Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[weatherguy425]

Well none of the NWS afternoon discussions have mentioned it... Would be really nice though. I'll be one my way back to Lubbock Sunday! Is there any way to tell how much snow it would put down in Northwest Texas if that run verified?

[iorange55]

This winter is starting to trick us early! Don't go to kick the football just yet, you might end up looking like a fool.

[aggiecutter]

According to JB, business will pick up in January, +PNA:

https://twitter.com/?photo_id=1#!/BigJo ... 96/photo/1

[Turtle]

Starting today, our lowest record highs are all under 40 except for 1 day in December until late February. It sounds crazy considering our coldest high this fall was in the mid 50s. The 00z GFS is showing rain, but still no freeze yet.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hello, all. Long time lurker and occasional poster. Is there a good primer book that one can read to learn the basic lingo and meaning related to forecasting, and also how to read the forecast models? I have a lifelong fascination with weather and wish I would have studied meteorology in college, but I figured my way in this world was to become an evil wall street banker.

[gpsnowman]

Hello, all. Long time lurker and occasional poster. Is there a good primer book that one can read to learn the basic lingo and meaning related to forecasting, and also how to read the forecast models? I have a lifelong fascination with weather and wish I would have studied meteorology in college, but I figured my way in this world was to become an evil wall street banker.

Welcome to the board! You are in luck. The weather does not discriminate against bankers. Love of weather in transcendent. Numerous smart minds you can and will learn from exist here. (I'm not one ) So enjoy the next few months and hopefully there will be some winter fun to discuss in the near future. It is fun and aggravating at the same time. Like golf. Enjoy.

[iorange55]

GFS 06z came in a bit colder. It is starting to look like a big cool down is a good bet in the next 6-10 days. Snow is probably a long shot, but you never know.

[Ntxw]

Hello, all. Long time lurker and occasional poster. Is there a good primer book that one can read to learn the basic lingo and meaning related to forecasting, and also how to read the forecast models? I have a lifelong fascination with weather and wish I would have studied meteorology in college, but I figured my way in this world was to become an evil wall street banker.

Welcome! You'll learn many things following this board (a winter's worth of posts should do it!@). Many posters here along with the pro mets are the best! Just ask and someone will probably give you an answer sure worked for me!

Looks like the first widespread freeze is coming for Texas within a week!

[iorange55]

GFS 12z really has us in a cold period after Thanksgiving.

Showing the first widespread freeze, and then some real cold rain later on in the forecast.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville NWS Afternoon Discussion. The coldest reading so far for my area has been 37F and I would not be surprise if the thermometer went below that come Monday morning.

MORE CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. AFTER A GOOFY ECMWF SOLUTION EARLIER THIS MORNING...WHICH
TOOK DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND CUT IT
OFF OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING WINDY...VERY DRY...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. GFS/ECMWF EACH SHOW 45+
NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW JUST OFF THE DECK FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD BRING 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTY
FULLY MIXED WINDS TO ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS/RGV SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS
MAY MAKE FOR SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULT ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
TEXAS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE CLOSE TO THE
MILD GFS SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO REACH 70 DESPITE
FULL SUNSHINE...A TRUE SIGN THAT DECEMBER IS NEAR.

THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR WILL FOLLOW MONDAY MORNING...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PREFERRED POCKETS SUCH AS
ZAPATA/MEDINA AIRPORT EDGE TOWARD THE FREEZING POINT. A BEAUTIFUL
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES...STILL A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE...WILL BEGIN THE FIRST WORK WEEK AFTER THE HOLIDAY.

[Ntxw]

Well the PNA is going positive which validifies the model's colder runs of late. It will also mean repeated chances of rain for many drought areas. Nice way to bring in December. If we can get a little help from the AO which is expected to go less positive, maybe we can sustain the cold vs brief shots.

[Portastorm]

Hello, all. Long time lurker and occasional poster. Is there a good primer book that one can read to learn the basic lingo and meaning related to forecasting, and also how to read the forecast models? I have a lifelong fascination with weather and wish I would have studied meteorology in college, but I figured my way in this world was to become an evil wall street banker.

Welcome to Storm2K!

A couple of good general weather books I would recommend are "The AMS Weather Book" and "The Weather Book: An Easy-to-Understand Guide."

If you want to go crazy here and do some actual online coursework which starts are a beginner level, check this out:

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php

Here is a good online site about how to read weather models:

http://weather.unisys.com/model/details.php

[Tireman4]

Welcome to Storm2K!

A couple of good general weather books I would recommend are "The AMS Weather Book" and "The Weather Book: An Easy-to-Understand Guide."

If you want to go crazy here and do some actual online coursework which starts are a beginner level, check this out:

https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_detail.php

Here is a good online site about how to read weather models:

http://weather.unisys.com/model/details.php[/quote]



And if you are really really adventurous, online degree program...


http://geosciences.msstate.edu/bmp.htm

[Ntxw]

Well, the models have been trending on a great lakes upper low which makes more sense this time of year with the southern energy moving deep into Mexico. Probably means a bit less rain and a tad less colder than before, but I think a widespread freeze for Texas outside of deep south Texas still stands this weekend.

[Portastorm]

Wow ... anyone see that 12z Euro at Day 10?



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[Kelarie]

Wow ... anyone see that 12z Euro at Day 10?



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Those are some wild colours, have you been marking up maps again?

That looks just a little interesting and if it verifies....would make things interesting for a bit

[Ntxw]

^ I think it's too crazy! Pumping an EPO ridge way into the arctic like that usually spells historic cold blasts down the plains, probably won't happen. I'd take half of it! Meteorological winter is a bit over week away . Ahh seems just like yesterday these high pressure systems were talking HEAT, no more...highs = brrr!

[bella_may]

Wow ... anyone see that 12z Euro at Day 10?



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what exactly does that show?lol sorry i can read the snow maps pretty good but the temperature maps just confuse me

[Portastorm]

See the little white lines (isobars) scrunched up over Montana and how they're kinda pointing down to the Southern Plains? That denotes the pressure gradient. It basically means if this would verify, the pattern would deliver cold Arctic air down into the lower 48, namely west of the Mississippi.

And the big "upside down U" over the eastern Pacific would pump a high pressure ridge from the Arctic down into the lower 48 ... again, sliding whatever air is way up there ... on down to us folk in the Southern Plains.

[bella_may]

See the little white lines (isobars) scrunched up over Montana and how they're kinda pointing down to the Southern Plains? That denotes the pressure gradient. It basically means if this would verify, the pattern would deliver cold Arctic air down into the lower 48, namely west of the Mississippi.

And the big "upside down U" over the eastern Pacific would pump a high pressure ridge from the Arctic down into the lower 48 ... again, sliding whatever air is way up there ... on down to us folk in the Southern Plains.

oh ok thank you,thats awesome! hope it verifies for you guys. sadly its west of us.but the gfs is hinting at something for us as well so maybe we'll both see something!one can only hope