#127 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 26, 2012 8:07 am
WTIO30 FMEE 261233 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 39.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 200 NW: 240
48 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 170
64 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 39.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 44.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/30 12 UTC: 35.5 S / 49.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/31 12 UTC: 38.0 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BIG EYE, BECOMING BETTER DEFINED, WITHIN A
COLDER CDO, THE SYSTEM IS NOW INTENSIFYING.
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF AN
EFFICIENT POLAR OUTFLOW DURING THE NEXT 24/36 HOURS, BUT LACK OFENERGETIC POTENTIAL OF SST SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THIS TAU.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SYSTEM MIGHT TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARD WITH
A QUITE SLOW SPEED UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
EXISTING IN ITS EAST. OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE.
ON AND AFTER 36 TAU, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AGAIN SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEP
TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL FIRST UNDERGOING MORE AND MORE COOLER SST
THEN A STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
CONDITIONS MORE AND MORE UNFAVOURABLE.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
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