Lower left corner:
![Image](http://img825.imageshack.us/img825/9006/xxirmet5.gif)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6
2.A POSITION 2012/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 53.4 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 440 SW: 330 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/12 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 54.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/01/12 12 UTC: 25.6 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/01/13 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/01/13 12 UTC: 24.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/01/14 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/01/14 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/15 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/01/16 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 33.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW MONITORED YESTERDAY SOUTH-EAST OFF MADAGASCAR(DISTINCT
FROM EX-CHANDA WHICH FILLED UP OVER MADAGASCAR YESTERDAY) HAS
DEEPEN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
LAST SATELLITE PICTURES AND ASCAT DATA AT 0510Z SHOW AN ASYMMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN WITH WINDS BY THE ORDER OF 20/25KT REACHING
30KT , LOCALLY 35KT, IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, UP TO 240NM FROM THE
CENTRE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LOCATED AT MORE THAN 2° SOUTH-EAST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVERGENCE LINE EAST OF THE LOW OVER LA
REUNION ISLAND IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS MAURITIUS ISLAND AS ITS
INTENSITY IS WEAKENING.
ENERGETIC SUPPLY IS POOR WITH SST BY THE ORDER OF 26°.
MONSOON FLOW SUPPLIES THE NORTH-EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN SECTOR, ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE, SYSTEM BEING LOCATED ON THE
NORTH-EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-EASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12HOURS,
AND WESTWARD BEYOND, OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRENGTHENING
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. SO SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TOMORROW
THURSDAY, BUT MONSOON INFLOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM IS SHIFTING
WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POOR FOR THE NEXT DAYS.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SOUTH-EAST
AND THEN WEST TRACK.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DISTURBANCE
DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ANTICYCLONE.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.