![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc12/SHEM/94S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km_bw/20120506.0932.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.94SINVEST.25kts-1004mb-52S-1263E.100pc.jpg)
ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0S
126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5S 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DEEP BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
051259Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH WEAKER AND FRAGMENTED BANDS FEEDING IN FROM
THE EAST. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA INDICATES 1006 MB
AND 25 KNOTS. THE 051200Z PGTW UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT
SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS AND KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIGHT (05-
10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ABOVE 30
DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WITHIN THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS,
THAT TIMEFRAME MAY BECOME ACCELERATED AS THE NEXT MODEL RUNS COME
IN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
TXXS24 KNES 060611
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)
B. 06/0532Z
C. 5.2S
D. 126.2E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LLC IS
SHEARED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM DG. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER