Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

For you would-be Charlie Browns on this forum ... we still have a LONG ways to go on this event. You can get your kicking cleats on, but I would be teeing up that football just quite yet or THIS (below) might happen to you!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/8866/charliebrownlucyfootbal.jpg

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Charlie Brown would make a good Aggie!

[Ntxw]

GFS continues to give ground to the other globals. It's still pretty fast with the initial energy but definitely looking better, and wetter! (And colder)

[iorange55]

GFS continues to give ground to the other globals. It's still pretty fast with the initial energy but definitely looking better, and wetter! (And colder)

It improves with each run! (if you love winter weather.)

If the trend continues, it looks like we'll be in for a early winter season surprise.

[DonWrk]

The 12z NAM hits central Oklahoma with a lot of snow. The GFS doesn't bring as much but spreads it a little farther near the metroplex 84 hours out.

[Ntxw]

The 12z NAM hits central Oklahoma with a lot of snow. The GFS doesn't bring as much but spreads it a little farther near the metroplex 84 hours out.

They are still trending. 24 hours ago pretty much had nothing

GFS is sticking to it's bias this season of dominating with the northern stream energy so its holding back with the southern wave still. This I think will be incorrect based on track record. A coastal low will probably form on the Texas coast, a large shield of moisture will probably be flung north from the coastal bend and that's where things could get interesting imo.

Longer range PNA is going back to positive week before Xmas. It could be a key driver for the holidays



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[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Ntxw, remind us novices again as to what a positive PNA means?

Frankly, with this storm, I'm more hopeful of seeing some beneficial rains than I am about seeing an early winter storm. Not that I won't be out on the hills with my boys and our sleds, but seeing how I'm under a Stage 3 water restriction, anything that lays down some serious water for Lake Lavon is all right by me.

[Jarodm]

yea im 80 percent positive on a winter weather event late sunday into monday possibly early tuesday for north texas and about 50 percent positive it will be a significant storm

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, remind us novices again as to what a positive PNA means?

West coast ridging and central conus troughs/cold/stormy in our neck of the woods = +PNA pattern

[cheezyWXguy]

For you would-be Charlie Browns on this forum ... we still have a LONG ways to go on this event. You can get your kicking cleats on, but I would be teeing up that football just quite yet or THIS (below) might happen to you!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/8866/charliebrownlucyfootbal.jpg

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Charlie Brown would make a good Aggie!

Lol, actually Bullock is a good kicker. Don't even get me started on the some of the others though...
But thats for the off-topic forum

[Portastorm]

yea im 80 percent positive on a winter weather event late sunday into monday possibly early tuesday for north texas and about 50 percent positive it will be a significant storm

A friendly reminder if folks are going to do a forecast ... and this appears to be a forecast, you need to include this disclaimer.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also, we have a lot of folks on this forum who have varying levels of meteorological knowledge. It would be helpful if you were to define what you mean by "winter weather event" and "significant storm." Thanks much!

[ravyrn]

NWS Ft Worth is coming on board.

[gboudx]

DFW also has a weather briefing.

[gpsnowman]

Man it sure got quiet quick in here after all the activity the last several hours. It is nice to see the amount of users and guests slowly increasing with each passing day. Anyone have new info on winter news?

[Portastorm]

Man it sure got quiet quick in here after all the activity the last several hours. It is nice to see the amount of users and guests slowly increasing with each passing day. Anyone have new info on winter news?

Nobody opined about the 12z Euro ... which to me looked fairly similar to the 0z run. Any other comments?

The afternoon forecast discussions out of Texas NWS offices should start coming out shortly and that will be interesting to see what they're thinking so far. The four main things to watch are:

1) Speed of cold air and the location of the boundary (cold air/warm air) later this weekend

2) Does the entire upper low eject out this weekend or just pieces of it as it gets sheared out. Any energy left behind could spell trouble for wintry weather by Monday.

3) What is the eventual track of that upper low? Those underneath that column of cold air could get some winter "fun."

4) Upper lows which move west to east across the state usually initiate a coastal surface low or a trough. Where does that set up and if it does, will it sling some moisture over the cold air and create some wintry "fun" for someone in Texas?

[bktkckak]

000
FXUS64 KSHV 022057
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG A LINE FROM CORSICANA TO GREENVILLE TO
PARIS TEXAS...PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS EAST
OF THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF TYLER TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS CONTINUES TO STREAM PACIFIC MOISTURE THROUGH MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.

SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO DEEPEN AND STREAM
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEARLY
STATIONARY COLD FRONT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING
OVER AN INCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...MITIGATING
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. HOWEVER...BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY FALL INTO THE 40S
WITH AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN PRODUCING A COLD RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30
CORRIDOR...LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS MAY TRANSITION INTO SLEET.
HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD QUICKLY END BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. /05/

[Portastorm]

Relevant piece from the afternoon AFD (area forecast discussion) from NWSFO Midland/Odessa:

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DECIDEDLY COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
AND STAY COLD THROUGH MIDWEEK...DUE TO AN ACTIVE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...TO THE EAST OF A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY AND SEND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION MONDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UA RIDGE
AND A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SEND A
STEADY STREAM OF COLD AIR SOUTH THROUGH THE HEART OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IF NOT BEYOND. SOME OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL
SPLIT FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM...DROP THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
FORM ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SUNDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM HEADS EAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA AGAIN.

HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS CUTOFF LOW. THIS IS ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW AND WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT THINK LOW ORDER CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SAID SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE TRACK AND TIMING MAY CHANGE...SO THESE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED ON FUTURE SHIFTS. FOR NOW...THINK MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE IMPINGING UPON BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT WITH A MIX OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10 AND 20 LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20 BOTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LATER SHIFTS COULD END UP ISSUING
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THESE AREAS...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH NOW. AS MORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE
REGION...SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MAY NOT
RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD ALSO
BE MORE LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE UA TROUGH
FINALLY SHEARS EAST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MORE COLD AIR COULD INVADE THE REGION
BY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AGAIN.

[iorange55]

Trends are still in the right direction. The GFS 18Z will be coming out real soon, but what I am really waiting for are the 0z runs tonight.

If they continue the trend, then I think I would feel comfortable saying that North Texas will see some sort of frozen precip.

[Portastorm]

No mention of frozen stuff this far south (Corpus Christi), but the NWS office down there does have something interesting to say about the 12z model guidance:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS LINGERING TO THE WEST A BIT STRONGER. THIS SHOULD
HINDER MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR-MASS FROM REACHING SOUTH TEXAS UNTIL SOME
TIME SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THE COLD DENSE AIR-MASS
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

[Ntxw]

Man it is chilly and damp out there!

Portastorm pretty much said it all. Models have continued to trend with a wetter scenario behind the front, significant improvement even from the 0z guidance last night. It will be hard to pinpoint who gets what and how much right now until the true arctic air is moving and the final shortwave forms/ejects (I think the models will have a pretty clear picture by weekend's end). Anyone from I-40 to I-20 is fair game and a wintry mix is not out of the realms down to I-10 imo.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CST FRI DEC 2 2011

...A WET WEEKEND AHEAD...WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR
NORTH TEXAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXIST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE EARLY CHALLENGES ARE TIMING OF DISTURBANCES EXITING
VIGOROUS UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND BAJA MEXICO
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES. AS EXPECTED...BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
IS SHIFTING ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WITH THE FRONT CONTINUING TO
SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND DFW METRO. AREAS OF
FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE FRONT AS IT RETROGRADES
SLOWLY THROUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALREADY BEING SEEN ON REGIONAL RADARS AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
EJECTING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS. AS THE FRONT
SHIFTS WEST...TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL WARM SLOWLY OR REMAIN
STEADY AS CLOUDS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT KEEP CLOUDS/PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND SOME FOG AROUND...BUT FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS THICK AS IT WILL BE
IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE WEST.

BEST LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT NEARBY AND BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A SECOND...STRONGER COLD FRONT HEADING SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTH
TEXAS. HAVE INSERTED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH AS THE STRONG COLD
FRONT SURGES THROUGH THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF FORCING FROM
BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL
RESULT IN LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST
CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS ON SUNDAY
WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS. A CHILLY AND RAW DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

THE COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES OFF
THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUING COLD
AND BRISK CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES REGARDING ANY TRANSITION TO WINTRY PRECIP. THE INITIAL THREAT
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON THE TIMING AND SOUTHEAST
EXTENT OF THE COLD AIRMASS. ANALYSIS OF THE COLUMN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE NAM BEING MORE SHALLOW...WHILE THE
GFS/CANADIAN ARE MORE ROBUST OF BRINGING IN THE DEEPER COLD AIR
AND TRANSITION IN MORE QUICKLY. WITH CONFIDENCE WAVERING THIS FAR
OUT...HAVE TAKEN A BLEND AND GONE WITH A VARYING MIXTURE OF
RAIN...FREEZING RAIN... AND SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS LATE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SNOW/SLEET MIX
FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF INCLUDING THE DFW METRO. FOR THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WACO TO PARIS LINE...HAVE
DELAYED INSERTING CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE UPPER ENERGY
LIFTING ACROSS.

FORECASTS WILL BE FINE TUNED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS
HOPEFULLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR AND
TIMING ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. NO WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK
ISSUED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK OR ADVISORIES
COULD BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF AGREEMENT IS ACHIEVED AND
CHANCES INCREASE TO A HIGHER CATEGORY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY OPEN AND LIFT AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING A DEEP DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED LATE WEEK...BUT HAVE
SLOWED DOWN TRENDS AND HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES CONSIDERING
THE SHEAR DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR DOME NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS.