Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Rgv20]

What? No one here is discussing this weekend's snow along the Texas coast? That's according to the 06Z GFS, anyway.

Both the 0z and 6zGFS both show a chance of snow for my area (Upper Rio Grande Valley), What are the chances of the GFS verifying?

[ndale]

What? No one here is discussing this weekend's snow along the Texas coast? That's according to the 06Z GFS, anyway.

Both the 0z and 6zGFS both show a chance of snow for my area (Upper Rio Grande Valley), What are the chances of the GFS verifying?

The GFS cried wolf one too many times.

[Rgv20]

12GFS still showing the potential for winter weather for parts of South Texas....and its only 42-54 hours out....

[hriverajr]

If that happens I am taking a road trip hehe

[Ntxw]

Euro seems to suggest a pocket of sub 0c around Rgv20's area (Laredo to CC). Very interesting indeed. Being right under the low definitely helps.

[Portastorm]

Snow in South Texas this weekend?! Pish, posh, apple sauce!!

You rubes better not buy into that GFS model stuff. Don't be Charlie Brown and let Lucy (the GFS) pull the football from you once again! Winter is over. Heck, it is 86 degrees at the Portastorm Weather Center at 12 noon!

Heat Miser is in complete control.

[Janie2006]

True, that. Heat Miser has the iron grip.

That being said, ever since the SuperStorm of March 1993 I always look forward to the beginning of March with just a *little bit* of hope in my cynical old heart. Realistically, it's model stuff, but still...

[wxman57]

Aw, you guys are no fun anymore. Back in the days when we used to get winter in Texas, there would have been 10 pages of exited posts regarding this weekend's predicted snow event. Now no one believes the GFS...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Euro seems to suggest a pocket of sub 0c around Rgv20's area (Laredo to CC). Very interesting indeed. Being right under the low definitely helps.

Can I have some visuals please?

[wxman57]

Euro seems to suggest a pocket of sub 0c around Rgv20's area (Laredo to CC). Very interesting indeed. Being right under the low definitely helps.

Can I have some visuals please?

I'm looking at the 12Z Euro in 6-hr increments and don't see any 0C 850mb temp on Saturday. South Texas is between 0C and +4C, with possibly a cold pocket around 1C-2C near the lower TX coast. Can't post any of the graphics here (not allowed).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro seems to suggest a pocket of sub 0c around Rgv20's area (Laredo to CC). Very interesting indeed. Being right under the low definitely helps.

Can I have some visuals please?

I'm looking at the 12Z Euro in 6-hr increments and don't see any 0C 850mb temp on Saturday. South Texas is between 0C and +4C, with possibly a cold pocket around 1C-2C near the lower TX coast. Can't post any of the graphics here (not allowed).

I dont see anything below 0C either. How will this low get the cold air it needs to produce anything frozen? Pretty sure it wont happen.

[Rgv20]

I see a pocket of 0c 850mb temp on 12z Saturday around the Laredo area but the relative humidity is in the 30 to 40% (to dry). To add to it the 925mb temp is forecast to be 4c+ for most of South Texas....So to make a long story short, 12zEuro forecast no winter fun for Texas.

Edit:18zNAM show a very light dusting of snow in the mountains of old mexico just SW of the Rio Grande Valley....

[ndale]

Aw, you guys are no fun anymore. Back in the days when we used to get winter in Texas, there would have been 10 pages of exited posts regarding this weekend's predicted snow event. Now no one believes the GFS...

Kind of your own fault, you have educated us well, now we know not to accept nonsense from the models.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I see a pocket of 0c 850mb temp on 12z Saturday around the Laredo area but the relative humidity is in the 30 to 40% (to dry). To add to it the 925mb temp is forecast to be 4c+ for most of South Texas....So to make a long story short, 12zEuro forecast no winter fun for Texas.

Edit:18zNAM show a very light dusting of snow in the mountains of old mexico just SW of the Rio Grande Valley....

You see 0C at 850mb in south TX on the Euro? What's your source. We get the Euro in 6hr increments but temperature data are only plotted in 4C increments at 850mb. All I can tell is that the temp is between 0C and 4C.

[Ntxw]

^ At 48hr Euro there is a small pocket of 0c or near 0c around Laredo. I just pointed it out since we were talking about it (blame wxman57!). It is NOT showing snow of any sort on this side of the border. Just worth noting.

http://instantweathermaps.com/index.php

[wxman57]

^ At 48hr Euro there is a small pocket of 0c or near 0c around Laredo. I just pointed it out since we were talking about it (blame wxman57!). It is NOT showing snow of any sort on this side of the border. Just worth noting.

http://instantweathermaps.com/index.php

Thanks. I'm checking to see if we can get our graphics to display every 2C vs. every 4C.

[Ntxw]

No problem

I'm hoping someone in deep south Texas gets enough dynamic cooling for a few flakes. We'll have to keep an eye on where the heaviest convection occurs and just maybe! Someone asked where the cold air is coming from, the cold front passing through today/tomorrow is not impressive on the ground, but might have just enough cold air a loft aided by cold wind fields underneath the 5h low to give a quick burst of something!

[Ptarmigan]

What? No one here is discussing this weekend's snow along the Texas coast? That's according to the 06Z GFS, anyway.

So, you are a closeted cold weather lover.

[wxman57]

What? No one here is discussing this weekend's snow along the Texas coast? That's according to the 06Z GFS, anyway.

So, you are a closeted cold weather lover.

Hey, I really don't care as long as that cold front reaches north Houston before midnight tonight and knocks our low temp for the day down below the current 69F. If not, then I take 2nd place in the forecast contest vs. 1st place. Looks like a sucky weekend for bicycling (again).

[Ntxw]

This is so strange! GFS is the loner in showing oodles of snow/sleet for deep south Texas (18z included). Why? Because it's the most aggressive with precip amounts. That is usually never the case...very puzzling. I refuse to believe it, winter cancel!