Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[natlib]

Steve McCauley with WFAA is back on board with the end of month McFarland type cold. I'm sure the models will come and go with this....but it is a possibility!

[somethingfunny]

For what it's worth, my "stupid Yankee tree" started budding out today. It always buds first - took some serious damage to its' leaves in the March 21 snowstorm two years ago. My other trees, which didn't bud before the March storm two years ago, haven't bitten onto Spring yet. I'll let you know when they do, or when it snows, whichever comes first.

[HockeyTx82]

So this morning on Ch. 4 here in Dallas Evan mentioned that on Sunday night we could be looking at an Arctic Front with some "rather cold air" for next week. What's the latest? What might he be looking at to make that statement this far out?

[wxman57]

So this morning on Ch. 4 here in Dallas Evan mentioned that on Sunday night we could be looking at an Arctic Front with some "rather cold air" for next week. What's the latest? What might he be looking at to make that statement this far out?

European says you could get as cold as 40 degrees on Saturday, low 40s on Sunday and mid 50s on Monday. 6Z GFS says 40 on Saturday, mid 50s Sunday and upper 50s Monday but upper 30s on Tuesday behind that massive Arctic front. Maybe even close to a light freeze in Dallas next Wed/Thu. That's "rather cold air" as far as I'm concerned, but then I like it in the 80s or higher. There's a good chance that the GFS may be too cold as far as next week's temps in Dallas, though.

I have no idea what that Ch 4 weatherman was looking at. I see no signs of any Arctic front. Maybe a little Canadian air mixed in with some Pacific air. Nothing too significant.

Here's a good link to look at for temps in any area over the coming week - WeatherSpark. It shows the model forecasts plotted along with the latest NOAA (NWS) forecast in red:

http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=USA/TX/Dallas

[gpsnowman]

Its not just the Fox 4 weatherman, also WFAA channel 8 mentions the POSSIBILITY of some much colder air just past the seven day. And maybe some precip to go along with it. Much too soon to say for sure. I would not think the two of them would mention it if it were not at least a possibility. Yeah cold!!!

[amawea]

So this morning on Ch. 4 here in Dallas Evan mentioned that on Sunday night we could be looking at an Arctic Front with some "rather cold air" for next week. What's the latest? What might he be looking at to make that statement this far out?

European says you could get as cold as 40 degrees on Saturday, low 40s on Sunday and mid 50s on Monday. 6Z GFS says 40 on Saturday, mid 50s Sunday and upper 50s Monday but upper 30s on Tuesday behind that massive Arctic front. Maybe even close to a light freeze in Dallas next Wed/Thu. That's "rather cold air" as far as I'm concerned, but then I like it in the 80s or higher. There's a good chance that the GFS may be too cold as far as next week's temps in Dallas, though.

I have no idea what that Ch 4 weatherman was looking at. I see no signs of any Arctic front. Maybe a little Canadian air mixed in with some Pacific air. Nothing too significant.

Here's a good link to look at for temps in any area over the coming week - WeatherSpark. It shows the model forecasts plotted along with the latest NOAA (NWS) forecast in red:

http://weatherspark.com/#!graphs;a=USA/TX/Dallas

That's an excellent site there Weatherman57.Thanks for the link.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Its not just the Fox 4 weatherman, also WFAA channel 8 mentions the POSSIBILITY of some much colder air just past the seven day. And maybe some precip to go along with it. Much too soon to say for sure. I would not think the two of them would mention it if it were not at least a possibility. Yeah cold!!!

They probably saw the 1050+ highs sliding down Alaska from the arctic on the op models. That is very cold air, but there is still yet to be indication that it will head straight south. Progged -PNA and no -NAO block could mean a glancing blow with most into the lakes and eastern Canada.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Plenty of cold air forecast in the northwestern territories mid to late week.and with many of these airmasses they can be shallow so models do not pick up on them

[orangeblood]

IMO, It will all depend on how far south the western trough digs over the weekend....if it digs further south and is slower than currently forecast, the upper air pattern is well positioned to funnel the cold air right down the spine of the Rockies with a good possibility of post-frontal wintry precip. But if it swings out further north, we'll only get a glancing blow like Ntxw has mentioned

Some 6Z ensembles are forecasting 30F below normal across Southern Canada next week...that'll be the coldest air of the season if it were to verify

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

Plenty of cold air forecast in the northwestern territories mid to late week.and with many of these airmasses they can be shallow so models do not pick up on them

Cold, yes, but not even close to the air temps in that same region earlier this winter. 12Z GFS forecasts temps 10-25F below normal in western Canada by this weekend. It brings that air southward but it modifies considerably over the non snow-covered ground. Temps in TX could be 5-15F below normal around the end of the month (12Z GFS), but "normal" is on the rise now as we move closer to March. We could be 15F below normal here in Houston and remain above freezing for lows, and the latest GFS ensemble run has TX temps only about 5-8F below normal next week.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Very true.The lack of snowpack will modify this airmass.

[wxman57]

Even less snow than earlier in the winter. Snow line is way up in Canada for any airmass moving south lee of the Rockies to Texas.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Steve McCauley (Wfaa) has been on a roll lately, I wouldn't bet against his forecast at the moment. Of course, he hasn't written anything in stone yet, but his hunches have been verified more often than not in recent months. Evan on Channel 4 has a rep of not being very sensationalist as well. As of now, the weather service is on heat miser's side, so we'll see.

[Palmer divide shadow]

Thats crazy.plus,you have to factor in the sun angle this time of year .even the coldest airmass would modify considerably. 70s friday here along the front range .

[wxman57]

New GFS ensembles have Dallas area 5-10F below normal next week. No freeze. The air in western Canada just isn't forecast to be THAT cold compared to earlier this winter. And the snow pack is even less than a month ago. GFS operational says Dallas MIGHT see a very light freeze on March 1st. Not particularly extreme. After all, it IS February.

March is only 9 days away now. Don't look for any March surprise this year as the pattern just isn't there and there's no snow pack up north. Getting close to time for some 80s to begin showing up in SE TX.

[orangeblood]

New GFS ensembles have Dallas area 5-10F below normal next week. No freeze. The air in western Canada just isn't forecast to be THAT cold compared to earlier this winter. And the snow pack is even less than a month ago. GFS operational says Dallas MIGHT see a very light freeze on March 1st. Not particularly extreme. After all, it IS February.

March is only 9 days away now. Don't look for any March surprise this year as the pattern just isn't there and there's no snow pack up north. Getting close to time for some 80s to begin showing up in SE TX.

You honestly believe these models are going to be able to handle a cold dense air mass that's forecast to be upwards of 25-30F below normal?? They're vastly underestimating the southward push of that air mass....they do it every year.

[Ntxw]

Last weekend (during the mini event) Wxman57 mentioned to Portastorm that the models were only showing upper 30s (lows) for Dallas much similar to the chill snap a few days earlier...it got down to the mid 20s . The models cannot be trusted, cold or warm. Stick to the 500mb charts imo

[pwrdog]

It did snow on April 8th 2007 and March 21st 2010 here in parts of SE Texas...

I won't give up on seeing a few flakes anytime soon..

I just hope we don't see any hard freeze this late... Everything is blooming around these parts and that would suck..

A nice 33 degree snow would be sweet though..

[DFW Stormwatcher]

The angle of the sun has been mentioned several times before during this time of year. Didn't stop the snow from coming down several times during the last few years here in dfw, especially Collin/Denton County northward. I certainly appreciate the advice of professional meteorologists, but we've got several prof mets saying opposing things at the moment...which to choose, which to choose? I think the best anyone has at this point is a hunch on what is going to happen.

[Palmer divide shadow]

I mentioned sun angle in terms of a bitter cold airmass.