Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[wxman57]

Current models are projecting temps aloft in the precip column to be 15-20C warmer than last weekend's event. Last weekend, the entire precip column started out well below freezing, down to -10C or so. For next weekend, models are projecting temps in the precip column between 2C at the top of the precip column and +8 to +10C (47-50F) at the bottom of the precip column. Could be some snow across north TX/OK, but moisture would be quite limited that far inland.

[Portastorm]

Current models are projecting temps aloft in the precip column to be 15-20C warmer than last weekend's event. Last weekend, the entire precip column started out well below freezing, down to -10C or so. For next weekend, models are projecting temps in the precip column between 2C at the top of the precip column and +8 to +10C (47-50F) at the bottom of the precip column. Could be some snow across north TX/OK, but moisture would be quite limited that far inland.

The key phrase here being "current models." We saw how well those models did this past weekend.

Seems the prudent course is to wait until the Wed/Thur overnight 0z cycle of model runs before latching onto any scenario.

[wxman57]

I'm experimenting with a new winter avatar, Portastorm. What do you think?

[gboudx]

Looks better than the one you had before of some dorkie looking guy on a bike.

[Portastorm]

I'm experimenting with a new winter avatar, Portastorm. What do you think?

ROTFLMAO!

Outside of the fact that you're not as cranky as Heat Miser ... I'd say it's perfect!

Oh, I needed a good laugh this morning. Thanks ... this is priceless.

[wxman57]

Oh, and keeping in character, I see that the 12Z GFS has 850mb temps from +4C to +12C across TX with Friday's storm system. That's considerably warmer than last weekend (about 8C warmer). Nothing to indicate anything but cold rain for the Houston to Austin area Friday into Saturday morning.

[Portastorm]

BTW, as we all ruminate on the next few weeks ... something to consider is the computer model 5-day and 6-day skill scores. I just checked the latest scores (Jan. 16 - Feb. 11) and here they are:

1) Euro
2) UKMet
3) Canadian
4) GFS
5) NOGAPS

Where did you find that Porta? I would like to look at that periodically since I look at the models several times daily.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

[Tireman4]

I'm experimenting with a new winter avatar, Portastorm. What do you think?

You are Mr. 101, Wxman57?

[wxman57]

You are Mr. 101, Wxman57?

It's the "Heat Miser" to counter Portastorm's "Snow Miser".

[Tireman4]

You are Mr. 101, Wxman57?

It's the "Heat Miser" to counter Portastorm's "Snow Miser".

I know, part of the song states...."


He's Mister Green Christmas
He's Mister Sun
He's Mister Heat Blister
He's Mister Hundred and One
They call me Heat Miser,
What ever I touch
Starts to melt in my clutch
He's too much!
Thank you!





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbfgVEk-mxQ

[gpsnowman]

Hey, at least he is not Room 101 from 1984 where our worst fears of a warm winter would come true!
Now our Heat Miser can sit at his desk at the Ministry of Truth and continue to feed us warm winter propaganda!

[South Texas Storms]

BTW, as we all ruminate on the next few weeks ... something to consider is the computer model 5-day and 6-day skill scores. I just checked the latest scores (Jan. 16 - Feb. 11) and here they are:

1) Euro
2) UKMet
3) Canadian
4) GFS
5) NOGAPS

Where did you find that Porta? I would like to look at that periodically since I look at the models several times daily.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/STATS.html

Thanks Porta. Didn't know they did that.

[Ntxw]

Alright so we now have the GFS which went from nonstorm to some storm, Canadian still there but on and off with the cold, Euro keeps the precip well south of I-20 mostly and not cold enough there, Ukmet came in warmer. And of course my newly favorite model DGEX still the same.

On the bright side, seeing some sun out today for once. Soaking up that vitamin C

[wxman57]

Get out of the orange juice, Ntxw.

[Portastorm]

Alright so we now have the GFS which went from nonstorm to some storm, Canadian still there but on and off with the cold, Euro keeps the precip well south of I-20 mostly and not cold enough there, Ukmet came in warmer. And of course my newly favorite model DGEX still the same.

On the bright side, seeing some sun out today for once. Soaking up that vitamin C

Memo to the North Texas satellite office of the PWC: We have a lot of work to do on these model runs. The trend is NOT our friend. Heat Miser appears to, once again, be back in control.

[wxman57]

Warm temperatures aloft this weekend will prevent the snow miser's attempt at conjuring up another winter weather event for Austin or SE TX.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Alright so we now have the GFS which went from nonstorm to some storm, Canadian still there but on and off with the cold, Euro keeps the precip well south of I-20 mostly and not cold enough there, Ukmet came in warmer. And of course my newly favorite model DGEX still the same.
On the bright side, seeing some sun out today for once. Soaking up that vitamin C

Memo to the North Texas satellite office of the PWC: We have a lot of work to do on these model runs. The trend is NOT our friend. Heat Miser appears to, once again, be back in control.

Let me see if I can help. I took a break from my siesta last week and posted a Texas Winter Cancel and then look at what it brought you all in the Hill County, Cen-Tex, and North Texas.

So..... TEXAS WINTER CANCEL!!!!

Better yet.... South Texas Winter Cancel!!!!

Now let the ghosts of 1899, 1951, 1983 and 1989 pay us visit!

[Rgv20]

I dont know about Ntxw and Porta but I'm ready for some warm temperatures! We just cracked the 70F mark for the first time in about 10 days!

[Ntxw]

Get out of the orange juice, Ntxw.

Yes, us cold mongerers can only look at that bright yellow thing from the safety of our indoor igloo. How else do we get our need of vitamin C?!

I'm contemplating on getting Mr. JB shipped to PWC for some model adjustments. We're going to need some phasing this weekend from the northern branch otherwise our storm will simply get squashed from the incoming (yet another) system.

That's the way to do it cctxhurricanewatcher! We need every hex, curse, charm we can get to counter Wxman57's voodoo!

[wxman57]

You missed my joke, Ntxw. Sunshine helps the body produce Vitamin D, not C. Vitamin C is from citrus fruits.