IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:06pm WST on Monday the 9th of January 2012
Valid until midnight WST Thursday
Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is strengthening over tropical waters to the north of the
state, and a weak tropical low is starting to form near 12S 118E. The low is
likely to move steadily southwards and approach the Pilbara coast over the next
few days. If the low remains over the ocean, there is a chance it could develop
into a tropical cyclone later on Wednesday or on Thursday, although it is more
likely to remain below cyclone intensity. However, regardless of whether the low
develops into a tropical cyclone, thunderstorm activity is expected to increase
over the central and eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley over the next few
days, with some heavy rainfall and squally conditions likely.
Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :Moderate
Another tropical low may develop along the monsoon trough near 10S 105E on
Tuesday. It is expected to move eastwards and remain weak through the outlook
period.
Likelihood of this low becoming a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :Low
Thursday :Low
There are no other significant lows in the region and none are expected to
develop over the next three days.
NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
![Image](http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/SHEM/92S.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20120109.0900.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.92SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-117S-1189E.100pc.jpg)
![Image](http://a.yfrog.com/img863/7070/tx1.png)