Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Does anybody think we will have a chance of some winter precip late this weekend?

[aggiecutter]

More snow developing to the west of Texarkana. The snow event earlier this evening covered car tops and roofs.

Current Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Portastorm]

Does anybody think we will have a chance of some winter precip late this weekend?

I hate to be the guy serving the Poo Poo Platter tonight ... but ... forecasted temps in North Texas and even out in the Big Country don't appear to be cold enough for any snow or sleet this weekend. Just looks too warm. Right now.

[somethingfunny]

Link to photo album of my snow chase

Here are some pictures I took with my phone when I went hunting for snowflakes Sunday night. Driving I-30 through Dallas and Fort Worth in heavy rain with trucks who couldn't find their lanes was brutal, but once I escaped that and headed NW on State Highway 199, the trip became worth it. By the time I crossed Eagle Mountain Lake it had mixed over to mainly sleet, and at Springtown it began snowing. Pictures from Springtown:





The snow almost immediately stuck to the roads and I decided it would be better to head north to Decatur than NW out to Jacksboro. If you drive carefully and don't mash your pedals or your wheel, driving on snow isn't that difficult. It was really coming down though.

Pictures from Decatur/Bridgeport:

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v126/ ... 071126.jpg

So, Santa can't hold up to an inch of snow and sleet? That does not portend well to Christmas morning.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Does anyone think we will get some moisture around the Friday/Saturday timeframe?

[wxman57]

Does anyone think we will get some moisture around the Friday/Saturday timeframe?

No one can answer your question because you don't identify where "we" are in your profile.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Does anyone think we will get some moisture around the Friday/Saturday timeframe?

No one can answer your question because you don't identify where "we" are in your profile.

Sorry for not being specific; just north of Dallas.

[wxman57]

Does anyone think we will get some moisture around the Friday/Saturday timeframe?

No one can answer your question because you don't identify where "we" are in your profile.

Sorry for not being specific; just north of Dallas.

Can you update your profile with your location?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I will update it when I get to my desktop this evening

[Portastorm]

Thanks for sharing your "snow chase" with us, somethingfunny. Those are some great shots!

[ndale]

Thanks for sharing your "snow chase" with us, somethingfunny. Those are some great shots!

Yes, thanks, those were nice scenes. Reminds those of us in south central Tx what winter CAN look like, since we don't see many of those scenes here.

[HockeyTx82]

chirp chirp chirp chirp................... I hear nothing but crickets.......................

The long range GFS if fun to look at.

[iorange55]

chirp chirp chirp chirp................... I hear nothing but crickets.......................

The long range GFS if fun to look at.

I know, but I always feel bad talking about models 12+ days out. They always change and make you look foolish.

[HockeyTx82]

Just for kicks, and also so I can learn a little. At hour 384 on the GFS run from today at 12Z is that showing a massive intrusion on cold air? I know that it could change the next run but just for learning purposes is that the kind of map that if we see run after run do we here in Texas need to brace for it? I like most everyone don't put any faith in long range but I am just curious.

Thanks!

[iorange55]

Just for kicks, and also so I can learn a little. At hour 384 on the GFS run from today at 12Z is that showing a massive intrusion on cold air? I know that it could change the next run but just for learning purposes is that the kind of map that if we see run after run do we here in Texas need to brace for it? I like most everyone don't put any faith in long range but I am just curious.

Thanks!

I don't think it would be record breaking or anything. But, if that did verify it would certainly be really cold air. Temps behind that front drop really fast, temps drop from the 30s to 40s in Nebraska to the single digits pretty dang fast. But, it will definitely change, the 18z run will probably not even show it.

If it brings it back in the mid-range, then it'll be more interesting.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Thats a good place for the High if we want a good combo fo Cold/moisture too. If you look at many past outbreaks and snow events for Houston, the high is placed right along the edge of the rockies in Montana. 1989 anyone .

[orangeblood]

Just for kicks, and also so I can learn a little. At hour 384 on the GFS run from today at 12Z is that showing a massive intrusion on cold air? I know that it could change the next run but just for learning purposes is that the kind of map that if we see run after run do we here in Texas need to brace for it? I like most everyone don't put any faith in long range but I am just curious.

Thanks!

Instead of looking at run after run of the GFS, I personally pay attention to the teleconnection patterns around the northern hemisphere. One in particular that usually causes cool weather around the southern plains is the PNA pattern: positive if you enjoy cool/cold weather. This pattern appears to be the main culprit in bringing down this last cold wave, although not extremely cold, it tapped into the cold air in Northwest Canada due to the last pulse into the positive range towards the end of November. Today, the PNA is neutral and looks to hover there over the next week so I'm not sure what the GFS is trying to catch onto. To answer part of your question, I normally use the GFS and several other models along with the teleconnection pattern forecasts to look for trends.

You usually need the PNA in sync with other patterns to cause extreme cold weather around here like a negative AO or NAO. So far this winter the AO is almost into record breaking positive territory and thus it appears highly unlikely we'll have extreme cold around here for the next few weeks.

Below is a link to follow the PNA forecasts and others as well:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.shtml

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Brandon8181]

Hi Orangeblood,

happy winter

Can you explain to me more information about the PNA ...I don't really understand or know much about it...

Thank you,
Brandon

[Portastorm]

Hi Orangeblood,

happy winter

Can you explain to me more information about the PNA ...I don't really understand or know much about it...

Thank you,
Brandon

Brandon,

Here is a great link to some educational material on the PNA (Pacific North American pattern). It's good reading. Enjoy.

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/edu/k12/.PNA