Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Very interesting forecast discussion out of NWSFO Austin/San Antonio this morning:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CST MON FEB 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SRN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEAK SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PROMOTE OVERRUNNING
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTUBANCES POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WILL KEEP ON THE
LOW SIDE OF HIGHS AS THE MODEL DATA APPEARS TO BE RUNNNING A DRY
AND WARM BIAS IN THIS PATTERN. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN A REINFORCING FRONT ARRIVES ON THE HEELS OF A POLAR
DISTURBANCE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BRIEF CLEARING COULD
OCCUR FROM THE NORTH...BUT MORE LIKELY THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE REINFORCED FROM THE WEST WHEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO BAJA CA WEDNESDAY. MODEL HAVE TRENDED STRONGER WITH A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA WITH A SHARP MERIDIONAL
FLOW PUSHING AND ENHANCING THE TUE/WED SURFACE RIDGE OVER TX. THIS
PATTERN COULD POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A WINTER PRECIP
PATTERN OVER CENTRAL TX...BUT FOR NOW MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE
SOUTHERN US THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS MORE COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY WEATHER.

[wxman57]

Yes, model consensus says temps above freezing for the southern half of TX and now the models say no precip for TX next weekend. No winter weather next weekend. Euro says "watch out" next Wednesday across Texas, but latest GFS disagrees and points to another strong disturbance the weekend after next. The models are still clueless beyond the next 3-5 days.

[orangeblood]

Unfortunately, models are trending towards the Euro....no phasing = no storm for later this week

[Portastorm]

12z GFS model stuff ...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[orangeblood]

12z GFS model stuff ...

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6420/12zgfs850mbtslpp12count.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Hmmmm....looks strangely similar to the Euro, which appears to be getting a better handle on this pattern.

[Ntxw]

I still like the Feb 10th-20th idea Portastorm had awhile ago. MJO is at phase 7 (one of the strongest I've seen) and will be heading into 8 by the end of this week give or take a few days. What does that mean? That means the eastern trough will likely retrograde slowly with each passing system.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

[wxman57]

None of the models is indicating any really cold air coming out of Canada for the next 10-15 days. Current analysis indicates air tracking from NW Canada to the Great Lakes, but there really isn't much cold air involved. After this week, the pattern appears to revert back to the pattern of the winter - zonal flow with occasional upper lows moving along the Gulf Coast. But without much cold air, they may be more severe storm producers than snow producers (after next weekend).

[Ntxw]

revert back to the pattern of the winter - zonal flow

You are absolutely correct in that the models do not show brutal cold! However I will have to respectfully disagree with this particular statement. The very +PNA says we are NOT in the same pattern as what it has been this winter. At least not above normal anomalies. Cool and wet appears to be the choice for Texas. The Alaskan vortex is not present in virtually any of the models, so I would not tend to think of true zonal flow over an given stretch for the next 2 perhaps 3 weeks.

[wxman57]

revert back to the pattern of the winter - zonal flow

You are absolutely correct in that the models do not show brutal cold! However I will have to respectfully disagree with this particular statement. The very +PNA says we are NOT in the same pattern as what it has been this winter. At least not above normal anomalies. Cool and wet appears to be the choice for Texas. The Alaskan vortex is not present in virtually any of the models, so I would not tend to think of true zonal flow over an given stretch for the next 2 perhaps 3 weeks.

It's not exactly the same pattern, but the longer range Euro/GFS indicate a change back to a large polar vortex with westerly flow into Alaska and across Canada vs. NW flow coming from western Canada to the Great Lakes. Nothing remotely close to cross-Polar flow. True, the part of the vortex across eastern Canada digs a bit more to the south across the Lakes, but that's not going to bring any significant cold to Texas.

[Ntxw]

I'll take these 50s for highs wxman . Better than those 80s we had last week! I hope it stays through May .

Not sure if this belongs in this thread or tropics, but if the MJO wave makes it way around the planet and continues, I think it will have implications regarding La Nina/El Nino for next winter. Based on what I have read, strong MJO waves can ease the easterlies cause by La Nina and allow warmer waters from the west Pacific to expand.

[Portastorm]

revert back to the pattern of the winter - zonal flow

You are absolutely correct in that the models do not show brutal cold! However I will have to respectfully disagree with this particular statement. The very +PNA says we are NOT in the same pattern as what it has been this winter. At least not above normal anomalies. Cool and wet appears to be the choice for Texas. The Alaskan vortex is not present in virtually any of the models, so I would not tend to think of true zonal flow over an given stretch for the next 2 perhaps 3 weeks.

It's not exactly the same pattern, but the longer range Euro/GFS indicate a change back to a large polar vortex with westerly flow into Alaska and across Canada vs. NW flow coming from western Canada to the Great Lakes. Nothing remotely close to cross-Polar flow. True, the part of the vortex across eastern Canada digs a bit more to the south across the Lakes, but that's not going to bring any significant cold to Texas.

But sir, you are basing your warm mongerer forecast on the very models and in the very range of which you have said you have little or no confidence right now! What to believe?!

[hriverajr]

He is (probably) basing it on persistence which statistically is somewhat more probable than going out on a limb considering the model consistency, but using those same currently very very unreliable models to this point to support his warm mongerer statements. The pattern of this winter would indicate he is probably right, but you never know. I predict a cool rainy spring and summer to mess with his rides (-removed-) hehe

[Rgv20]

Looks like a cool rainy mid week to early part of the weekend for the RGV.

Brownsville Afternoon Discussion

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE LONG TERM REMAINS
ACTIVE AS THE FLOW OVER THE CONUS/N AMERICA REMAINS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED. SUBTROPICAL JET REMAINS IN TACT WITH AN ACTIVE SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCE RATHER HIGH WITH ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COOLER THEN THE NORMAL
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70 DEGREES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH OR ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CWA
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DIVERGENT FLOW TO BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW LATITUDE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO. POP FORECAST REMAINS HIGH IN ACCORDANCE TO
CURRENT FORECAST AND MEXMOS WHICH HAS SHOWN AN UPWARD TREND WITH
THE LATEST 12Z RUN. QPF VALUES ALSO ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE AND OTHER
INCH OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WED-SAT. HPC 5 DAY OUTLOOK
ALSO INDICATING 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE VALLEY. AS FOR THE
TEMPERATURES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER BUT RAW DATA IS EVEN
COLDER. LATEST FORECAST HAS TRENDED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF MEXMOS
AND MORE TOWARDS THE RAW GFS. UPSTREAM AIR MASS IS SIMILAR TOO
WHAT MOVED THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY. ADD IN THE CLOUDS
RAIN AND NORTHEAST WINDS AND LITTLE MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A
BRIEF REPRIEVE ON SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ANOTHER SURGE OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW AND GULF MOISTURE INTRODUCES ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEE THE MARINE DISCUSSION FOR POSSIBLE COASTAL FLOODING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

[gpsnowman]

Steve Mcauley (WFAA Dallas) mentions some interesting signals after the current forecast week in one of his earlier tweets. Our window is barely open and closing quickly. All I ask is one shot at some snow to end wxman57's horrible heat curse. I can't wait for next winter so all of us snow lovers can exact revenge for all the grief he has given us this year!

[somethingfunny]

I really won't be too surprised to see this winter throw a shutout at us. It wasn't a no-hitter or a perfect game because of the December 4th/5th event (below) but still the sort of performance we really ought to expect to see, going up against the ace pitching staff of the ~33° latitude we live on. We live farther south than Los Angeles, Phoenix, Atlanta...roughly the same latitude as Savannah and Bermuda. What are we expecting, a home run every game?

Here's a map showing the snowfall totals for the only snowstorm we've had so far this winter:



These are the snowfall totals for North Texas in February 2011 (and, if I'm not mistaken, also for the entire 2010-2011 winter)



Here is a similar map produced by FWD which covers the entire 2009-2010 winter. I'll never be tired of viewing this one.



I can't seem to find a map for the 2008-2009 winter (but I remember it being pretty lame, although we did get about a half inch of sleet mixed with freezing rain in late January 2009 where I lived at the time, near Sherman) ... and I can't find complete season maps for any preceding winter either. If anyone is interested, I could find the time to make some using old data from official reporting stations.

This is a fantastic resource for North Texas snow history: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/?n=dsnows

DFW averages about 1.1 inches of snow each winter. We have been DAMN LUCKY!

[Portastorm]

Nothing terribly exciting this model as you look at the 0z model suite. NCEP in its morning discussion basically said that there is so much model variation that it is hard to trust any of them, basically echoing what wxman57 has been telling us and from what we have seen ourselves.

Admittedly, it is hard to generate much enthusiasm or excitement for a taste of real winter when the models, none of them, aren’t showing it consistently. That being said, I just cannot believe that a negative AO, a positive PNA, and a MJO 7-8-1 pattern won’t yield some kind of winter event for the southern Plains between now and February 20th. Those are all the classic teleconnections for such an event. So in the words of one of my favorite 80s songs by the underrated The Call … “I still believe.”

Meanwhile, wxman57 will continue to score touchdowns and do his celebratory end zone touchdown dance on our ends as we see no real signs of an actual winter.

[Ntxw]

Depressing to look at those graphics. That 1.1 average is misleading we usually get more than that. The 90s during the warm pdo was blank and is a huge chunk of the new estimates, its cold pdo now and we average more than that during. We sit in the middle of the continent so extremes here are more often seen than the coastal cities you posted. Dallas often times has wilder temp swings hotter than miami and colder than new york city several times a winter/summer. Houston is swingy moreso than other gulf coast cities with more snow events than say new orleans or mobile.

Models have lost the late week system, looks like the euro wins out short range. But they all hint at more storminess shortly after. Hey! We are almost at October style sun angles!

[wxman57]

Actually, it's already quite a bit too cold for my taste. Would at least like to see the sun for a while. Looking at the models overnight, it appear that there is agreement ONLY out to about Friday/Saturday. Beyond then, it's every model for itself. I don't see any real signs of a break in the current cool, rainy pattern. There's no evidence of any significant cold building in western or northwestern Canada over the next few weeks. Beyond then, March is fast-approaching. Texas has quite likely already seen the coldest weather it will see for this winter. Time to start thinking about springtime warmth and summer heat!

[DonWrk]

I've already thrown in the towel for this winter and already looking forward to next winter. Hope it's an early one! Much rather have an early winter than late.

[Portastorm]

I've already thrown in the towel for this winter and already looking forward to next winter. Hope it's an early one! Much rather have an early winter than late.

I think a lot of people have ... and, frankly, I don't blame them. And I'm probably 7-10 days away from joining you!

It has been an interesting season. While disappointing for those of us who want(ed) a few wintry events, I personally have learned a lot more about weather and teleconnections, etc., as a result of what occurred (and what didn't occur).