Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

GFS isn't showing as much moisture, compared to the NAM, tomorrow night into Tuesday,

No the GFS is being a scrooge, we will just have to wait and see! I'd put the odds of seeing at least some flurries around DFW at about 90%

Of course that is just MY opinion.

And, yeah it's showing some very light moisture around.

that's great, maybe we will get a surprise tomorrow night too.

[Turtle]

Wow, my local met (Shreveport) talked about the chance of possible freezing precip on Wednesday.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears that heavier and more widespread precip is developing tonight out west and to
The south than the models are showing..

[iorange55]

It appears that heavier and more widespread precip is developing tonight out west and to
The south than the models are showing..

Definitely more than the GFS.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears that heavier and more widespread precip is developing tonight out west and to
The south than the models are showing..

Definitely more than the GFS.

The RR model is still showing snow near the Metroplex and precip in the area from hours 15-18..

[Jarodm]

It appears that heavier and more widespread precip is developing tonight out west and to
The south than the models are showing..

yes but i dont think that is a bad thing for dfw at all? infact i think that means the system is slower. Thus bringing a higher chance of snow here in north texas

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It appears that heavier and more widespread precip is developing tonight out west and to
The south than the models are showing..

yes but i dont think that is a bad thing for dfw at all? infact i think that means the system is slower. Thus bringing a higher chance of snow here in north texas

I think it's a good thing too because it's all moving in our direction.

[Jarodm]

also look at that change over line it's progressed almost 100 miles in 50 mins.(out near lubbock and midland)

[Ntxw]

Short term models have been seeing some dynamic cooling from heavy bands. It is close by a hair especially along and west side of I-35, could change over quick under a heavy band and return to rain when it lightens up. Just a bit of personal interpretation of the RUC family (RR, HRRR).

[Jarodm]

so what do you think our chances of freezing precip are for collin county?

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Short term models have been seeing some dynamic cooling from heavy bands. It is close by a hair especially along and west side of I-35, could change over quick under a heavy band and return to rain when it lightens up. Just a bit of personal interpretation of the RUC family (RR, HRRR).

So what're your thoughts tonight north of the Metroplex, and what are your thoughts with additional light precip tomorrow night into Tuesday? Thank you!

[Ntxw]

so what do you think our chances of freezing precip are for collin county?

So what're your thoughts tonight north of the Metroplex, and what are your thoughts with additional light precip tomorrow night into Tuesday? Thank you!

I like the NWS forecast chances tonight, though probably more optimistic. I am hesitant to jump on board with dynamic cooling East of I-35 E. Out west in the western zones elevation is higher and the 850 warm nose is always less of a problem so it's easier for that to happen. Definitely will happen there. I'd put a 10% chance of mixed precip for western Tarrant county and Denton counties.

I am thinking for late tues/weds the low will likely cause flurries, I like the chances better then what the GFS currently has...

[Longhornmaniac8]

So is there essentially no chance of any frozen precipitation this far south, now? I looked at the NAM and Euro on Wundermap and it looked close at about hour 36 (maybe 30 miles NW of Austin).

Is it worth holding out any bit of hope?

[iorange55]

I like the NWS forecast chances tonight, though probably more optimistic. I am hesitant to jump on board with dynamic cooling East of I-35 E. Out west in the western zones elevation is higher and the 850 warm nose is always less of a problem so it's easier for that to happen. Definitely will happen there. I'd put a 10% chance of mixed precip for western Tarrant county and Denton counties.

I am thinking for late tues/weds the low will likely cause flurries, I like the chances better then what the GFS currently has...

I agree with the late Tuesday event. I think there is a good chance of some flurries filling the sky late Tuesday night.

[Jarodm]

you know i would agree with you, but the elevation is almost a none issue. when we are talking a 200 feet or less. The nam is certainly showing frozen precip in the dfw metro. Looking at current radar the change over line is quickly moving east, as this system has certainly been under forecast up until tonight. Who know's but we can be hopeful

[Ntxw]

you know i would agree with you, but the elevation is almost a none issue. when we are talking a 200 feet or less. The nam is certainly showing frozen precip in the dfw metro. Looking at current radar the change over line is quickly moving east, as this system has certainly been under forecast up until tonight. Who know's but we can be hopeful

This is what the NAM has. The elevation thing was more towards the western counties vs the eastern counties. Within the metro you're right a few hundred feet won't make too much of a difference.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Edit: Short term models are still hinting well.

[iorange55]

I recently moved to Cedar Hill. Maybe my 200-300ft advantage will squeeze out some flakes...

Anyway, here's to hoping the trend continues!

[Ntxw]

Euro tonight certainly is being more aggressive. Has a larger shield of snow than 12z.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Euro tonight certainly is being more aggressive. Has a larger shield of snow than 12z.

For tonight or for Tuesday into Wednesday?

[Jarodm]

look at current radar, we are going to see snow. in the dfw metro

also this lull in precip is going to allow for drying in the atmosphere thus aiding in wet bulb effect. Watch your dew points closely. Im thinking nws will change forecast come 4 or 5am.

The above post and any post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.