Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[TwisterFanatic]

By 180 hours, the CMC has a big system coming out of the four corners region also.

[Rgv20]

This is the forecast 500mb Anomalies from the 12zECMWF Ensembles for Nov6 to Nov10.





The following graphic are some analog dates of the 500mb Anomalies for Nov6 to Nov10.






Taking a look at the precipitation anomalies for the same analog dates it looks like some rainy days is in store for North Texas, parts of Oklahoma and Eastern Arkansas. This coincides very well with the 12zECMWF&12zGFS forecast rainfall in the 6 to 10 day time frame.




The 0zECMWF Ensemble Control Run wants to paint a wet picture for most of Texas but I think most of the rain will stay north of Central,Eastern, and South Texas

[Turtle]

Check out the forecast for the TX Pandhandle.

Wednesday: Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 19 and 24. Very windy, with a north northwest wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than 1 inch possible.

It feels like the panhandle climate is completely different from the rest of Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

looks like after our second panhandle hooker, the GFS is showing a very strong winter storm for the upper midwest.

[cycloneye]

A bitter cold snap for the state with a 1033 mb high on top if this 12z GFS on the 15th pans out.But you know the drill about these long range forecasts.



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[TeamPlayersBlue]

The GFS is trying to sniff something interesting for mid-late Nov. Look at the 500 MB chart..... Looks interesting as well but again, its very early.

[cycloneye]

Looking very wet especially for the NorthCentral part of the state on the 8th if today's 12z Euro is right.

[Rgv20]

The NWS Brownsville had a very informative end of the year preview this afternoon. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2011_autumnoutlook I thought the last part below was very very interesting...will just have to wait and see.

January and Beyond: Will the AO/NAO Play A Role?
In the winters of 2010 and 2011, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its related offspring, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) fell sharply negative. When combined with 2010’s El Niño, the pattern helped develop several Texas Gulf lows which provided ample precipitation to the Valley in December (2009) and February, and brought periodic cooling to the area. Several of these developing cyclones would move through the northern Gulf and eventually turn into significant winter storms along the eastern U.S. seaboard. When combined with 2011’s La Niña, the pattern helped bring periodic arctic–sourced high pressure ridges into the eastern half of North America, particularly from mid January through mid February. This helped increase wintry precipitation totals in the east, and brought chilling fronts into Texas through mid February. One front drew very cold air into the Rio Grande Valley to start February, leading to a significant freeze and ice storm February 2nd through 5th. While no two seasons are exactly alike, the potential exists for some winter weather between mid December and mid February. Some studies shows a relationship between loss of arctic sea ice and an increased potential for a negative phase AO/NAO. Will this occur again later this autumn and winter? Stay tuned.

[somethingfunny]

Interesting, the GFS hasn't dropped that 11/15 date for the first major freeze. Usually these cold snaps get pushed back and pushed back and always stay out there by 384 hours. I know, it's still 336 hours out, but it's progress.

We'll see if the cold air in that forecast moderates as we get closer to mid November but I think the date of that cold snap might be a reliable bet.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... ber-3-2011

LC is still a believer in a cold second half of November. At least we have something exciting to watch for the month!

[natlib]

Freeze warning for San Angelo area tonight. If it happens we'll beat our average first freeze by 10 days.

[gboudx]

Hopefully this means bye-bye to the ragweed.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at 120 hours has plenty of precipitation for most of the state.

[Turtle]

Freeze warning for San Angelo area tonight. If it happens we'll beat our average first freeze by 10 days.

Awesome. My average first freeze is the same but we've yet to officially reach 32 (we dripped into the 30s about 5 days). Sadly it looks like no chance of a freeze here until late November.

[aggiecutter]

Winter forecast from Raleigh WX. I pretty much agree with what he says. According to his forecast, the southern plains and Texas should see periods of cold to very cold weather, with chances for snow an ice. The link below starts at the 1st slide of his slideshow presentation.

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-rale ... st-picture

[Rgv20]

Overall it looks like the next 15 days is going to be above normal in the temperature department for the state of Texas. It looks like the cool weather is going to stick over the western part of the country for a while.


12zGFS Ensembles Forecast 850mb Anomalies for Nov 3 thru Nov 8.




12zGFS Ensembles Forecast 850mb Anomalies for Nov 9 thru Nov 13.




12zGFS Ensembles Forecast 850mb Anomalies for Nov 14 thru Nov 18.

[HockeyTx82]

I took a peek and just before 8 this morning the temp on NOAA's website for Denton was 28!!!!! GOODBYE RAGWEED!!!!!!!!!!!! At least I hope it killed it all off.

[CaptinCrunch]

Got first freeze of the season at the house this morning as the themometer read 29F and a heavy frost covered just about everything.

[vbhoutex]

We only got to 38f here at the house in Houston, but outlying metro areas were at 30-32f. Quick warm up with 80f expected for Sunday.

[Portastorm]

Dropped just below freezing (31 degrees) at the Portastorm Weather Center in scenic southwest Travis County. Area just outside the downtown/urban core were in the upper 20s/low 30s but the central/urban core areas stayed in the middle 30s. ABIA (airport) bottomed out at 26.