#17 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Feb 09, 2012 2:17 pm
Say hi to Giovanna:
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 64.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/10 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/10 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/11 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/11 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
FOR LATEST HOURS, SYSTEM SHOWS AN IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN WITH A 100/120
NM DIAMETER (DT AT 3.0). AT 1530Z, SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED GIOVANNA BY
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. WINDS EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN
CALIBRATED THANKS TO 1738Z ASCAT SWATH. MSLP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN
RELATIONSHIP TO 23946 BUOY OBS AT 1710Z.
SYSTEM IS GENERALLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED IN THE
SOUTH-EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK BY
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING.
ON SATURDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BELT IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND 60 TAU, TRACK SHOULD
RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS TRACK. ECMWF FORECAST THAT SYSTEM WILL GO DOWN MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY (RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK).
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION UP TO SUNDAY. OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY SOUTHWARD.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY AND AFTER, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. CONSEQUENTLY INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND
EVEN A BIT REDUCE BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR THAT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND OF THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRING GIOVANNA VERY CLOSELY
SOUTH OF SAINT-BRANDON IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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- Daniel