#16 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Feb 29, 2012 9:04 am
WTIO30 FMEE 291214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/12/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
2.A POSITION 2012/02/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 67.8 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/01 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/03/01 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/03/02 00 UTC: 16.5 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/03/02 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/03/03 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 65.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/03/03 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 66.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/04 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/03/05 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=2.5 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS. IT IS STILL AN IRREGULAR CDO LESS THAN 90 NM IN DIAMETER ON VIS
0924Z N19 IMAGERY. SOME SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUTATIONS IN SIZE AND SHAPE OF
THIS CDO APPEAR ASSOCIATED TO THE OCCURENCE OF CONVECTIVE BURST. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS A SMALL SIZE INNER-CORE SYSTEM.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IMPROVES ON THE BOTH SIDES. THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND SEEMS TO IMPROVE OVER THE EASTERN
SIDE ACCORDING TO LATEST SAT PICS.
THE SYSTEM TRACKS NOW SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS GETTING CLOSER OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGHT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR COULD REMAIN
TOMORROW, IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL GAIN A LITTLE BIT OF
STRENGTH. FRIDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT ITS BEST UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ... PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW GIVEN
THAT FEW OR NONE OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THE SYSTEM
UNTIL FRIDAY ... HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER CORE, ONE
COULD NOTE THAT SOME STRONGER VARIATIONS IN INTENSITY THAN PRESENTLY
INDICATED COULD BE OBSERVED.
FROM SATURDAY TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A NEW NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE DEEPEN THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. FURTHER ANALYSIS SHOW
THAT THIS INTENSIFICATION MAY COME FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESS ...
CONSEQUENTLY, EN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BEGIN SUNDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD ROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS LOCATED TO ITS EAST AND
SHOULD BE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
TRACK COULD TAKE BY THAT TIME A SOUTHEEASTWARDS MOTION BETWEEN THE
TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHEAST . AFTER THAT, THE PREDILECTED SCENARIO IS WESTWARDS TURN ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST
SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AROUND THIS "S" TRACK.
IF THE PRESENT TRACK FORECAST A LOWER THREAT FOR RODRIGUES,
INHABITANTS OF RODRIGUES ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM, AS A MORE SERIOUS THREAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ...
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