Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Check out the Euro Ensembles mean, that's eye candy right there.



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And the anomalies for that period coming.



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[Portastorm]

Interesting snippet from the NWS San Angelo office regarding the late week storm system. Notice they're riding with the Euro/CMC, so far.

A STRONGER CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED
PACIFIC FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING THURSDAY/S TEMPS DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL. WE SHOULD SEE A MIX OF 50S AND 60S BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. YET ANOTHER POTENT SOUTHWEST UPPER CYCLONE WILL APPROACH
THE ARA BY FRIDAY. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THE GFS TAKES A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE CMC/ECMWF. THE LATER MODELS
ARE A BIT SLOWER AND TAKE THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THIS TREND HAS
WORKED WELL THIS WINTER SO I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FRIDAY NIGHT
POPS THAT WERE INHERITED ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. I THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF
HERE BY 12Z SATURDAY SO NO MENTION WAS MADE AT THIS TIME. THE
ECMWF/CMC ARE THE COLDER OF THE MODELS WITH MORE ROBUST WET-BULBING
DEPICTED BY THESE MODELS. THIS PRODUCES LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WHEREAS THE WARMER GFS REMAINS ALL LIQUID. THE ECMWF HAS
HAD A BETTER TRACK RECORD THIS SEASON SO IT WILL BEAR WATCHING BUT
IT IS DIFFICULT TO RELY ALMOST SOLELY ON WET BULBING IN THIS AREA.
THUS...I WILL LOWER TEMPS /WITH PLENTY OF ROOM TO REDUCE FURTHER/
BUT KEEP THE PRECIP TYPE AS RAIN.

[orangeblood]

Check out the Euro Ensembles mean, that's eye candy right there.


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^ Yeah, the synoptic pattern looks very favorable for winter weather across the southern plains for Friday/Saturday and possibly all the way to the east coast. Some of these mets around here, including the local DFW stations, could be in for a rude awakening if they're GFS model huggers. Pete Delkus has a forecast for temps in the 60's on Friday/Saturday....there's potential for a possible 20+ temperature bust with a forecast like that from less than 5 days out. Hopefully they start catching on during tonight's news cast!!!

[Portastorm]

The PWC mets think it's still too early to go one way or the other. They see at least three decent upper troughs moving west to east across the Southern Plains in the next 10 days (2/15, 2/17-18, and 2/22-23). Which of these produces wintry weather? Midweek system this week unlikely. The latter two ... maybe.

Given the MJO behavior, they say after that last threat (22/23) in late February it will be all over for those of us in central and south Texas. Spring will have sprung by the end of the month.

[Texas Snowman]

^ Yeah, the synoptic pattern looks very favorable for winter weather across the southern plains for Friday/Saturday and possibly all the way to the east coast. Some of these mets around here, including the local DFW stations, could be in for a rude awakening if they're GFS model huggers. Pete Delkus has a forecast for temps in the 60's on Friday/Saturday....there's potential for a possible 20+ temperature bust with a forecast like that from less than 5 days out. Hopefully they start catching on during tonight's news cast!!!

See this past weekend's recent bust as proof. If memory is correct, as of mid-week last week, no one was calling for sunny skies and hi temps in the 30s here in the Red River Valley on Saturday. But it happened...

[Texas Snowman]

Local TV met Steve LaNore of KXII Channel 12 is definitely not hopping on any winter weather bandwagon for the next week.

A post from his forecast blog this afternoon:

"A rather windy and warm day can be expected Wednesday as gusty southwesterly winds blow through. Another shortwave aloft brings a potential for thunderstorms mid-week before quieter weather returns Thursday-Friday. The steering winds aloft will keep cold air masses well to our north this week with temperature generally at or above normal Wednesday through Friday. A slight cool-down this weekend would return us to near normal values for this time of year.

Here are the numbers:

Tonight: Locally Dense Fog/Drizzle…Lows 35-41
Tuesday: Variable Clouds….Highs 49-55
Wednesday: 50% Rain…..50/68
Thursday: Partly Cloudy…..40/60
Friday: Mostly Sunny…..38/65
Saturday: 20% Rain …..39/60
Sunday Mostly Sunny…..32/57
Monday: Partly Cloudy….33/62"

[Texas Snowman]

While I would like to see one good snow event here in North Texas, I remain highly encouraged by the simple fact that it continues to rain every few days.

After last summer, this winter has been exactly what the doctor ordered for the Red River Valley. All ponds, stock tanks, small lakes, etc. are ABOVE capacity in Grayson County, water is standing everywhere, and Lake Texoma is now nearing normal capacity for the first time since early last spring.

If that trend will continue here and elsewhere across the state, I'll be happy (although I certainly wouldn't mind it if we could get one GOOD winter weather event in before spring's arrival).

[orangeblood]

The PWC mets think it's still too early to go one way or the other. They see at least three decent upper troughs moving west to east across the Southern Plains in the next 10 days (2/15, 2/17-18, and 2/22-23). Which of these produces wintry weather? Midweek system this week unlikely. The latter two ... maybe.

Given the MJO behavior, they say after that last threat (22/23) in late February it will be all over for those of us in central and south Texas. Spring will have sprung by the end of the month.

I think the PWC should take extreme caution when making an end of winter statement like that...mother nature usually has an interesting way of balancing things out. Just look at last February around here...15-20 below normal through the first 12 days of the month and finished 0.1F above normal.

[Ntxw]

I think PWC is just taking the safe road after all the bust and lack of deliverance this year (aided by a satellite office in north texas )

[Portastorm]

I think PWC is just taking the safe road after all the bust and lack of deliverance this year (aided by a satellite office in north texas )

The PWC satellite office in North Texas didn't help things with the "one to three inches for DFW" forecast ... that's for sure!

Ntxw, we've got to come through for these good folks here. The natives are restless and their appetites have been whetted by this past weekend's wintry tease. The PWC mets are worried about Occupy protestors growing in number outside the office ... pitchforks and torches in hand.

[Texas Snowman]

I think PWC is just taking the safe road after all the bust and lack of deliverance this year (aided by a satellite office in north texas )

The PWC satellite office in North Texas didn't help things with the "one to three inches for DFW" forecast ... that's for sure!

Ntxw, we've got to come through for these good folks here. The natives are restless and their appetites have been whetted by this past weekend's wintry tease. The PWC mets are worried about Occupy protestors growing in number outside the office ... pitchforks and torches in hand.

Hey, he had the right idea. It was just off to the west and northwest of the DFW area!

As for Occupy protestors, you're safe for a while...I think.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, we've got to come through for these good folks here. The natives are restless and their appetites have been whetted by this past weekend's wintry tease. The PWC mets are worried about Occupy protestors growing in number outside the office ... pitchforks and torches in hand.

Well then, we'll just have to open the top secret frozen vault and freeze them in their tracks! Behold! The secret weapon!

06z



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18z - though this was yesterday's run, I think? - I stand corrected, it is today's! Thanks South Texas Storms



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[Portastorm]

The DGEX ... LOL ... I love it!

About as reliable as the NOGAPS but what the heck ... whatever it takes to keep the folks happy. May it verify!

[South Texas Storms]

No Ntxw, that 18z run is today's! The last 3 runs of the DGEX( yesterday's 18z, today's 6z and today's 18z) have all been very similar. I think they have all been showing some wintry precipitation for the northern half of the state.

[Portastorm]

BTW, as we all ruminate on the next few weeks ... something to consider is the computer model 5-day and 6-day skill scores. I just checked the latest scores (Jan. 16 - Feb. 11) and here they are:

1) Euro
2) UKMet
3) Canadian
4) GFS
5) NOGAPS

[South Texas Storms]

BTW, as we all ruminate on the next few weeks ... something to consider is the computer model 5-day and 6-day skill scores. I just checked the latest scores (Jan. 16 - Feb. 11) and here they are:

1) Euro
2) UKMet
3) Canadian
4) GFS
5) NOGAPS

Where did you find that Porta? I would like to look at that periodically since I look at the models several times daily.

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B tweets this evening:


@BigJoeBastardi: "That being said, 18z ensembles were impressive. We may not have the cold of Europe, but we are going to have some winter challenges."

@BigJoeBastardi: "The battle royale continues in the MJO as Euro/UKMET/JMAN insist that winter is hear to stay,while NCEP MJO leave door open for collapse."

@BigJoeBastardi: "Ensembles trying to phase storm on East coast this weekend. Pattern has gone to the much more active look needed for some winter weather."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im in AZ for a couple weeks.... If it snows while im not there i will be suicidal

[somethingfunny]

^ Yeah, the synoptic pattern looks very favorable for winter weather across the southern plains for Friday/Saturday and possibly all the way to the east coast. Some of these mets around here, including the local DFW stations, could be in for a rude awakening if they're GFS model huggers. Pete Delkus has a forecast for temps in the 60's on Friday/Saturday....there's potential for a possible 20+ temperature bust with a forecast like that from less than 5 days out. Hopefully they start catching on during tonight's news cast!!!

See this past weekend's recent bust as proof. If memory is correct, as of mid-week last week, no one was calling for sunny skies and hi temps in the 30s here in the Red River Valley on Saturday. But it happened...

Pete Delkus is terrible. See what he had to say about the possible winter storm on Friday night:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIE8JL96XD4[/youtube]

WFAA is only worth watching with Steve McCauley doing weather on the weekends and during Delkus's frequent vacations. McCauley is awesome, I wish I had a video of his segment back on Saturday or Sunday last weekend... he didn't call for snow exactly, but he was the only one forecasting anything other than mild sunny weather this past weekend. Said something about a ULL, and a shortwave coming down on the jet stream, joining together to spark possibly big thunderstorms Saturday. He said "It would be a setup for snow, but this arctic airmass should be going east of us"
The arctic airmass surprised everybody by extending over to the Southern Plains, and I think the snowpack from that monster snowstorm across Denver/CO/KS/NE last weekend may have had something to do with that.

[Portastorm]

No love from ANY of the computer models from the 0z cycle for this weekend's system, except for the highly suspect 6z DGEX.

So it goes. Let's see what the 12z cycle says.