Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[TexasStorm]

What the models do not tend to take into account this time of year is the lack of snow pack. The air coming down is going to modify before reaching us. I would not expect any type of winter precip this Sunday/Monday. Just much needed cold rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

What the models do not tend to take into account this time of year is the lack of snow pack. The air coming down is going to modify before reaching us. I would not expect any type of winter precip this Sunday/Monday. Just much needed cold rain.

This is very true, and as the moisture moves northward over the next 48 hrs our temps will increase. Should see highs in the low 60's friday and in the upper 50's to low 60's Saturday. The Panhandle of TX and OK will get some snow mixed with sleet and ice Friday into Saturday morning.

[Ntxw]

Wintry precip or not the Euro and Canadian (I suspect the GFS is doing it's usual bias of lifting it too early) camps are painting a prolonged cold period with several shots in the foreseeable future. The ridge off Florida will try to bounce it as much as it can but I think the cold will prevail in Texas.

[iorange55]

Wintry precip or not the Euro and Canadian camps are painting a prolonged cold period with several shots in the foreseeable future. The ridge off Florida will try to bounce it as much as it can but I think the cold will prevail in Texas.

I was just about post about the 12z Euro run. It sure is looking nice.

Here is the cold pouring down at 120 hrs.



And then again at 216hrs

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Wintry precip or not the Euro and Canadian (I suspect the GFS is doing it's usual bias of lifting it too early) camps are painting a prolonged cold period with several shots in the foreseeable future. The ridge off Florida will try to bounce it as much as it can but I think the cold will prevail in Texas.

Be careful what you wish for Texas!

[Ntxw]

Be careful what you wish for Texas!

Stay warm up there! The polar bears are coming to your town soon! Keep those fans a blowin we need the extra push

[Portastorm]

I see that Lubbock NWS has hoisted Freezing Rain advisories for their forecast area starting tonight and into tomorrow. Gonna be a messy morning on the Tech campus I suspect.

[weatherguy425]

Yep Portastorm, so far no cancellations or delays though.

[natlib]

That freezing rain advisory has been extended now to south of Lubbock. As usual, the track of the low is really messing with the forecast.

[Portastorm]

Yep Portastorm, so far no cancellations or delays though.

The Goin' Band from Raiderland will need to be practicing indoors I bet! Be careful out there.

[weatherguy425]

Haha, Will do! Back in October when we had our first bout of winter weather, the band was still practicing outdoors in 36 degree weather with a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet falling. They're a tough bunch.

[Ntxw]

I checked the wunderground euro map (awesome btw), it's showing some possible wintry mix mischief come Monday along I-20 (especially from Midland to Abilene) to I-35 northeast into Arkansas.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[orangeblood]

Haha, Will do! Back in October when we had our first bout of winter weather, the band was still practicing outdoors in 36 degree weather with a mixture of rain, snow, and sleet falling. They're a tough bunch.

Probably tougher than that Raider defense!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I checked the wunderground euro map (awesome btw), it's showing some possible wintry mix mischief come Monday along I-20 (especially from Midland to Abilene) to I-35 northeast into Arkansas.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Okay, that is REALLY cool.

[somethingfunny]

I have been watching this system all week in hopes of chasing it. While it's not the biggest winter storm to hit Texas and probably won't be the biggest of this winter, it might be the only one to hit over a weekend, when I can actually leave town to chase something. Even if Oklahoma or the Panhandle has a 3 foot, 60mph blizzard in January, I won't be able to chase it if it happens on a Tuesday... My tentative plan was to leave DFW directly from work after 9pm Friday, get to Amarillo by 3 or 4 in the morning, sleep in a motel, and then spend Saturday enjoying the snow in town or driving around the Panhandle chasing snow bands before coming home Sunday. I'm suffering from severe snow withdrawls.

That all being said, I said I'd determine my final plan on Thursday, and..... I don't think I'm going to be chasing this one. Everything is too borderline, I don't want to drive all the way out there just to find an inch or two of snow or a freezing rain glaze. I'm not set in stone, but definitely leaning towards this system primarily being a bust as far as snow accumulations go.

If anybody could convince me otherwise, that would be grand.

[natlib]

Special Statement just issued by San Angelo NWS for West Central Texas....looks like we might have some fun Sunday night!

Much colder air expected to move into the region tonight with
wintry precipitation possible by Sunday night...

A strong cold front was moving south into west central Texas
Thursday afternoon. This cold front will move south to a line
extending roughly from Ozona to Brady by early Friday morning.
Temperatures will remain in the 40s along and north of a line from
Barnhart to Cross Plains during the day Friday. Along and north of
this cold front tonight... we will have a chance for showers and
drizzle. The precipitation chances will continue throughout the
day on Friday. In addition... as moisture is pulled northward over
the top of this very shallow and cold air mass... areas of fog will
likely develop and affect mainly southern areas later tonight and
into Friday night.

Temperatures will warm back up Saturday as the warm front moves
north of the area. However... an Arctic cold front will then move
south through the area Saturday night bringing the coldest
temperatures of the season into the area for Sunday and Monday. On
Sunday night... with temperatures falling to below freezing... and a
slight chance for precipitation... we have the potential for snow
and/or a rain/snow mix for areas mainly north of a line from Ozona
to Brady. Temperatures on Monday will struggle to warm up out of
the 30s with north winds of 15 to 25 mph.

[iorange55]

Wow NTXW that really is a cool map.

Abilene would definitely get some wintry fun if that model run played out. North Central Texas would kind of be on the edge.

GFS 18z

Major Cold up there

126hrs

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Be careful what you wish for Texas!

Stay warm up there! The polar bears are coming to your town soon! Keep those fans a blowin we need the extra push

Oh when it arrives I'll definitely be happy to pass it along!

I will never be a true weather person as I don't think of the -10's to -20's being an Arctic air mass....instead I think of it as the Arctic blowing an unwelcome kiss. However when we hit the -30's/-40's/-50's then I know I'll find the polar bears living right outside my front door (or at least varying degrees of their deadly bite).

I still think you folks are NUTS wanting enough cold for it to snow down there. Now I do know you will never hit the lows my location will but you could break your previous cold records (repeated cold fronts do chip away at the warmth down there do they not???) and from what I've seen here most of you folks don't have any antifreeze at all in your systems (Grey Goose doesn't count ).

[iorange55]

The 18z run of the GFS is showing a very cold air mass coming down. I think it's a safe bet to say the next week or sp will be on the 'cool' side.

[somethingfunny]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM ONE HALF INCH TO 8 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOL....that is some epic uncertainty!