#80 Postby Macrocane » Mon Jan 23, 2012 5:39 pm
WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 39.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 39.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.0S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.9S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.8S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.1S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 28.5S 41.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 31.7S 43.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 39.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN APPROXIMATELY 12NM WIDE EYE AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-
INTENSIFY. A 231504Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS STRONG BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RELATIVELY THINNER, MULTIPLE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 5-10
KNOTS, VERY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AS
DEPICTED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO
29 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH A POCKET OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
CURRENTLY UNDER THE LLCC. TC FUNSO IS BEING STEERED SOUTHWARDS BY
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THIS STEERING PATH
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE
EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, TC 08S SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-
CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM
THE WEST INFLUENCES THE TRACK MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE. AS THIS TROUGH PASSES BY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
INCREASE AND THEREFORE BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAUS 96-120,
TC FUNSO SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS FORECAST DIFFERS FROM THE
PREVIOUS DUE TO THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO AND EVENTUAL EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOW BEGUN TO COME IN-LINE
WITH THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN RE-CURVE THE SYSTEM
MORE QUICKLY INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH SHORTLY. THIS FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND MODEL
CONSENSUS AND PORTRAYS THE SLOWER RE-CURVE SCENARIO PRODUCED BY THE
SECOND, DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
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