Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Rgv20]

King euro is clueless! GFS is on it.

You wish!

The Grey Goose-swilling meteorologists in the Portastorm Weather Center say the GFS operational runs have shown more consistency in the last 3-4 days than the op Euro. But they've not looked at the ensemble runs though. Maybe our friend in the Valley, Rgv20, will chime in as he's good at looking at the ensembles.

I do hope the GFS is right.

Took a quick look at the GFS Ensembles and most of them agree with the operational GFS but as most of you guys has said the ECMWF does not bring much cold air to Texas. Granted the Euro still shows cool temperatures but not as cold as the GFS. As far as snow chances for Texas next weekend until early next weekend the panhandle may get a decent chance.


Next weekends forecast is still very much up in the air as Split Flow Patterns (its forecast to set up late next week until the weekend) are known to send computer models on a wild goose chase!! So be advise dont look for any type of model consistency in the next few days...

[vbhoutex]

The Grey Goose-swilling meteorologists in the Portastorm Weather Center say the GFS operational runs have shown more consistency in the last 3-4 days than the op Euro. But they've not looked at the ensemble runs though. Maybe our friend in the Valley, Rgv20, will chime in as he's good at looking at the ensembles.

There is some folks standing outside the PWC today. The were holding signs up...

OCCUPY PWC....now what does that mean. They also had signs stating...

KING EURO IS OUR SAVIOR AND DOWN WITH THE BCS...Or was it GFS....LOL

Ah, the winter debates begin. The pattern change is definitely here and ramping down, as we see each Winter. As usual the question is how low and how fast with how much moisture. With La Nina in control I think we are in for a roller coaster ride this Winter in TX, especially in the S, SE, and SC areas.

[iorange55]

GFS 12Z showing a cold rain for North-Central Texas. No snow

Still a ways out, though.

[Rgv20]

The 12zGFS Ensembles are showing a pretty good cool spell for Texas for next Monday thru Wednesday. They are showing some impressive negative temperature departures for next week (Dec 5-7) Ensemble Means are anywhere from 9 to 15F below normal..Stay Tuned!!


Ensemble departure Means for Monday Dec 5.



Ensemble departure Means for Tuesday Dec 6.



Ensemble departure Means for Wednesday Dec 7.

[Rgv20]

It's going to be a cold night in the RGV! I'm not looking forward to waking up early tomorrow morning!

[gpsnowman]

The 12zGFS Ensembles are showing a pretty good cool spell for Texas for next Monday thru Wednesday. They are showing some impressive negative temperature departures for next week (Dec 5-7) Ensemble Means are anywhere from 9 to 15F below normal..Stay Tuned!
Ensemble departure Means for Monday Dec 5.



Ensemble departure Means for Tuesday Dec 6.



Ensemble departure Means for Wednesday Dec 7.

[gpsnowman]

Oops. I think I just messed up. Sorry. Frank Strait seems to believe some wintry fun is possible early next week according to his Sunday video. Still a week out so let's keep our fingers crossed. A nice cool week is in store for the North Texas area with a cold rain this weekend.

[orangeblood]

The models are trending towards what appears to be a major winter storm affecting the south central plains early next week....with the phasing of the northern and southern branches to form a major full latitude trough over the southern plains. This one needs to be watched closely but, with most every winter storm around this area, will be all about the timing/phasing of the two systems and when/where that occurs.

[iorange55]

Yeah, GFS 12Z coming out now. Certainly looks like someone will get some fun, and someone will get some miserable cold rain.

[gboudx]

Cold rain would still help the drought situation. I'd take 8" of a cold rain if it filled up some of the lakes.

[HockeyTx82]

It was a great walk in to work this morning. Temps in the low 20's with little to no wind here in Denton. I think we were one of the colder spots around. Very brisk and refreshing. Needless to say I am looking forward to next week. Here's to hoping everything comes together and a little further south.

[Portastorm]

The models are trending towards what appears to be a major winter storm affecting the south central plains early next week....with the phasing of the northern and southern branches to form a major full latitude trough over the southern plains. This one needs to be watched closely but, with most every winter storm around this area, will be all about the timing/phasing of the two systems and when/where that occurs.

The GFS is showing that but King Euro appears less enthusiastic about a full latitude trough and hangs back energy in the Southwest (sometimes considered this model's bias). Both, however, suggest an entertaining winter weather event for the Panhandle and portions of West Texas.

Agreed about the "needs to be watched closely" part.

[missytingarland]

Helloooo!!!! I'm pretty much a lurker because I know pretty much nada about reading all the models and everything, BUT, I come here to see what all you experts are saying. Just wanted to say hi, once again, this winter.

[Ntxw]

The predicted shot of cold air is coming from NW Canada with the pattern setting up. Wxman always says take a look at the cold air source. Lets take a look sha'll we?



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Not insanely cold, but very cold for this time of year. Also this could be one of those situations where the shallow air hugs the spine of the rockies and spills south while modifying on it's way east imo. We don't have great snow cover in the plains yet so lets wait see what happens.



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Edit: GFS has been suggesting a sharp ridge off the west coast all the way up into the Arctic, perhaps the model is under doing the driving of cold air south if it were to verify. Remember when the Euro was suggesting it last week? Cough Cough...

[Rgv20]

First freeze at my backyard!! Got down to 30F!

[orangeblood]

Regarding the cold air coming this weekend, the high pressure seems to originate over southwest Canada later this week and then hug the eastern slope of the Rockies on its way down into Texas....it doesn't appear this one will be cold enough for frozen precip down into the metroplex or further south. But the second shot coming early next week, originating in Northwest Canada, looks to much colder. If the system hangs back in New Mexico long enough, this second shot could have time to make things very interesting for folks further south across North Central into Central Texas but appears to be a long shot at this time.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

In the words of Lee Corso: Not so fast my friend!

Euro says nah ah, no good mjo means no cold for you texas!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

As a refresher from last winner, weren't there certain models that were relatively solid in the 7-day range, but had a propensity to "lose" storms in the 4-5 day range, before bringing them back at 3 days?

[gboudx]

As a refresher from last winner, weren't there certain models that were relatively solid in the 7-day range, but had a propensity to "lose" storms in the 4-5 day range, before bringing them back at 3 days?

Yes. I believe that was the GFS.

[Portastorm]

As a refresher from last winner, weren't there certain models that were relatively solid in the 7-day range, but had a propensity to "lose" storms in the 4-5 day range, before bringing them back at 3 days?

Yes. I believe that was the GFS.

That's true. However, one of the things we're seeing this winter already is that both the GFS and Euro are struggling with consistency beyond the 3-5 day period. Those that get paid to forecast weather have been saying as much as of late.