Hurricane Jed wrote:So 1933 actually lost a storm?
Yes - Storms 3 and 4 were the same system, so they had a track combined. Also a couple storms were downgraded to depressions, while a couple new storms were found.
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Hurricane Jed wrote:So 1933 actually lost a storm?
Hurricane Jed wrote:1950 is of particular interest to me. If they find more storms or that certain storms were stronger or existed longer, 1950 will likely surpass 2005's ACE value.
Hurricane Jed wrote:1940's: More or less Category 5's?
CrazyC83 wrote:Hurricane Jed wrote:1940's: More or less Category 5's?
Unless a new one is found in the early part of the decade, none at all it appears.
I also think the 1960s will lose some of their Cat 5's.
Hurricane Jed wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Ethel and Donna would be the most likely candidates. Hattie and Beulah should retain Cat 5 status as they have pressures typical of a Category 5 (thinking Andrew here). Camille definitely stays Cat 5. Carla is iffy, but Carla was a beast so idk about her. Think any could be upgraded, Inez possibly?
Hurricane Jed wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Hurricane Jed wrote:1940's: More or less Category 5's?
Unless a new one is found in the early part of the decade, none at all it appears.
I also think the 1960s will lose some of their Cat 5's.
Ethel and Donna would be the most likely candidates. Hattie and Beulah should retain Cat 5 status as they have pressures typical of a Category 5 (thinking Andrew here). Camille definitely stays Cat 5. Carla is iffy, but Carla was a beast so idk about her. Think any could be upgraded, Inez possibly?
Ptarmigan wrote:
Ethel definitely will be downgraded. The central pressure does not support Category 5 right there. I think Ethel was Category 2 at most. I think Donna is Category 5. As for Hattie and Beulah, they are Category 5 as well. Carla would be interesting. The central pressure with 175 mph winds is 936 millibars, while at landfall it was 931 millibars with 150 mph winds. Carla was a large hurricane, so the wind speed had to be lower.
Here is a surface wind analysis for Carla when it was 175 mph and 936 millibar. It shows that Carla's peak at the time was 105 mph or Category 2. It is a large hurricane that time.
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
Hurricane Jed wrote::uarrow: Are you finding the length of Faith's path dubious? Some 7500 miles total wasn't it?
CrazyC83 wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:
Ethel definitely will be downgraded. The central pressure does not support Category 5 right there. I think Ethel was Category 2 at most. I think Donna is Category 5. As for Hattie and Beulah, they are Category 5 as well. Carla would be interesting. The central pressure with 175 mph winds is 936 millibars, while at landfall it was 931 millibars with 150 mph winds. Carla was a large hurricane, so the wind speed had to be lower.
Here is a surface wind analysis for Carla when it was 175 mph and 936 millibar. It shows that Carla's peak at the time was 105 mph or Category 2. It is a large hurricane that time.
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png
Agreed with Ethel, my best guess for its peak intensity is 95 kt (75 kt at landfall) based on the 972mb pressure and fairly small size. A document already showed Donna likely being downgraded to a Cat 4 peak.
My best guess for Carla at landfall is 115 kt (and 105 kt at the time of the HRD analyses as they may not have caught the maximum winds), based on the huge size and the landfall pressure of around 929mb (adjusted thinking it may have been a bit deeper between the Recon pressure and the Port Lavaca pressure which was just after landfall). In terms of winds, it wouldn't even be the strongest storm to hit Texas...
I don't know anything about the size of Beulah (I haven't looked at it in detail) so can't really make a judgement there. Hattie and Camille should definitely remain Cat 5 at peak intensity. Inez should also be upgraded from Cat 4 to Cat 5 (best guess is 145 kt), since it was a very small storm at the time of the 927mb pressure.
So if that is all right, and nothing else gets upgraded (haven't found any real contenders other than Inez), then there would be 3 or 4 Cat 5's in the 1960s.
Hurricanehink wrote:There won't likely be any upgrades for the early 1940's due to World War II. There weren't all that many observations, available, so what we have is it. That preliminary paper from 44-53 also downgraded the 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane, IIRC, meaning there might not have been any Category 5 hurricanes in the 1940s.