ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

#301 Postby **ozonepete** » Fri May 25, 2012 11:21 am

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Did tropical atlantic just crash for anyone else?

Working fine for me.

#302 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Fri May 25, 2012 11:22 am

ozone: Working now.

lebron23 · #303 Postby **lebron23** » Fri May 25, 2012 11:44 am

NHC moves it off toward Mobile Bay?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

jdray · #304 Postby **jdray** » Fri May 25, 2012 11:59 am

Figures, I am having an Above Ground Pool installed June 1st.

Rainfall amounts are going to suck if some of the forecast models are correct. This thing might rival Fay for rain amounts for parts of Fla and Ga and SC.

lebron23 · #305 Postby **lebron23** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:00 pm

jdray wrote:Figures, I am having an Above Ground Pool installed June 1st.

Rainfall amounts are going to suck if some of the forecast models are correct. This thing might rival Fay for rain amounts for parts of Fla and Ga and SC.

I wouldnt expect anything as bad as Fay

Aric Dunn · #306 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:08 pm

Looks like its starting to wrap up as the ridge builds in and shear is dropping it has become symmetrical looking to day. Also it appears we have the makings of what will likely be the last reformation. Also forward motion has just about stopped by this evening it will be quite apparent.

#307 Postby **AdamFirst** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:11 pm

When (if) it completely wraps around, do you think it will lose that long train of moisture it's tapping into?

#308 Postby **JtSmarts** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:13 pm

Yeah Aric, it appears to have that classic "comma shape" right now.

#309 Postby **ozonepete** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like its starting to wrap up as the ridge builds in and shear is dropping it has become symmetrical looking to day. Also it appears we have the makings of what will likely be the last reformation. Also forward motion has just about stopped by this evening it will be quite apparent.

http://desmond.imageshack.us/Himg831/sc ... es=landing

That's exactly where I've been seeing it. And yes, the overall symmetry, or at least where it will be achieved, is pretty apparent now.

#310 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:15 pm

Could I have a link to that sat Aric?

#311 Postby **ozonepete** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:16 pm

AdamFirst wrote:When (if) it completely wraps around, do you think it will lose that long train of moisture it's tapping into?

Yes, it should. As long as the tail is there it indicates a surface front hooked into the center and that is a mid-latitude low feature that only shows up in subtropical/hybrid systems.

Aric Dunn · #312 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:16 pm

The other thing is if this is the beginning its a good 12 hours before all the models bring the forward motion to halt. which means maybe the southerly trend may continue.

#313 Postby **NDG** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:17 pm

Why many of you are saying "as the ridge builds in" the shear will relax.
What is making the shear relax is the UL trough's axis that came out of the eastern US positioning on top of 94L, that is what is making the shear relax over 94L, not so much the ridge across the eastern US.

Aric Dunn · #314 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:17 pm

well here is a different link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

#315 Postby **northjaxpro** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:17 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like its starting to wrap up as the ridge builds in and shear is dropping it has become symmetrical looking to day. Also it appears we have the makings of what will likely be the last reformation. Also forward motion has just about stopped by this evening it will be quite apparent.

I am with you on this Aric. Actually, I think the forward motion to the east-northeast which it had been doing since last night has just about come to a crawl observing imagery the past couple of hours.

Aric Dunn · #316 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:18 pm

NDG wrote:Why many of you are saying "as the ridge builds in" the shear will relax.
What is making the shear relax is the UL trough's axis positioning on top of 94L, that is what is making the shear relax over 94L, not so much the ridge across the eastern US.

not saying the ridge is doing that at all. its just all going to happen simultaneously

#317 Postby **Ivanhater** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:19 pm

Please remember to delete the IMG tags when quoting an image so we do not have the same image multiple times....thanks.

#318 Postby **ozonepete** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:22 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
I am with you on this Aric. Actually, I think the forward motion to the east-northeast which it had been doing since last night has just about come to a crawl observing imagery the past couple of hours.

I also agree. It looks like it has turned more to NE direction and is slowing down.

#319 Postby **AdamFirst** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:23 pm

What would prevent 94L/future Beryl from running around the high pressure and going over the continential US instead of being ejected back into the ocean? More blocking highs?

#320 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Fri May 25, 2012 12:24 pm

Do you think if they issue a 2pm STWO they will raise probs?

ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

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