Texas Spring 2012

[ndale]

Weatherdude your post from the weather service makes it look like we may be transitioning into our hot and dry summer pattern we have in central Texas.

[Ntxw]

And so summer begins. I had horrible flashbacks taking a jog this morning of a certain past summer heat wave. The PNA has dipped negative and depending on how much further it goes will determine duration of this early summer like warm temperatures.

Said ridge will be anchored over the MS valley so hottest temps relative probably won't be over the populated areas of TX. Still hot nonetheless...if it shifts a bit further east we can get return moist flow out of the gulf if/when anything develops in the southern gulf or western carib into Texas next week. Longer range guidance does give glimpses of this happening.

[Nikki]

I sure hope we don't have to endure another summer like last year...the thought of a drought, wildfires, etc are enough to make me wanna break down in tears! While I don't want a hurricane hitting Texas, or anywhere for that matter, a nice pattern of sea breeze showers would be appreciated!!

[Texas Snowman]

This summer being like last summer? Can't guarantee that it won't be. But the odds are greatly against it. Why? Because last summer was the worst in RECORDED HISTORY in Texas. And it beat out 1980, a summer that was 30+ years ago. Those are once or twice in a life-time kind of events.

It will get hot and dry in Texas this summer, just like it does almost every summer. In fact, since moving here in the late 1970s, I can only remember a couple of summers that I would classify as reasonably comfortable to perhaps even cooler than normal.

But as Ntxw has mentioned, it would appear that the EPAC and the Gulf/Carib will be players in our weather this summer. We've already had one named system in the Atlantic basin. And now the second named system in the EPAC. That's as of May 22, nearly 10 days before the official start of the tropical seasons.

Case in point is new TS Bud in the EPAC. BTW, take a look at Bud's forecast trajectory. IMO, some of that moisture could get caught up into south Texas if that forecast track holds.

[Nikki]

That would be wonderful news for South Texas. I was under the assumption that TS Bud would not be crossing land...but to be honest, I am horrible, horrible, horrible with hurricane tracking etc, hence why I usually don't post and just sit back and read and ask questions!

[weatherdude1108]

I'm not good at hurricane tracking either rmmm. I tend to just read and occasionally post something that has rain coming our way, with the exception of my last post of course.

I'm always on the lookout for a glimpse of precipitation, unless we're flooding and can't use anymore, which is rare.

[Texas Snowman]

No, not saying it's going to cross land. Just that if it heads north and comes ashore in Mexico, some of its residual moisture might get pulled up into south Texas. The map below isn't showing Bud actually making it onshore but it will be close by the weekend.

[Nikki]

Thank you TexasSnowman for the explanation. I appreciate. My apologies as well, I shouldn't have included "crossing over land" I knew it was supposed to turn back away from the coast...

[horselattitudesfarm]

Just what I wanted to see!
Maybe next time.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING..AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS. HI-RES
MODELS SHOW A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY DUE TO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...WEAK INSTABILITY AND SOLAR
HEATING. STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THESE AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AND HAVE REMOVED POPS WHERE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THEN
BUILDS AND EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS INCREASING LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAKING IT FEEL MORE HUMID. HAVE GONE ONLY SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGHS AS SOIL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS STILL A
FACTOR IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS MOVES INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE
PREVIOUSLY CONSISTENT MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND LESS RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHIFTING IT TOWARD THE RIO
GRANDE. ALSO...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING LITTLE OR NO IMPACT OF
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM BUD ON SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES MAY COOL A LITTLE DUE TO
THE INCREASED CLOUDS OVER THE WEEKEND.

Well it just wouldn't be fair if we didn't have our own share of the ridge, would it?

[Ntxw]

Yeah odds that bud directly effects us are slim to none. However again if the eastern ridge budges east more, leftover mid level moisture from bud coupled with return flow low at the low levels (trough and moisture sitting in the Carib) could come into TX making for good chances of rain somewhere next week. But if that ridge holds strong and retrogrades high and dry.

[MGC]

Nooooo not another death ridge this summer. But, it is that time of the year for it to happen. At least it might protect me from hurricanes......MGC

[weatherdude1108]

Here's a ray of hope (thunderstorm complex) mentioned by Bob Rose occurring about 9 days from now. Just heresay for now.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[Texas Snowman]

WFAA's Steve McCauley mentioned the possibility of a widespread rain event in a few days this afternoon on his Facebook page:

"...the potential good news is that we continue to get some signals of a significant rain event coming up by the end of the month. It appears the atmosphere will set up for what could be a major CAP BUSTER in the form of an unusually strong cold front. More info on this POSSIBLE widespread rain event to come."

KXII's Steve LaNore up in Sherman/Denison posted the following on his blog today:

"The first significant weather change indicated is about a week from now when a surface front approaches from the north, so I have included a chance of rain for next Wednesday."

[lebron23]

Its way too hot

[Ntxw]

Indeed long term euro does indicate cooler air infiltrating southward across the eastern part of the nation early June-ish. Return flow will bring moisture into Texas this weekend. That coupled with signs of Gulf of Mexico activity (along with cold front) could spell optimism for us! Fingers crossed.

[Texas Snowman]

WFAA's Steve McCauley post a short while ago on Facebook:


"I continue to be guardedly optimistic about next week's cold front and its ability to bust the cap and produce a significant rain for north Texas. Today's cap is definitely off the Mexican High Plateaus and is of the Godzilla variety - taking 111 °F to break ! Hail, high winds, and tornadoes would be VERY likely if it were to break...but not to worry today.

Obviously it is way too early to discuss actual amounts that we can expect by next Thursday, but it looks like this should be at least a 50% coverage.

I will be posting a rain probability map later this afternoon. The interesting thing about this upcoming POSSIBLE rain event is that the upper-level disturbance that will contribute to bringing us the rain is currently over the Aleutian Islands. But it has an AMAZING journey ahead of it which I will try to detail out for anyone who cares to follow."

[weatherdude1108]

Here's the Farmer's Almanac prediction through July for the South Central area of the country:

"South Central U.S.
Long Range Weather Forecast for May 24th - July 23rd

Includes Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico
May 2012
24th-27th. Thunderstorms Texas east, then clearing, quite cool.
28th-31st. Fair at first, then turning unsettled.

June 2012
1st-3rd. Rain, showers Texas east. Fair, dry elsewhere.
4th-7th. Thunderstorms from New Mexico through Texas.
8th-11th. Gusty thunderstorms Texas, Louisiana coasts, then fair.
12th-15th. Light rain Southern Plains.
16th-19th. Fair, then turning unsettled.
20th-23rd. Squally Texas east, then clearing.
24th-27th. Hot! Many 90s and 100s. A risk of a thunderstorm.
28th-30th. Scattered showers, thunderstorms Arkansas, Louisiana, then fair. Remaining hot elsewhere.

July 2012
1st-3rd. Severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, tornadoes, especially Texas, Oklahoma.
4th-7th. Mostly fair, dry Independence Day.
8th-11th. Fair, then showery, breezy.
12th-15th. Fair, hot, with many 90s, even some 100s. Then scattered thunderstorms over Southern Rockies.
16th-19th. Squally Texas, Oklahoma.
20th-23rd. Fair, hot, then unsettled."


 

 

[lebron23]

Hot june?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /page2.gif

[Ntxw]

Euro has been consistent with showing thunderstorms and MCS activity in the northern half of the state by Weds and Thurs of next week. Scattered showers also possible elsewhere and more along a cold front. We'll see if this verifies. The negative PNA prediction previously has not mounted and instead straddle neutral. Hope! NAO will go very negative so if an extension can reach to Texas NW flow aloft might provide relief.

[Rgv20]

Well summer is making its presence know in my area as it has been 100+ for the past 4 days now. Yesterday on my way home from work the car thermometer read 113F!!