EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models. SHIP ups intensity compared to prior runs.

WHXX01 KWBC 241835
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC THU MAY 24 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120524 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120524 1800 120525 0600 120525 1800 120526 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 80.4W 27.1N 80.0W 27.9N 79.5W 27.5N 79.4W
BAMD 25.3N 80.4W 29.0N 78.4W 31.7N 77.1W 32.5N 77.0W
BAMM 25.3N 80.4W 27.8N 79.7W 29.1N 79.0W 28.8N 79.0W
LBAR 25.3N 80.4W 28.0N 78.7W 30.2N 76.8W 31.7N 74.4W
SHIP 35KTS 39KTS 43KTS 42KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 40KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120526 1800 120527 1800 120528 1800 120529 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 79.3W 28.5N 79.3W 31.6N 80.1W 34.1N 80.5W
BAMD 32.5N 78.1W 32.1N 81.9W 31.6N 84.6W 30.8N 84.4W
BAMM 28.5N 79.5W 28.8N 80.8W 30.4N 82.1W 31.5N 82.3W
LBAR 31.8N 72.7W 30.3N 70.5W 28.5N 70.2W 27.9N 69.0W
SHIP 40KTS 36KTS 26KTS 18KTS
DSHP 37KTS 34KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 22.9N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 18DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 83.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 241839
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 28 20120524
183100 1725N 10357W 4566 06584 0346 -108 -124 164034 034 /// /// 03
183130 1724N 10400W 4733 06303 0330 -092 -105 163035 036 /// /// 03
183200 1724N 10402W 4898 06043 0315 -074 -075 165031 033 /// /// 03
183230 1724N 10405W 5085 05736 0290 -057 -058 171032 032 /// /// 03
183300 1724N 10408W 5283 05435 0267 -039 -045 168032 033 /// /// 03
183330 1724N 10410W 5490 05125 0246 -023 //// 164035 036 /// /// 05
183400 1723N 10413W 5715 04803 0085 -007 //// 162036 037 /// /// 05
183430 1723N 10415W 5950 04462 0079 +008 //// 162038 039 /// /// 05
183500 1723N 10418W 6184 04179 0115 +024 //// 164039 039 /// /// 05
183530 1723N 10420W 6425 03866 0113 +038 //// 169040 040 /// /// 05
183600 1722N 10422W 6677 03547 0115 +059 +038 169036 037 /// /// 03
183630 1722N 10425W 6931 03228 0110 +075 +058 166036 037 035 001 03
183700 1722N 10427W 6969 03186 0113 +074 +069 165037 037 037 000 00
183730 1722N 10429W 6972 03179 0101 +084 +065 170039 040 035 000 00
183800 1722N 10431W 6967 03184 0092 +087 +060 165040 040 034 001 00
183830 1721N 10433W 6967 03181 0095 +081 +061 159036 038 029 001 00
183900 1721N 10435W 6968 03177 0096 +083 +050 158036 037 026 000 00
183930 1721N 10438W 6967 03183 0091 +089 +040 160038 039 026 000 00
184000 1721N 10440W 6969 03182 0089 +088 +040 157039 039 027 000 00
184030 1721N 10442W 6966 03176 0080 +094 +044 158040 040 028 000 00
$$

Looks like they're leveling off at 3000m. NE-SW 1st pass ready? (Image misses ob27)

[cycloneye]

Look at those winds how strong they are already and plane is still not close to eye.

183700 1722N 10427W 6969 03186 0113 +074 +069 165037 037 037 000 00
183730 1722N 10429W 6972 03179 0101 +084 +065 170039 040 035 000 00
183800 1722N 10431W 6967 03184 0092 +087 +060 165040 040 034 001 00
183830 1721N 10433W 6967 03181 0095 +081 +061 159036 038 029 001 00
183900 1721N 10435W 6968 03177 0096 +083 +050 158036 037 026 000 00
183930 1721N 10438W 6967 03183 0091 +089 +040 160038 039 026 000 00
184000 1721N 10440W 6969 03182 0089 +088 +040 157039 039 027 000 00
184030 1721N 10442W 6966 03176 0080 +094 +044 158040 040 028 000 00
$$

[Kingarabian]

Convection trying to wrap around the eye again.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Ding-dong,100kts.

EP, 02, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 241849
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 29 20120524
184100 1721N 10444W 6967 03179 0084 +091 +049 152039 039 029 000 00
184130 1720N 10446W 6965 03177 0084 +090 +057 148039 039 030 000 00
184200 1720N 10449W 6967 03174 0079 +090 +058 148039 039 031 000 00
184230 1720N 10451W 6968 03176 0080 +090 +050 148040 040 032 001 00
184300 1720N 10453W 6967 03171 0082 +089 +054 148041 041 032 000 00
184330 1720N 10455W 6974 03166 0085 +085 +066 145041 042 032 000 03
184400 1719N 10457W 6963 03175 0087 +079 +070 145040 041 029 000 03
184430 1718N 10459W 6969 03165 0085 +080 //// 146039 039 030 000 01
184500 1717N 10500W 6967 03165 0077 +083 //// 147038 039 032 000 01
184530 1716N 10502W 6969 03168 0076 +085 //// 146038 039 033 001 01
184600 1715N 10503W 6965 03170 0074 +085 +074 146040 040 033 001 00
184630 1714N 10505W 6970 03159 0076 +085 +072 145040 041 033 000 00
184700 1713N 10506W 6966 03169 0075 +082 //// 144041 042 035 000 01
184730 1712N 10507W 6966 03167 0074 +081 //// 146043 043 036 000 01
184800 1711N 10509W 6967 03164 0069 +085 //// 147042 042 036 000 01
184830 1709N 10510W 6967 03163 0072 +079 //// 144042 043 036 002 01
184900 1708N 10512W 6966 03161 //// +073 //// 146045 048 038 003 01
184930 1707N 10513W 6969 03153 0072 +078 //// 150045 046 040 002 01
185000 1706N 10515W 6966 03159 0068 +082 //// 150045 046 039 002 01
185030 1705N 10516W 6969 03154 0065 +083 //// 152045 045 038 003 01
$$

Looks like they've start the drive from NE-SW

[cycloneye]

The 12z ECMWF has a storm just east of SC in 48 hours.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 241859
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 30 20120524
185100 1704N 10518W 6967 03155 0065 +080 //// 152046 048 038 002 01
185130 1703N 10519W 6967 03155 0065 +080 //// 151050 051 038 001 01
185200 1702N 10520W 6966 03152 0068 +077 //// 148049 050 038 001 01
185230 1701N 10522W 6970 03148 0064 +079 //// 145048 049 038 001 01
185300 1700N 10523W 6969 03149 0061 +077 //// 143048 049 039 002 01
185330 1659N 10525W 6969 03143 0056 +079 //// 140047 048 039 003 01
185400 1658N 10526W 6961 03151 //// +068 //// 133049 050 042 007 01
185430 1657N 10528W 6969 03140 //// +063 //// 132049 050 043 006 01
185500 1656N 10529W 6970 03138 //// +062 //// 132048 050 042 006 01
185530 1655N 10531W 6972 03134 //// +070 //// 138051 052 043 006 01
185600 1654N 10532W 6968 03144 0038 +086 //// 145055 057 042 004 01
185630 1653N 10534W 6967 03137 //// +083 //// 143056 057 042 004 01
185700 1652N 10535W 6959 03149 //// +073 //// 143060 063 043 005 01
185730 1651N 10537W 6970 03136 //// +071 //// 147053 060 044 005 01
185800 1650N 10538W 6971 03137 0035 +081 //// 155052 054 044 004 01
185830 1649N 10539W 6969 03137 0027 +096 +095 156053 054 044 003 03
185900 1648N 10541W 6966 03141 0032 +090 //// 156051 053 045 005 01
185930 1646N 10542W 6961 03138 //// +083 //// 152046 048 046 006 01
190000 1645N 10543W 6972 03129 //// +071 //// 138048 054 048 013 01
190030 1644N 10544W 6958 03138 //// +075 //// 135052 057 054 023 01
$$

[gotoman38]

Earlier dropsonde from NEQ

UZPN13 KNHC 241853
XXAA 74184 99174 71035 04773 99010 27623 12015 00085 26822 12016
92771 22637 13519 85505 18848 17519 70149 09230 17526 50587 05513
18534 40758 15357 19531 88999 77999
31313 09608 81826
61616 AF308 0102E BUD OB 09
62626 SPL 1754N10353W 1838 MBL WND 12517 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17026
009344 WL150 12016 084 REL 1745N10351W 182630 SPG 1754N10352W 183
835 =
XXBB 74188 99174 71035 04773 00010 27623 11850 18848 22830 17827
33713 10641 44626 03805 55486 06317 66441 11316 77408 14950 88388
16160 99380 16557 11377 16959 22357 18957 33344 22556
21212 00010 12015 11905 14018 22850 17519 33799 16033 44746 16027
55705 17526 66669 16517 77580 18036 88450 17533 99400 19531 11344
19533
31313 09608 81826
61616 AF308 0102E BUD OB 09
62626 SPL 1754N10353W 1838 MBL WND 12517 AEV 20802 DLM WND 17026
009344 WL150 12016 084 REL 1745N10351W 182630 SPG 1754N10352W 183
835 =

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 241909
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 31 20120524
190100 1643N 10545W 6966 03133 //// +072 //// 131045 048 050 025 01
190130 1641N 10547W 6970 03130 //// +082 //// 141047 050 050 017 01
190200 1640N 10548W 6969 03124 0020 +085 //// 141055 057 047 009 01
190230 1639N 10549W 6972 03125 0029 +087 //// 147058 062 044 005 01
190300 1638N 10550W 6969 03126 0029 +085 +082 148063 065 045 002 00
190330 1637N 10551W 6963 03126 0026 +086 +071 146068 069 042 003 00
190400 1636N 10553W 6968 03110 0038 +070 //// 144065 067 043 004 01
190430 1635N 10554W 6966 03115 //// +060 //// 139062 063 045 007 01
190500 1633N 10555W 6965 03114 //// +057 //// 139062 064 047 008 01
190530 1632N 10556W 6967 03110 //// +069 //// 146064 065 047 008 01
190600 1631N 10558W 6963 03104 //// +073 //// 146063 065 049 006 01
190630 1630N 10559W 6967 03096 //// +076 //// 145066 066 048 007 05
190700 1629N 10600W 6972 03088 //// +081 //// 144068 069 050 006 01
190730 1628N 10602W 6970 03089 //// +077 //// 140069 070 051 006 01
190800 1627N 10603W 6967 03086 //// +059 //// 144072 073 052 009 01
190830 1626N 10605W 6965 03077 //// +067 //// 147075 076 053 010 01
190900 1625N 10606W 6963 03077 //// +079 //// 152078 079 056 007 01
190930 1624N 10607W 6964 03069 //// +080 //// 153077 079 056 006 01
191000 1623N 10609W 6967 03062 //// +075 //// 151080 081 057 007 01
191030 1623N 10610W 6967 03044 9939 +081 //// 149085 086 060 013 01
$$

[northjaxpro]

TAFB forecasts 94L/potential Beryl about 150-200 miles east of Cape Canaveral tomorrow morning at 12Z

[cycloneye]

Now plane is starting to fly thru the most stronger winds.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 241919
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 32 20120524
191100 1622N 10612W 6965 03028 9928 +076 //// 148090 092 065 013 01
191130 1621N 10613W 6969 03008 //// +069 //// 143099 101 068 018 01
191200 1620N 10615W 6956 02995 //// +067 //// 138105 108 069 026 01
191230 1619N 10617W 6962 02977 //// +066 //// 134101 104 068 033 01
191300 1618N 10618W 6982 02940 //// +076 //// 137098 099 069 039 01
191330 1617N 10620W 6963 02928 //// +098 //// 139100 104 085 016 01
191400 1617N 10622W 6966 02905 //// +106 //// 139093 096 087 010 01
191430 1616N 10623W 6976 02871 //// +119 //// 135072 082 089 009 01
191500 1615N 10625W 6963 02864 9656 +147 +142 122046 054 089 002 00
191530 1613N 10626W 6973 02841 9635 +159 +133 114031 036 083 001 03
191600 1612N 10627W 6967 02837 9618 +166 +123 093018 021 061 002 03
191630 1610N 10628W 6961 02847 9597 +180 +113 043010 013 034 001 03
191700 1608N 10628W 6945 02861 9601 +175 +112 021005 009 029 000 00
191730 1606N 10627W 6937 02871 9615 +162 +119 291006 008 032 001 00
191800 1604N 10627W 6931 02878 9623 +154 +120 267018 022 031 000 00
191830 1603N 10627W 6929 02888 9611 +171 +098 258025 028 032 001 00
191900 1601N 10626W 6937 02882 9610 +183 +084 265034 038 037 002 03
191930 1559N 10626W 6936 02905 9629 +182 +087 275053 063 053 004 03
192000 1558N 10627W 6944 02903 9644 +179 +093 280062 063 066 000 03
192030 1557N 10629W 6933 02930 9670 +165 +101 276065 066 059 000 03
$$

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure measured on the first pass was 961 mbs.

[CrazyC83]

So far, the data supports a 90-95 kt intensity (108 kt FL/97 kt at surface, 89 kt SFMR). 960mb pressure (9597).

[Extratropical94]

Lowest pressure measured on the first pass was 961 mbs.

So they made quite a good guess with that 961 mbars in the BT file.

[gotoman38]

URPN15 KNHC 241929
AF308 0102E BUD HDOB 33 20120524
192100 1557N 10630W 6937 02931 9685 +161 +096 275082 084 055 000 03
192130 1557N 10631W 6940 02946 9678 +182 +077 279083 084 062 000 03
192200 1556N 10632W 6930 02971 9686 +190 +064 278081 083 077 001 03
192230 1555N 10633W 6933 02976 9705 +185 +063 279082 083 083 000 03
192300 1554N 10634W 6941 02984 9736 +168 +076 279085 087 081 000 03
192330 1553N 10635W 6923 03015 9784 +132 +106 279087 088 078 004 00
192400 1553N 10636W 6929 03031 9829 +111 //// 283080 083 077 004 01
192430 1552N 10637W 6938 03039 9855 +108 //// 286076 077 072 003 01
192500 1551N 10638W 6933 03057 9871 +103 //// 290074 076 069 001 01
192530 1550N 10639W 6931 03077 9910 +095 //// 295071 073 064 003 01
192600 1549N 10641W 6935 03083 9926 +088 //// 295071 072 063 006 01
192630 1548N 10642W 6938 03089 9922 +095 //// 290076 081 063 009 01
192700 1547N 10643W 6934 03098 9922 +107 +090 293069 071 062 010 00
192730 1546N 10644W 6945 03094 9939 +100 +096 296067 070 059 006 00
192800 1545N 10645W 6930 03117 9923 +119 +068 295064 064 056 002 00
192830 1544N 10646W 6932 03121 9925 +125 +057 291061 064 053 002 00
192900 1543N 10647W 6943 03114 9944 +117 +065 293058 059 050 001 00
192930 1541N 10649W 6929 03137 9946 +119 +060 290058 059 048 000 00
193000 1540N 10650W 6935 03129 9948 +119 +070 289058 059 047 001 03
193030 1539N 10651W 6930 03144 9954 +117 +074 290058 058 046 000 03
$$

grrrr GE missed last HDOB group - also my overlay is an hour old (1815Z)

[cycloneye]

Clouds inside eye,but still looks good.

[CrazyC83]

Based on that data, 95 kt seems the best guess right now. There was an 86 kt SFMR on the back side so stronger winds may exist in other quads.

[Fyzn94]

Can't wait for the next advisory now!!!