turn soon and does it tight, it will pass over some 28C water on its way to FLA. This is getting interesting...

well its already ahead of the models by a good 12 hours or so.