Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Ntxw]

Give him a little false hope Wxman . Better than no hope! It's his once a winter 'fantasy snow' that EWX gives him so that he may remain out of therapy. Usually it's always west or north of him as it plays out anyway Shh! I think Ewx was talking more about the hills west of Aus. Certain models do indicate possibly wintry stuff near Del Rio up to San Angelo and east towards Waco (lighter as you head east).

[Portastorm]

OK ... OK ... now wait just one, cotton-pickin' minute ... that bike-riding meteorologist from Houston told me that winter was over. But why do I have ice and snow in my forecast for Sunday morning?!

Let me know when the snow starts in Austin/San Antonio. Models indicate very little moisture below 15-20 thousand feet. The cloud layer will be between 20 and 25 thousand feet overhead on Sunday morning. Sure it can be snowing up there, those are cirrus clouds - composed of ice crystals. But I certainly would not put snow in the forecast for someone living on the ground.

Trust me ... you know I will!

You've gotta admit that guidance from several days ago was incorrect and we've (Austin area, at least) trended colder and colder in the last 48 hours. This morning's progged high for today is upper 40s. Yesterday it was low 50s. Two days ago mid 50s.

Rest assured, the PWC does not have the snow plow crews on alert or anything like that. Considering how this so-called winter has gone, I'd be happy for 5 minutes of sleet falling.

[Portastorm]

Give him a little false hope Wxman . Better than no hope! It's his once a winter 'fantasy snow' that EWX gives him so that he may remain out of therapy. Usually it's always west or north of him as it plays out anyway Shh! I think Ewx was talking more about the hills west of Aus. Certain models do indicate possibly wintry stuff near Del Rio up to San Angelo and east towards Waco (lighter as you head east).

And you ... you be quiet up there! Don't be hatin' on the PWC!

You're just looking for reasons to change your avatar. Two days ago you were dissing the PWC, saying we didn't come through. I've given y'all at least a chance of snow.

[Ntxw]

No worries the avatar is almost guaranteed safety . Poker bluff PWC needed some waking up after so much drinking ya know. I was on your bandwagon back in late Jan about the Feb 10-20th frame! Just got a little angsty is all

[wxman57]

Imagine that - lows near FREEZING and highs only in the upper 40s in February. This that big Arctic dump everyone many were so excited about 2 weeks ago, and my only chance for Bush airport to see 29F for the lowest temp in February, as per my forecast. Heading out on the bikes in 2-3 hours - all bundled up.

[Tireman4]

For the PWC and Wxman 57...


Mr Snow Miser....the myth, the legend..the greatest of all...


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPrbccEdI5o

[Palmer divide shadow]

Looks like all the models and experts were wrong.this front came in much much stronger than anticipated.mid singe digits along parts of the front range with light snow.forecast showed mid to uppe thirties all week for today.

[Ntxw]

12z Canadian and Ukmet pretty much now is identical to the recent Euro runs. I'm pretty confident north Texas and west Texas is going to see snow. I do question a bit about precip type at times but given the fact cold air came first, I'm inclined to say snow or rain even though 540 thickness is up north and minimal ice. This looks like El Nino style overrunning. Storm isn't very strong but the roaring subtropical jet is making itself known. If 12z Euro comes out shortly with the same idea, today could be used to fine tune detail 'amounts' and for what areas. GFS is still a little warm but I would expect it so for this kind of event. I would be surprised if the NWS did not consider putting up winter storm watches for the immediate areas along the Red River first tonight and NW counties.

[iorange55]

I've been buried with work (new job) but I have been checking the forum every few days. Do I finally hear that there is a chance of snow? I'll have to check the models to see for myself.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro came in colder. Snow breaks out in the big bend area near Del Rio and flakes are even possible near SA on this run. It has a small patch of flakes for Portastorm

[Ntxw]

HIRES (high resolution) short range model looks good to go. It has some convective banding which was hinted on other guidance as well.

HIRES

[gpsnowman]

It is 36 outside right now in Dallas. The forecasted high was 42-44 depending what you looked at. It does not appear we will reach that. I wonder what that will do to the temps tomorrow and what, if anything, does it do to help our chances with winter fun? It may be our last chance.
By the way, welcome back iorange55. Have not heard from you in a while. Your input is always appreciated.

[iorange55]

It is 36 outside right now in Dallas. The forecasted high was 42-44 depending what you looked at. It does not appear we will reach that. I wonder what that will do to the temps tomorrow and what, if anything, does it do to help our chances with winter fun? It may be our last chance.
By the way, welcome back iorange55. Have not heard from you in a while. Your input is always appreciated.

Thank you, I've missed the forum! Yeah, the temps have been busting the past day or two it seems. I'll have to look more into the models before I make any predictions or anything. But, the trend does seem to be in "our" favor. Could be a nice little surprise.

It wouldn't stick around long, but oh well!

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF with a really close call for the Austin/SA area regarding winter weather..

000
WWUS84 KEWX 111604
SPSEWX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111900-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
1004 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...

AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS
GULF MOISTURE OVERRUNS A DRY COLD AIRMASS. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
DROPPING TOWARDS SUNRISE...SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH
SLEET. AFTER SUNRISE...THE OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC
FORECAST PROFILES SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AT THE TIME OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE GULF MOISTURE THAT OVERRUNS SUNDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...AND
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OR SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES DURING THE DAY...PRECIPITATION WILL
BECOME ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

MODEL TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNT UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL
WINTRY MIX EVENT SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

[somethingfunny]

Snow chase supplies checklist:

[Rgv20]

Midland area looks to get some decent winter weather out of this storm..

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS... THE
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND MUCH OF THE TRANS PECOS...

.SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR HAS INFILTRATED THE AREA STARTING...AND BY
SUNDAY MORNING...WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
AS AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA...A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA A SLEET SNOW MIX IS
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS IS TYPICAL WITH
WINTER STORM SYSTEMS THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH RESPECT TO
ONSET...END TIMING AND WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
APPEARS TO BE WEST OF A LINE FROM LAMESA TO ODESSA TO PECOS.
RESIDENTS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM AND BE PREPARED
TO TAKE ACTION.

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-058>063-067>070-074-075-258-
121100-
/O.CON.KMAF.WS.A.0002.120212T1200Z-120213T0000Z/
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...PECOS...MENTONE...RED BLUFF LAKE...
KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...MONAHANS...CRANE...
MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...FORT DAVIS...
FORT STOCKTON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
150 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012 /1250 PM MST SAT FEB 11 2012/

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* EVENT...SLEET...AND SNOW.

* TIMING...SUNDAY

* IMPACTS...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW...AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
MAY IMPACT THE AREA. SNOW PACKED ROADS MAY MAKE TRAVEL
DIFFICULT.

* SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND ONE
QUARTER INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

[Portastorm]

Late this morning, NWSFO Austin/San Antonio was considering hoisting a Winter Weather Advisory for the Hill Country and adjacent portions of south central Texas for Sunday morning. Main impact would be some very light accumulations on elevated surfaces/bridges. Will be interesting to see if they follow suite later today.

I like those model trends, Ntxw!

[Ntxw]

Something tells me we will have much more to talk about in the near term. I agree with Ntxw in that all of the teleconnection signs are looking more promising and the longer range modeling is consistently suggesting the "potential" for colder, below normal seasonal temps beyond next weekend.

Full scale pattern change? Nah, doubt it. But I do think we could see a 10-14 period full of promise.

As we await the much anticipated press conference out of PWC (unless administration is out tasting snowflakes), I wanted to bring this into light. Good job Portastorm

[Portastorm]

Appreciate the post and remember that we both thought the Feb. 10-20 period would be "active" and entertaining. Looks that way right now.

The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC are intently studying models, er computer models, and anticipate a press event later this evening on tomorrow's event.

[Rgv20]

There is a possibility of some frozen precipitation as far south as Webb County (Laredo, Texas) on Sunday Morning.

000
FXUS64 KCRP 112043
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
243 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING AND
LIFTING NORTHEAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO INCREASE OUT WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT INITIALLY IT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP
BENEATH 700MB. BETWEEN 12Z-18Z CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
FINALLY LOWER TO LESS THAN 10MB ON THE 290/295K SURFACES FROM I-37
WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE SURFACES AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES TO
AROUND 30 KTS. SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOP FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA AS THIS
HAPPENS...BECOMING LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA IN
THE AFTERNOON. ONE NOTE...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING IN A WINTRY MIX
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS LA SALLE AND NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTIES
INDICATE THE PRECIP MELTING THROUGH A LAYER THAT REMAINS ABOVE
FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...IF THERE IS
INITIALLY SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING BETWEEN 900-800MB THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SOUNDING TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THIS LAYER BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR A VERY BRIEF MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA SALLE
AND NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS TOMORROW MAY NOT
MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY AND
RIO GRANDE PLAINS.