EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Finally! We're actually getting somewhere.

Yeah, it's been stuck at 20-40% for almost a week.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy,I found something that may be troublesome if this system turns torwards the Mexican coast and that is this cruise ship (Millenium) that has a stop at Puerto Vallarta on the 24th. Let's see what occurs as this system organizes and depending on the track and forward speed,the ship can avoid this. Off Topic=I made a cruise last year on board this ship on the same route.

May 12 Miami, Florida 4:30 PM
May 13 At Sea
May 14 At Sea
May 15 Cartagena, Colombia Docked 7:00 AM 3:00 PM
May 16 Colon, Panama Docked 9:00 AM 7:00 PM
May 17 Panama Canal (Cruising) Cruising 6:00 AM 6:00 PM
May 18 At Sea
May 19 Puntarenas, Costa Rica Docked 7:00 AM 7:00 PM
May 20 At Sea
May 21 Puerto Quetzal,Guatemala Docked 7:00 AM 6:00 PM
May 22 At Sea
May 23 At Sea
May 24 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Docked 7:00 AM 2:30 PM
May 25 Cabo San Lucas, Mexico Tendered 7:00 AM 3:00 PM
May 26 At Sea
May 27 San Diego, California 7:00 AM

Here is the ship when it made the transit thru the Panama Canal from Caribbean to the Pacific on the 17th.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's hope for the best for the ship.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

GTWO not updated yet.

[Yellow Evan]

GTWO not updated yet.

I lied now it is.

[Kingarabian]

It's there IMO. Banding looks super and the convection is really organized.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Let's see if they renumber this soon,or they wait until Monday morning.

EP, 92, 2012052100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 992W, 25, 1005

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe Invest 92E will be renumbered and declared Tropical Depression Two-E early tomorrow morning. The disturbance lies in a low shear, high moisture environment conducive for gradual to quick strengthening. It will likely get upgraded to Tropical Storm Bud tomorrow night as it moves southwest and then northeast. A strong trough should pass through the U.S. Central Plains as we head into next Thursday, turning the system northward and eventually north-northeastward as it makes a run at hurricane status. It will make landfall on the Mexican coastline during the day on Friday and rapidly weaken once inland.

[cycloneye]

HWRF goes bunkers with future Bud as it has a high end cat 2 when it makes landfall.

18z HWRF

[brunota2003]

It actually shows future Bud undergoing a period of rapid intensification leading up to landfall.

[cycloneye]

Here are the updated 00z runs by the models.SHIP goes up to 75kts.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z [Updated] Best Track

EP, 92, 2012052100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 993W, 30, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ,

[brunota2003]

SHIPS goes to 80 knots (look right before the 75 kt)

[cycloneye]

SHIPS goes to 80 knots (look right before the 75 kt)

Yes that is correct. I am starting to worrie more about that cruise ship.The only way that they can avoid future Bud is by not stopping at Puerto Vallarta.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's a look at wind shear, relative humidity, ocean heat content, and a bunch of other useful forecasts for Invest 92E.

[cycloneye]

TD TWO-E

Here is the upgrade to TD.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep022012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205210143
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP


http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Tropical Depression Two-E:

[cycloneye]

EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* TWO EP022012 05/21/12 00 UTC

[TropicalAnalystwx13]