Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[gboudx]

I was outside earlier and its just mist. I suppose someone could mistake it for flurries because it's so light it blows easily with the wind. But its not flurries.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

any hope for more light precip tomorrow night?

[iorange55]

I was outside earlier and its just mist. I suppose someone could mistake it for flurries because it's so light it blows easily with the wind. But its not flurries.

Déjà vu

[iorange55]

Latest RR run is showing a bit more moisture forming in a few hours, a little more than previous runs it seems.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest RR run is showing a bit more moisture forming in a few hours, a little more than previous runs it seems.

over the Metroplex? is it with the energry that's near El Paso?
also, is there a chance for precip tomorrow night?

[Jarodm]

Latest RR run is showing a bit more moisture forming in a few hours, a little more than previous runs it seems.

I saw that too, look at the precip. It's gathering moisture and almost stationary

[iorange55]

over the Metroplex? is it with the energry that's near El Paso?
also, is there a chance for precip tomorrow night?

Yes, over the Metroplex. Shows it expanding right over us, but I'm not sure I believe it. So far it's done okay at forecasting tonight, but did over hype moisture a little so far.

Might be playing tricks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any chance of tapping into the moisture west of Mexico?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

over the Metroplex? is it with the energry that's near El Paso?
also, is there a chance for precip tomorrow night?

Might be playing tricks.

Do you think we will have a chance for precip tomorrow night too?

[iorange55]

Do you think we will have a chance for precip tomorrow night too?

I heard one of the local mets mentioning flurries tomorrow night. I don't think it will, but he is the pro! I am just a dude on a weather forum.

Either way, just remember there is a lot of winter to go.

Temp down to 33 at my location and the dewpoint went up from 27 to 28.

[TexasF6]

Ice pellets and flurries in NW Austin...we have a STF just issued by our EWX, but what gives??? Portastorm where are you?!!!!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

That's true, we still have a lot more winter ahead of us ! Thanks for all of your helpful input.

[Snowshoe]

That's true, we still have a lot more winter ahead of us ! Thanks for all of your helpful input.

So much more winter an were already talking about snow and seeing it!! Much more to come and looking forward to this winter and all the storms to hopefully come our way!

[gboudx]

Nice discussions from DFW tonight.

THERE IS SOME TIME THIS EVENING FOR A RELEVANT METEOROLOGY LESSON
FOR WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS. OFTEN THESE DISCUSSIONS WILL TALK ABOUT
ICE CRYSTAL ACTIVATION AND SPECIFICALLY REFERENCE THE AVAILABILITY
OF MOISTURE AT -10 C WHEN TRYING TO FORECAST PRECIP TYPE.

SIMPLY STATED...PURE LIQUID WATER DROPLETS DO NOT FREEZE UNTIL -40
DEGREES. THIS IS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT KNOW HOW TO FORM INTO A
CRYSTAL WITHOUT SOME HELP ON THE MOLECULAR LEVEL FROM OTHER
CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS...OR OTHER ICE CRYSTALS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN
TAUGHT HOW TO CRYSTALLIZE BY ONE OF THESE COMPOUNDS. THESE SPECIAL
COMPOUNDS RANGE FROM DIRT...TO SALTS...TO POLLUTION AEROSOLS AND
EVEN SOME BACTERIA...AND ARE CALLED CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI.
ESSENTIALLY THE FORMATION OF ICE CRYSTALS DEPENDS ON THE
PROBABILITY THAT SOME OF THESE COMPOUNDS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
CLOUD. THE BEST WE CAN SAY...IS THAT AROUND -8C...40 PERCENT OF
THE TIME SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS WILL BECOME CRYSTALS...AND
SATURATION AT -10C...MEANS THAT PROBABILITY INCREASES TO GREATER
THAN 70 PERCENT. THAT IS WHY WE LIKE TO USE MOISTURE AT THE -10C
AS A GOOD RULE OF THUMB FOR SUPERCOOLED LIQUID DROPS VERSUS SNOW
CRYSTALS. ONCE A WATER MOLECULE FIGURES OUT HOW TO FORM INTO A
CRYSTAL...ANY NEARBY SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS WILL QUICKLY PILE
ONTO THAT CRYSTAL CHAIN...FORMING THE LONG SIX-SIDED ICE CRYSTAL
DENDRITES WE CALL SNOWFLAKES.

[Snowshoe]

Almost like a hard mist right now in north Carrollton. With the temperature around 33 it seems like it'd be snow!

[Ntxw]

THIS IS BECAUSE THEY DO NOT KNOW HOW TO FORM INTO A CRYSTAL WITHOUT SOME HELP ON THE MOLECULAR LEVEL FROM OTHER CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS...OR OTHER ICE CRYSTALS THAT HAVE ALREADY BEEN TAUGHT HOW TO CRYSTALLIZE BY ONE OF THESE COMPOUNDS. THESE SPECIAL COMPOUNDS RANGE FROM DIRT...TO SALTS...TO POLLUTION AEROSOLS AND EVEN SOME BACTERIA...AND ARE CALLED CLOUD CONDENSATION NUCLEI.

Does that mean if all of us get our can-o-snow (hairspray)and aim it when it's barely cold enough it would help crystallize droplets for snow enhancement?! I find these discussions by the NWS very interesting. I wonder how many of them skim these forums and laugh at our crazy hyping of systems sometimes

We criticize them a lot in winter but frankly, they do a wonderful job year round in all weather (FW).

[Snowshoe]

Anyone notice the radar out in west Texas? Looks interesting to me. What's going on there?

[Portastorm]

I'm here! Heavy drizzle has been falling at the Portastorm Weather Center the last few hours, sitting at 36 degrees.

The local NWS office mentioned some light flurries/ice pellets as a possibility immediately to our north (Williamson, Burnet, Llano counties).

The shortwave coming obviously has more lift than originally thought. Maybe that will portend good things for you North Texas folk!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Its kind of tough for me to spot the ULL in NM, but i think if it dips a bit more south, keeps pulling in the moisture from Mexico, you guys could POSSIBLY get a surprise. There is alot of dry air present, but it will moisten quickly if the moisture from the Pacific is pulled in. Anyone else seeing similarities to this storm like Feb last year? The storm that was supposed to hit Houston but hit Dallas instead.... This one isnt as cold, but the placement of the ULL seems to be similar if i remember correctly.

[iorange55]

Does that mean if all of us get our can-o-snow (hairspray)and aim it when it's barely cold enough it would help crystallize droplets for snow enhancement?! I find these discussions by the NWS very interesting. I wonder how many of them skim these forums and laugh at our crazy hyping of systems sometimes

We criticize them a lot in winter but frankly, they do a wonderful job year round in all weather (FW).

They are a lot better than some of the TV mets who talk more about miscellaneous stuff than weather.