WTIO30 FMEE 150650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 84.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS A SMALL SIZE ONE, WITH A FLUCTUATING STRUCTURE SHOWS
TEMPORALLY A BANDING PATTERN ON THE SSMIS DATA OF 2114Z.
THE 1554Z ASCAT SWATH IS NOT CENTRED BUT WE CAN SEE THAT LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE ABOUT 30 KT.
THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVOURABLE, WITH A VERY POOR POLAR
INFLOW AND QUITE NOT EXISTING MONSOON FLOW, AND DESPITE OF QUITE
CORRECT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A
GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, INTENSIFICATION MAY REMAIN SLOW. BEYOND THIS TAU,
THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM.
SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY THEN MORE SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH.=
NNNN
![Image](http://i.imgur.com/jbX6L.png)