EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Chacor]

Bud is the third major hurricane in May in the Eastern Pacific, and the fourth major hurricane before June in the entire North Pacific east of 180°.

[FutureEM]

I wish I had the images still, but the Bermuda Weather Service had this pegged down on Monday...even before most of the models started jumping on board.

[RL3AO]

Oh noes...the "A" word.

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES.

[cycloneye]

Oh noes...the "A" word.

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES.

That is quit impressive.

[RL3AO]

How is a hurricane without a visible eye annular? And how have they determined it is stronger then earlier when it looks worse.

I'm confused.

[Yellow Evan]

Bud is the third major hurricane in May in the Eastern Pacific, and the fourth major hurricane before June in the entire North Pacific east of 180°.

If Bud is still a hurricane at landfall, it will be the earliest EPAC landfalling hurricane.

[tolakram]

I'm confused as well. Looking at the sat loops it appears Bud has quickly run our of its favorable environment and is rapidly declining.

[mf_dolphin]

Here's the TRMM image that's referenced in the discussion.

One of the best papers I've seen on the subject of annular hurricanes http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007WAF2007031.1 Take two aspirin first but it is a good read

[tolakram]

Here is the last clear visible, contrast enhanced.

[Cyclenall]

Still, the SFMR does not support a higher intensity. I'd keep it at 95 kt.

I wouldn't put all my eggs in the SFMR basket . Having this:

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 120 KT E QUAD 22:15:00Z

and it not being a major hurricane is sketchy. The latest NHC discussion confirmed what I thought was going on. The writing was on the wall and I'm relieved that the NHC declared Bud a MAJOR HURRICANE! I was getting pretty nervous during the last few hours there!

How is a hurricane without a visible eye annular? And how have they determined it is stronger then earlier when it looks worse.

I'm confused.

I think I know what is going on here, they wanted to pull the trigger now because it was/is a major hurricane but the signals were mixed. IMO, the signals weren't mixed enough to prevent it from being declared major status. Them calling it annular though was very unexpected but interesting . My overall Epac 2012 prediction had a point about there being one annular hurricane this season...already checked that one off .

[mf_dolphin]

I'm confused as well. Looking at the sat loops it appears Bud has quickly run our of its favorable environment and is rapidly declining.

Don't think I agree with you on the rapidly declining. Definitely loosing the banding featurs but that's attributable to the evolution to annular. The IR images are still pretty awesome.

[tolakram]

Live IR loop (no color) http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

:: I should add WOW, I did not pick up on that looking at the AVN image, for some reason.

It does look like Bud is continuing to fire new convection which is obscuring the eye. This is a scary turn of developments for Mexico, considering annular can maintain strength longer and are very difficult to forecast.

[tolakram]

Live color loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

For some reason adding color really makes it look less impressive, at least for me.

[cycloneye]

The cruise ship (Milleninum) is out of danger as is out of the warning zone after stopping on Puerto Vallarta on Thursday. It will go now to Cabo San Lucas.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9

[Kingarabian]

So I guess as with the case with global models, the ADT doesn't handle annular Hurricanes well since it's numbers are tanking?

[Chacor]

Shouldn't really be considered annular without a distinct well-defined eye, so quite interesting to see the NHC use that terminology here.

[HURAKAN]

weakening

[Cyclenall]

Shouldn't really be considered annular without a distinct well-defined eye, so quite interesting to see the NHC use that terminology here.

Hurricane Gordon of 2006 looked more annular than this...way more.

Here is an image of major annular hurricane Bud:

[cycloneye]

Still has a tiny eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Not done yet.