Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Snowshoe]

Out of curiosity, do any of you guys follow snow-day.org? He posts his thoughts about every winter storm in the U.S. and puts out maps on his thoughts. I recommend his site!

[iorange55]

I can't seem to get the Euro to come up right now (not completely sure if it has updated yet)

It's nice to see the GFS might be slightly trending in the right direction. I am encouraged that wxman57 didn't complete dismiss the idea and that Larry thinks we have a decent shot at some light snow.

Hopefully there is more good news tomorrow. I have my doubts, though.

[somethingfunny]

Curious 0z run of the Euro, it denies DFW but doesn't deny snow for Texas altogether. Its' snowfall product drops a dusting on the Hill Country west of Austin, just a long field goal away from Portastorm. It also shows an odd little blip of 3" snowfall just east of Waco, surrounded by nothing, but what do you expect from raw model data 4 days out on the microcast level. This is all at hour 87, or about 9am on the 24th. It's more encouraging than I expected it to be tonight.

[Ntxw]

Amazing how diff 6z is from 0z lol I like it. Lets hope 12z adds more surface features

[Kelarie]

from Shreveport NWS regarding this week...

...WHETHER THIS MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN
SUFFICIENTLY FOR LIGHT PCPN INTO THE CHRISTMAS WEEKEND IS STILL
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH LOW POPS TO REFLECT THIS. RUN TO RUN
MODELS CANNOT YET AGREE ON SUFFICENT COLD LAYER FOR ANY MIXED
PCPN...SHOULD ANY PCPN OCCUR. WILL NOT INCUDE ANY MENTION OF
WINTRY MIX AT THIS TIME./VII/.

[TexasF6]

From Austin/SA:..THIS SECTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT SETS THE TABLE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEATHER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT INFLUENCED BY THE SNOW PACK ACCUMULATED RECENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ARRIVE TO COINCIDE WITH A POLAR DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT THE LOWEST 5000 FT SHOULD DRY OUT BY THE TIME THE MID-LEVEL LIFTING PROCESSES REACH WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FILL IN OR SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS...ONLY A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES EXPECTED TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...SO WILL HOLD OF MENTION OF PRECIP...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS THIS FAR OUT.

[weatherdude1108]

From Austin/SA:..THIS SECTION OF THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT SETS THE TABLE FOR THE HOLIDAY WEATHER. ANOTHER COLD FRONT INFLUENCED BY THE SNOW PACK ACCUMULATED RECENTLY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ARRIVE TO COINCIDE WITH A POLAR DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE FROM THE ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. LIGHT DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT THE LOWEST 5000 FT SHOULD DRY OUT BY THE TIME THE MID-LEVEL LIFTING PROCESSES REACH WEST CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FILL IN OR SHEAR APART AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX. USING A MODEL CONSENSUS...ONLY A SLIM POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES EXPECTED TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY...SO WILL HOLD OF MENTION OF PRECIP...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW A VARIETY OF SCENARIOS THIS FAR OUT.

I was just about to post this. I just saw it. More times than not, the moisture and cold air are not in the right places at the right times. A big exception was 1985 of course. I've had dreams of 1985 happening again. More like wishes.

[iorange55]

12Z NAM looks very good :]

[Ntxw]

Nam changes tune and has a full blown cutoff low coming into west tx with a precip shield expanding on the 12z. This is risky though because warm air will be pumped northward so better hope the low tracks overhead and stays intact

[orangeblood]

Nam changes tune and has a full blown cutoff low coming into west tx with a precip shield expanding on the 12z. This is risky though because warm air will be pumped northward so better hope the low tracks overhead and stays intact

Yep, right on cue the NAM starts coming around to a more realistic scenario given the current pattern. I still think this trough/upper low is too far north (it's still handing too much energy off to the northern stream)...it should dig further south and track across central Texas, imo

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

Short range ensembles are better than nam. Most wetter and colder 32-34 surface dfw 850s good, definitely in abilene

[iorange55]

Short range ensembles are better than nam. Most wetter and colder 32-34 surface dfw 850s good, definitely in abilene

Santa is trying his best to give us our snow miracle. I think the trends will continue to go in our favor. I think the focus will shift to temperatures now and not moisture, but I don't think it'll be a problem. Like orangeblood, I think the low will track a little further south.

[Portastorm]

Nam changes tune and has a full blown cutoff low coming into west tx with a precip shield expanding on the 12z. This is risky though because warm air will be pumped northward so better hope the low tracks overhead and stays intact

Yep, right on cue the NAM starts coming around to a more realistic scenario given the current pattern. I still think this trough/upper low is too far north (it's still handing too much energy off to the northern stream)...it should dig further south and track across central Texas, imo

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I seem to recall the NAM have similar problems last year in that cutoff lows (lows digging in the base of the trough) were usually progged too far north.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was just about to ask why the storm is kicking northward so quickly. I want some snow

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Anyone else seeing the blocking taking place next week into January? Could we be set up for a huge January in terms of Winter Weather? That would be an about face from just about every forecast out there.

[Portastorm]

Out of curiosity, do any of you guys follow snow-day.org? He posts his thoughts about every winter storm in the U.S. and puts out maps on his thoughts. I recommend his site!

Thanks for the link Snowshoe. I never heard of this site until I saw your post. Checked it out earlier this morning and it looks like a good resource. Thanks!

[Ntxw]

Breaking News: A legion of storm2kers have commenced at PWC chanting "Occupy PWC!" Led by Tireman4, the protesters demand the head in office to inject data into the Op models for a white Christmas!

[iorange55]

12z GFS through 45hrs already is looking better, to me at least. It's still playing catch up, though.

[Portastorm]

Breaking News: A legion of storm2kers have commenced at PWC chanting "Occupy PWC!" Led by Tireman4, the protesters demand the head in office to inject data into the Op models for a white Christmas!

The Portastorm Weather Center will be issuing a statement later this afternoon about the chances of a White Christmas in Texas.

[Ntxw]

GFS sure is handing off a lot of energy north and east, its playing santa and sharing the wealth