#6 Postby Chacor » Wed Jan 18, 2012 8:27 am
WTIO30 FMEE 181241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2012/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 69.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/19 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.0-
THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS OWN WEST-SOU
TH-WESTWARDS MOTION, IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR EXIS
TING OVER THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS HOWEVER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CURVED BAND.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW REMAINS RATHER GOOD BUT INDIRECT DUE TO THE ITCZ IN THE NORTH..
POLEWARD INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THURSDAY 19 IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING IN THE S
UBTROPICAL BELT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN AFTER THAT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY BENEFIT FROM 2 GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE EQUATORWARD
ONE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE POLEWARD ONE SHO
ULD IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY.
VERTICAL EASTERLY WINDSHEAR REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
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