![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc12/SHEM/98S.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20120122.1214.mtsat2.x.ir1km.98SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-94S-1334E.100pc.jpg)
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre
Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 22 January 2012
Valid until the end of Wednesday.
Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A
Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located off the north Arnhem coast. The low is
expected to move slowly west or southwest during the next few days and may enter
the Timor Sea.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.
Wednesday: Moderate.
NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E].
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone
DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.