EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[CrazyC83]

So it was an ASCAT pass that confirmed its intensity, even though satellites suggest stronger. ASCAT > Dvorak in terms of use

[cycloneye]

From 2 PM PDT discussion:

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
INSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.

I found that paragraph very interesting as maybe there is no landfall after all?

[Kingarabian]

From 2 PM PDT discussion:

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A
DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND
INSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GFDL
AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST
OF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.

I found that paragraph very interesting as maybe there is no landfall after all?

That would be awesome for Mexico for sure.

[cycloneye]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe the peak intensity for Tropical Depression Two-E is too conservative. In fact, with rapid intensification a good bet over the next three days...I would not be surprised if the system became a major hurricane, or at the very least, a Category 2.

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SHEAR (KT)         8     7    10    11    10     7     5     5     7    12     9    10     9
HEAT CONTENT      39    42    49    66    77    62    40    26    21    17     9    15     0
700-500 MB RH     77    76    77    78    73    69    66    65    66    65    62    58    55

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Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    56% is   4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    40% is   5.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    26% is   4.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=    26% is   8.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO,it will be TS Bud on the 8 PM PDT as is organized enough to get the upgrade. However,that may change if another ASCAT pass later tonight doesn't reveal winds of TS force.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
...HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVERALL THE
SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS NOTED IN THE DEVELOPING
BANDING TYPE FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 5 KT...WITH A MINIMUM CENTER PRESSURE OF
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS CONTINUE AT 30 KT WITH GUSTS 40
KT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS TO 11 FT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDING
PREVAILS ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...YIELDING GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ALL
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION...WARM SST...PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL COME INTO PHASE WITH THE BROADER
CIRCULATION IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND IS FORECAST TO
THEN ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP INTO A
HURRICANE BY ABOUT 36 HRS. SCATTERED STRONG TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IN THE NW
QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED/STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W.

[Yellow Evan]

Somewhat surprised it is not Bud now.

[Kingarabian]

Here we go! I think it's going into RI:
Before:

Present:

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.8 4.0

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Best Track says no tropical storm.

That's just ridiculous.

EP, 02, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1014W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track says no tropical storm.

That's just ridiculous.

EP, 02, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1014W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

They may have another update of the 00z Best Track. Maybe they have another ASCAT pass that shows no TS force winds.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Best Track says no tropical storm.

That's just ridiculous.

EP, 02, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1014W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

They may have another update of the 00z Best Track. Maybe they have another ASCAT pass that shows no TS force winds.

There hasn't been an ASCAT pass since 16:39 UTC.

[Yellow Evan]

00z Best Track says no tropical storm.

That's just ridiculous.

EP, 02, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1014W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

They may have another update of the 00z Best Track. Maybe they have another ASCAT pass that shows no TS force winds.

Do you any ASCAT links?

[Yellow Evan]

00z Best Track says no tropical storm.

That's just ridiculous.

EP, 02, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1014W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

They may have another update of the 00z Best Track. Maybe they have another ASCAT pass that shows no TS force winds.

There hasn't been an ASCAT pass since 16:39 UTC.

Oh, that makes even less sense now. What are SAB/TAFB numbers?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Best Track says no tropical storm.

That's just ridiculous.

EP, 02, 2012052200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1014W, 30, 1005, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

They may have another update of the 00z Best Track. Maybe they have another ASCAT pass that shows no TS force winds.

Do you any ASCAT links?

ASCAT

I don't have access to SAB/TAFB.

[Kingarabian]

Don't sweat over this you guys. The NHC will likely get it to Bud. It happened before where the fore coming advisory was increased in comparison with the Best Track.

[RL3AO]

Remember, the BT is the start of a new advisory cycle. They still have 3 hours after that to when they release the advisory.

[Kingarabian]

Remember, the BT is the start of a new advisory cycle. They still have 3 hours after that to when they release the advisory.

Yep.

[brunota2003]

According to CIMSS ADT position estimates...the convection is off to the west of the center. Also, they *might* be toying around with the idea of an upgrade, as MIMIC says "Tropical Storm Two".

[Yellow Evan]

Remember, the BT is the start of a new advisory cycle. They still have 3 hours after that to when they release the advisory.

Yep.

Recently, the NHC has gone with the BT though. However, if Stewart is doing the adv, we might see an upgrade since he likes to factor in last minute changes.

[Yellow Evan]

According to CIMSS ADT position estimates...the convection is off to the west of the center. Also, they *might* be toying around with the idea of an upgrade, as MIMIC says "Tropical Storm Two".

Hmm, interesting. Should be an interesting next hour or so.