Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[iorange55]

Just logged on before bed to see if people were seeing the Euro coming out, and you all are all over it!

I did not see this coming, at all. I thought we might get something in the next week or two, but not this soon or (potentially) this much.

[Ntxw]

Just logged on before bed to see if people were seeing the Euro coming out, and you all are all over it!

I did not see this coming, at all. I thought we might get something in the next week or two, but not this soon or (potentially) this much.

For fun, the heaviest precip will ride up I-35 according to the euro. Lets say the models are off by 2-3 degrees. It could be the difference between 6 inches of snow or a heavy rain/sleet/ice mess. Where is Portastorm and that football?!

[orangeblood]

So far through 87 hours, Euro is developing snow all over west Texas moving into north Texas/Oklahoma, and more than just a light wintry mix. Good slug of moisture forming a deformation band from the SW. What a turn of events tonight...it will be very close.

Tonight was the night when the models should've started to converge on a somewhat similar solution and right on cue here they are. I would suspect the Fort Worth NWS will start changing their tune and precip chances for early next week after tonight's model runs.

[TwisterFanatic]

Getting interesting over the Southern Plains!

[Jarodm]

so we have over three models on board. Ok i need to be able to build a snow man in my front yard by tuesday in north Texas, who's with me?

[Longhornmaniac8]

Screw you guys in North Texas, you've had your fun for the last couple of years! Bring it down here!!!!

[Jarodm]

yea you know, i really have had a problem with climate change being that i understand climate phases. However if this verifys i would start to argue something is strange. Based off of one event may be premature, but come on we had record breaking heat alittle over three months ago? Im not sure what to belive but jeez..

[Jarodm]

just out of nws FTW

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CST FRI DEC 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK FRONT CURRENTLY
SITUATED NEAR A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO DALLAS TO GOLDTHWAITE WILL
RETREAT WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE DAY...AND PRECIP SHOULD SLIDE
WEST WITH THE FRONT AS WELL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH TEXAS AREA. CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGEST THAT ANY WINTER WEATHER ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE NORTH TEXAS REGION.

I HAVE INTRODUCED WINTER WEATHER INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR MONDAY. A
VERY COLD AIRMASS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS IN THE PLAINS
THIS MORNING...WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND NEXT WEEK LOOKS COOLER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...A NEW SURGE OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM CANADA AND SWING AROUND
THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE LOCATED IN ARIZONA. THIS ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE LIFT FOR MOIST AIR TO OVERRUN THIS COLD AIR MASS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT REACH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES...WHERE
SNOW PRODUCTION IS MOST EFFICIENT...AND HAVE THUS OPTED FOR A
WINTRY MIX IN THE COLDER AREAS.

THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT AND HIGHER QPF IS PROGGED FOR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...BUT BY
MONDAY EVENING IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIP WEST OF A
LINE FROM BONHAM TO DALLAS TO LAMPASAS. THE AREAS OF WINTER
PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN SUCCEEDING
FORECASTS...BUT GIVEN THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURE PROFILES I HAVE
INDICATED AN INITIAL MIX OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO A FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIX AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN MONDAY EVENING...WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. AS
THE ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST PRECIP SHOULD END BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...LEAVING COOL DRY WEATHER THROUGH DAY SEVEN. 84

[somethingfunny]

They bit.

Dallas:

Monday: A chance of rain before noon, then a chance of freezing rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday Night: A slight chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Kelarie]

Shreveport backed off:

MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
UPPER TROF ONCE IT BEGINS TO MAKE ITS EWD PUSH ACROSS TX BY
MIDWEEK. THE FASTER GFS CLEARS THE PRECIP OUT BY LATE TUE NIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING...AS THE DISTURBANCE QUICKLY MARCHES E. THE
EURO HAS CONTINUED TO LAG BEHIND...NOT CLEARING N LA OF PRECIP
UNTIL EARLY THU. THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE
RESOLUTION OF THE TIMING OF A NRN STREAM TROF SIMULTANEOUSLY
EJECTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HAVE TRENDED THE EXTENDED
CONSERVATIVELY MORE TOWARDS THE SLOWER EURO...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

TEMP FCST DEFINITELY TRICKY WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY. SHOULD
RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST SPOTS TODAY AND SAT...AS REGION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON WARM SIDE OF FRONT. STAYED NEAR GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED. /12/

[Rgv20]

Here is the Brownsville late night discussion....We are looking for a raw,cold,drizzly Monday-Monday Night. Classic winter day in the RGV

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE VALLEY AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC OVER
RUNNING EVENT. NORTH SURFACE WINDS PROVIDING GOOD SHALLOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 500 MB...ABUNDANT
MOISTURE/AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.30 INCHES/ AND LIFT WILL
RESULT IN A COLD BREEZY CLOUDY DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S. HAVE
MAINTAINED FORECAST CONSISTENCY BY UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON
TEMPERATURES. MOS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S ON MONDAY WHICH STILL APPEARS WAY TOO WARM FOR THIS KIND
OF WEATHER PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BUT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES AS
THE OVER RUNNING SITUATION CONTINUES. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE
COLDER UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH MID 30S POSSIBLE IN
THE UPPER VALLEY TO LOW TO MID 40S NEAR THE COAST. DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOUT AN
INCH DECREASING TO 0.50 INCH BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY WILL BE AROUND 50 WHICH IS CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. A
FEW LESS CLOUDS AND SOME BREAKS COULD ALLOW THE UPPER VALLEY TO
REACH THE MID 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

[Ntxw]

I hate pointing out long range NAM but it too is following the trends. A major southern plains winter storm with the arctic front/southern wave is being depicted by it.

[HockeyTx82]

And to think just 4 months ago we were having one of the worst summers on record!

I see wxman57 is online, I sure hope he gives us his expert opinion on the upcoming storm.

[orangeblood]

I hate pointing out long range NAM but it too is following the trends. A major southern plains winter storm with the arctic front/southern wave is being depicted by it.

The trend is there but it appears that it's too slow with the front and thus has the wave moving too far to the north...I would suspect it will move the core of the precip shield farther southeast as we get closer! You see the NAM do that time and time again.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

And to think just 4 months ago we were having one of the worst summers on record!

I see wxman57 is online, I sure hope he gives us his expert opinion on the upcoming storm.

I think you may have a good chance of seeing some snow in the greater Dallas area Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday morning. I'm leaning toward the slower (than GFS) Canadian model as to the timing of the upper trof passage. Could be a widespread freezing rain/sleet and snow event for Texas Monday PM into Tuesday morning. Sleet might reach all the way south to the Houston area, though I don't think we would see more than a few sleet pellets mixed in with rain as the rain ends Tuesday morning. Farther north, it's a different story. Plenty of cold air aloft over Dallas by Monday afternoon.

[HockeyTx82]

And to think just 4 months ago we were having one of the worst summers on record!

I see wxman57 is online, I sure hope he gives us his expert opinion on the upcoming storm.

I think you may have a good chance of seeing some snow in the greater Dallas area Monday afternoon/evening into Tuesday morning. I'm leaning toward the slower (than GFS) Canadian model as to the timing of the upper trof passage. Could be a widespread freezing rain/sleet and snow event for Texas Monday PM into Tuesday morning. Sleet might reach all the way south to the Houston area, though I don't think we would see more than a few sleet pellets mixed in with rain as the rain ends Tuesday morning. Farther north, it's a different story. Plenty of cold air aloft over Dallas by Monday afternoon.

Sounds like fun times ahead! Thank you as always wxman57!!!!!!

[Portastorm]

For you would-be Charlie Browns on this forum ... we still have a LONG ways to go on this event. You can get your kicking cleats on, but I would be teeing up that football just quite yet or THIS (below) might happen to you!



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[ndale]

Austin NWS has small confidence for wintry precipitaion for our area but mentions the possibility:

THE CONUNDRUM FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS THIS. WILL THERE
BE ANY WINTERY PCPN ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
INCLUDING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES? THE ANSWER IS MAYBE...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE IS VERY LOW. THE GFS BRINGS THE
540DAM THICKNESS LINE INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL COUNTRY
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP
THIS THICKNESS LINE NORTH OF OUR CWFA. ONCE AGAIN IT COMES DOWN TO
TIMING. THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY EXIT OUR AREA BEFORE IT BECOMES
COLD ENOUGH FOR WINTERY PCPN. HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY ACROSS BURNET AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT SO
HAVE ADDED LIGHT SLEET TO THE FCST FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES. OTHERWISE
LIQUID PCPN IS EXPECTED.

[natlib]

The entire state of New Mexico is under some type of winter weather warning. Nice to see winter is here!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

And to think just 4 months ago we were having one of the worst summers on record!

Ironic isn't it? I am kind of glass half full, half empty about this winter and some of the banter about it being a La Nina winter where we have solid cold shots from time to time with average to above average temps in between. I love cold for the obvious reasons because of the enternal oven and humidity we live in about 9 months out of the year. But unless we have moisture and the deep soil type, the dry cold is just going to make what vegetation that is out there even more ripe for fires come March or April when our windy season kicks in. It's going to be a mess.