ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261545
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 23 20111026
153600 1702N 08437W 7521 02557 0098 +134 +098 184035 035 034 000 00
153630 1704N 08438W 7523 02553 0097 +133 +099 182036 037 036 000 00
153700 1705N 08440W 7522 02553 0091 +137 +095 182038 038 037 000 00
153730 1707N 08442W 7523 02550 0092 +134 +099 182038 038 038 000 00
153800 1709N 08443W 7521 02550 0093 +130 +107 185039 040 039 003 00
153830 1710N 08445W 7523 02546 0084 +137 +105 183038 039 038 002 00
153900 1712N 08446W 7525 02543 0086 +131 +123 177036 039 039 002 00
153930 1713N 08448W 7521 02546 0082 +133 +121 180031 032 039 001 00
154000 1715N 08450W 7522 02543 0086 +129 +115 181031 031 040 000 00
154030 1716N 08451W 7523 02540 0085 +129 +109 179031 032 040 001 00
154100 1718N 08453W 7521 02541 0078 +135 +103 182030 031 041 001 00
154130 1719N 08455W 7523 02536 0075 +134 +102 181029 030 041 000 00
154200 1721N 08457W 7525 02531 0074 +133 +105 180033 035 041 001 00
154230 1722N 08458W 7520 02535 0075 +127 +127 185037 038 041 002 00
154300 1724N 08500W 7526 02527 0073 +128 +115 184038 039 041 000 00
154330 1726N 08501W 7523 02526 0066 +132 +108 183041 043 043 001 00
154400 1727N 08503W 7524 02523 0057 +139 +105 184042 043 042 000 00
154430 1729N 08505W 7521 02523 0055 +136 +118 190042 043 042 000 00
154500 1730N 08506W 7526 02515 0052 +137 +113 190043 044 041 002 00
154530 1732N 08508W 7524 02510 0039 +144 +101 189046 047 040 003 00

[ObsessedMiami]

She will get up to the Gulf on Friday and be just powerful enough to make you wonder.... then she will be ripped apart. Sort of like in the Halloween movies when Michael Myers, seemingly dead, gives one last lunge at Jamie Lee Curtis.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Don't think will get much rain this winter in Florida. The lake could use some more. Hopefully we get some rain from Rina this weekend. Other then that. Don't think much of her. Definitely not 2005.

05? Shouldn't even be mentioned in the same sentence. I'am actually suprised this thing developed at all with all the (unknown) issues this basin has seen just about all season. Hopefully this is it.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261555
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 24 20111026
154600 1733N 08510W 7524 02509 0039 +140 +110 193045 046 041 000 00
154630 1735N 08511W 7526 02501 0033 +138 +122 192048 050 042 001 00
154700 1736N 08513W 7523 02498 0025 +139 +122 199053 055 043 001 00
154730 1738N 08515W 7524 02490 0011 +146 +115 196055 056 045 001 00
154800 1740N 08516W 7525 02481 9989 +161 +102 196059 061 046 002 00
154830 1741N 08518W 7524 02471 9974 +167 +097 195062 063 048 001 00
154900 1743N 08519W 7523 02465 9962 +171 +099 193064 066 050 001 00
154930 1744N 08521W 7522 02454 9942 +180 +091 190066 067 048 002 00
155000 1745N 08523W 7524 02442 9921 +188 +101 195060 062 049 000 00
155030 1746N 08525W 7522 02434 9900 +198 +099 204059 062 049 000 00
155100 1746N 08527W 7527 02412 9868 +218 +088 212054 055 049 000 03
155130 1747N 08529W 7518 02413 9842 +233 +084 219052 054 047 001 00
155200 1749N 08531W 7527 02388 9808 +257 +072 230036 044 032 000 03
155230 1750N 08532W 7519 02386 9801 +252 +079 245028 030 024 000 00
155300 1752N 08533W 7528 02367 9810 +229 +099 237024 026 019 000 00
155330 1753N 08535W 7527 02369 9828 +205 +112 011006 020 029 001 00
155400 1755N 08536W 7528 02366 9833 +202 +115 040031 038 040 006 00
155430 1757N 08537W 7522 02381 9859 +175 +150 042041 043 044 025 03
155500 1758N 08538W 7541 02376 9880 +171 +155 058045 046 066 031 00
155530 1800N 08540W 7529 02403 9916 +150 //// 069063 073 064 038 05

Pressure extrapolated: 980
Max wind inbound: flight level 67 kt, SFMR 50 kt
Max wind outbound: flight level 73 kt, SFMR 66 kt

[cycloneye]

The 95kts at 10 AM CDT advisory was very generous as NOAA plane just found pressure way up (980 mbs) from the 967 mbs it had at advisory.

[JTE50]

Hurricane Rina is dead Jim. Bones she is life support and fading fast.

Indeed, I saw all that dry air around Rina and decided not to go to MX again. I rarely pass on a hurricane but my crystal ball said stay home even though I might get some daylight shooting hours unlike Jova - which I saw from my headlights in Emiliano Zapata, MX.

[SouthDadeFish]

Pressure has dropped 3 millibars in the last hour though according to the NOAA plane.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261605
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 25 20111026
155600 1801N 08542W 7512 02449 9944 +147 //// 064076 080 062 029 01
155630 1803N 08543W 7530 02448 9980 +138 +134 058067 071 065 015 03
155700 1804N 08545W 7516 02474 9999 +131 +122 058068 070 053 005 00
155730 1806N 08546W 7540 02459 0014 +129 +129 060068 069 053 002 00
155800 1807N 08548W 7539 02469 0021 +132 +121 066068 069 052 005 00
155830 1809N 08549W 7513 02501 0023 +130 //// 068063 065 053 008 01
155900 1810N 08551W 7529 02489 0029 +131 +135 066062 063 049 006 00
155930 1812N 08553W 7521 02504 0029 +141 +119 065055 056 048 002 00
160000 1813N 08554W 7526 02503 0043 +132 +117 067059 061 045 001 00
160030 1815N 08556W 7521 02515 0060 +121 +126 063058 059 044 002 00
160100 1816N 08557W 7519 02523 0066 +121 +118 059057 058 042 000 00
160130 1818N 08559W 7523 02521 0062 +131 +110 063055 057 041 004 00
160200 1819N 08600W 7522 02523 0063 +129 +116 068055 055 040 005 00
160230 1821N 08602W 7520 02524 0070 +123 +111 069056 057 040 002 00
160300 1822N 08603W 7518 02530 0080 +118 +103 068056 056 039 000 00
160330 1824N 08605W 7520 02531 0083 +117 +099 068054 054 037 000 00
160400 1825N 08607W 7520 02532 0088 +114 +093 070054 055 038 001 00
160430 1827N 08608W 7521 02534 0086 +118 +092 071053 054 037 000 00
160500 1828N 08610W 7520 02539 0087 +123 +086 069048 050 037 000 00
160530 1830N 08612W 7520 02543 0093 +122 +081 065045 046 036 000 00

Max wind flight level NW quadrant: 80 kt

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261615
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 26 20111026
160600 1831N 08613W 7517 02547 0093 +126 +066 062045 046 035 001 00
160630 1833N 08615W 7520 02546 0101 +122 +056 062044 046 035 000 00
160700 1835N 08616W 7519 02551 0107 +120 +054 061040 041 034 000 00
160730 1836N 08618W 7519 02552 0106 +123 +052 061038 039 033 000 00
160800 1838N 08620W 7520 02553 0106 +125 +053 061037 038 033 000 00
160830 1839N 08621W 7519 02556 0106 +125 +054 059035 035 032 001 00
160900 1841N 08623W 7519 02557 0107 +127 +053 057033 034 032 000 00
160930 1842N 08625W 7520 02558 0112 +122 +076 059030 031 031 000 00
161000 1844N 08626W 7519 02560 0110 +126 +067 059032 033 031 000 00
161030 1845N 08628W 7521 02557 0105 +128 +069 065033 034 031 000 00
161100 1847N 08630W 7522 02554 0101 +132 +060 069035 036 032 000 00
161130 1848N 08631W 7522 02553 0097 +138 +041 072036 037 033 000 00
161200 1850N 08633W 7521 02556 0101 +135 +051 072033 035 031 000 00
161230 1851N 08635W 7520 02560 0111 +126 +070 068029 030 031 000 00
161300 1853N 08636W 7520 02563 0111 +128 +068 071029 030 030 000 00
161330 1854N 08638W 7524 02558 0107 +133 +063 074028 029 031 000 00
161400 1856N 08640W 7521 02565 0118 +126 +068 073026 028 030 000 00
161430 1857N 08641W 7521 02562 0115 +126 +069 072025 025 /// /// 03
161500 1859N 08641W 7523 02560 0116 +126 +068 070025 025 032 000 03
161530 1900N 08639W 7522 02562 0116 +127 +069 068025 025 030 000 00

[tolakram]

Another burst starting. The core is really all that's left of an significance, IMO, and it appears dry air is getting into the break in convection.

Live vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KWBC 261614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/1443Z
B. 17 DEG 48 MIN N
85 DEG 26 MIN W
C. NA
D. 61 KT
E. 071 DEG 7 NM
F. 160 DEG 81 KT
G. 068 DEG 9 NM
H. 982 MB
I. 12 C/2441 M
J. 18 C/2426 M
K. 14 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0718A RINA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 81KT NE QUAD 1440Z

(VDM for first pass)

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS: Another SFL hit in 90 hours. This is all contingent on Rina actually surviving the next 48 of course.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal090.gif

Overall, models make big north and west shifts overnight, with the NHC cone now on the far east (days 1-3) and south (4-5) side of the models, which still amazingly have little actual agreement:

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261625
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 27 20111026
161600 1901N 08638W 7522 02563 0116 +126 +073 066024 024 032 000 00
161630 1903N 08636W 7520 02565 0115 +127 +073 067024 025 035 001 00
161700 1904N 08635W 7521 02564 0116 +126 +074 069025 026 035 000 00
161730 1905N 08633W 7522 02563 0115 +126 +082 067024 025 033 000 00
161800 1907N 08632W 7520 02565 0115 +126 +081 071025 025 031 000 00
161830 1908N 08631W 7522 02562 0113 +127 +073 076028 029 031 001 03
161900 1909N 08629W 7520 02562 0112 +124 +081 080031 034 032 001 03
161930 1910N 08627W 7521 02559 0105 +131 +077 082032 034 031 001 00
162000 1911N 08626W 7522 02559 0105 +132 +078 081029 030 030 002 00
162030 1913N 08624W 7522 02559 0104 +135 +073 078025 027 035 001 00
162100 1914N 08623W 7522 02559 0104 +134 +075 079022 023 037 000 00
162130 1916N 08622W 7523 02559 0108 +131 +072 080021 022 036 000 00
162200 1917N 08620W 7523 02560 0109 +131 +069 081020 021 034 000 00
162230 1918N 08619W 7522 02560 0108 +132 +072 078021 022 035 000 00
162300 1920N 08617W 7521 02562 0108 +131 +076 079021 022 036 000 00
162330 1921N 08616W 7522 02559 0106 +133 +078 077019 020 037 000 00
162400 1922N 08614W 7523 02559 0108 +132 +080 080018 019 038 001 00
162430 1924N 08613W 7522 02562 0109 +132 +080 084021 023 038 000 00
162500 1925N 08611W 7522 02563 0110 +130 +087 084024 025 036 001 00
162530 1926N 08610W 7524 02561 0106 +135 +077 085026 029 036 000 00

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KWBC 261623
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/1553Z
B. 17 DEG 53 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 125 DEG 18 NM
F. 191 DEG 65 KT
G. 126 DEG 15 NM
H. 982 MB
I. 14 C/2443 M
J. 26 C/2445 M
K. 8 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0718A RINA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 81KT NE QUAD 1440Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 78KT NW QUAD 1556Z

(VDM for second pass)

[HurricaneBelle]

WTNT63 KNHC 261644
TCUAT3

HURRICANE RINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1145 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT RINA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED...

RECENT REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1230 PM
CDT...1730 UTC...IN PLACE OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.


SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.7W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Evil Jeremy]

I've never seen a special advisory for rapid weakening.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261635
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 28 20111026
162600 1928N 08609W 7525 02558 0101 +140 +072 076027 028 037 002 00
162630 1929N 08607W 7524 02559 0102 +141 +055 079027 029 037 004 00
162700 1930N 08606W 7524 02561 0108 +133 +084 074027 028 037 004 00
162730 1932N 08604W 7522 02563 0108 +134 +081 074026 027 038 005 00
162800 1933N 08603W 7525 02559 0107 +135 +081 078025 026 035 005 00
162830 1934N 08601W 7525 02561 0110 +133 +081 092020 022 036 006 00
162900 1935N 08600W 7524 02563 0114 +128 +100 089019 020 037 006 00
162930 1937N 08558W 7525 02565 0115 +132 +081 086025 027 035 006 00
163000 1938N 08557W 7521 02569 0114 +134 +071 102022 024 035 005 00
163030 1939N 08555W 7518 02570 0112 +134 +070 119020 030 035 004 00
163100 1941N 08554W 7524 02565 0114 +136 +058 101024 026 033 003 00
163130 1942N 08552W 7524 02564 0117 +130 +070 092013 015 033 004 00
163200 1943N 08551W 7523 02567 0115 +131 +065 120017 026 033 002 00
163230 1945N 08549W 7524 02565 0118 +132 +048 122023 025 031 002 00
163300 1946N 08547W 7523 02564 0119 +131 +047 111021 021 032 001 00
163330 1947N 08546W 7524 02565 0118 +131 +057 112019 020 033 003 00
163400 1949N 08544W 7524 02566 0113 +137 +044 114018 020 035 005 00
163430 1950N 08543W 7524 02564 0112 +136 +060 117018 019 037 008 00
163500 1952N 08541W 7528 02562 0114 +135 +068 107017 018 038 010 03
163530 1954N 08541W 7524 02566 0113 +135 +070 096019 020 035 011 00

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261645
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 29 20111026
163600 1956N 08540W 7526 02563 0116 +130 +089 100019 020 036 009 00
163630 1958N 08540W 7524 02564 0120 +126 +092 110019 020 035 008 00
163700 2000N 08540W 7524 02564 0122 +124 +091 114020 021 035 008 00
163730 2002N 08540W 7526 02564 0129 +117 +095 117024 025 034 010 00
163800 2004N 08540W 7524 02565 0125 +121 +093 115020 021 032 009 00
163830 2006N 08540W 7523 02567 0119 +127 +092 098018 020 031 008 00
163900 2008N 08540W 7523 02567 0122 +123 +096 087022 023 033 007 00
163930 2010N 08540W 7524 02564 0124 +120 +101 084025 026 029 006 00
164000 2012N 08539W 7525 02565 0125 +120 +098 088026 026 029 003 00
164030 2014N 08539W 7524 02566 0126 +119 +095 091026 026 028 002 00
164100 2016N 08539W 7525 02564 0126 +120 +087 089026 027 027 000 00
164130 2018N 08539W 7524 02566 0127 +121 +081 086029 030 027 001 00
164200 2020N 08539W 7524 02567 0126 +122 +085 084028 029 028 002 00
164230 2022N 08539W 7526 02564 0123 +124 +086 084028 030 028 003 00
164300 2024N 08538W 7524 02566 0123 +124 +088 084028 028 028 004 00
164330 2026N 08538W 7525 02566 0124 +123 +088 085028 028 028 003 00
164400 2028N 08538W 7526 02564 0123 +125 +086 083027 027 028 002 00
164430 2030N 08538W 7525 02566 0122 +127 +089 081024 026 028 002 00
164500 2032N 08538W 7524 02566 0118 +129 +085 080023 024 029 001 00
164530 2034N 08538W 7525 02564 0115 +132 +081 081019 021 027 001 00

NOAA plane is leaving, so I'll switch to the incoming AF plane.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261704
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 15 20111026
164830 2103N 08547W 3762 08026 0413 -191 -218 192012 013 028 000 00
164900 2101N 08546W 3758 08033 0412 -193 -219 195012 013 029 000 00
164930 2059N 08545W 3760 08030 0411 -194 -218 199012 013 028 001 00
165000 2056N 08543W 3759 08031 0411 -190 -216 201011 011 029 000 00
165030 2054N 08542W 3758 08032 0411 -192 -208 174013 014 030 000 00
165100 2052N 08541W 3755 08038 0410 -186 -216 172012 013 030 000 00
165130 2049N 08540W 3758 08032 0409 -181 -226 181014 016 030 000 00
165200 2047N 08539W 3771 08010 0410 -180 -221 175017 017 031 001 00
165230 2045N 08538W 3818 07914 0404 -180 -207 168014 015 031 000 00
165300 2042N 08536W 3862 07829 0398 -180 -186 164012 013 032 000 00
165330 2040N 08535W 3898 07760 0394 -173 //// 173011 011 033 001 01
165400 2038N 08534W 3933 07693 0390 -170 //// 188010 010 034 002 01
165430 2035N 08533W 3960 07642 0388 -165 //// 168012 013 035 002 01
165500 2033N 08532W 3988 07590 0386 -163 //// 152012 012 037 003 01
165530 2031N 08530W 4030 07513 0382 -155 //// 143009 010 036 004 01
165600 2028N 08529W 4077 07425 0377 -150 //// 135009 010 036 003 01
165630 2026N 08528W 4119 07347 0371 -149 //// 126008 010 040 006 01
165700 2024N 08527W 4160 07272 0365 -144 //// 105010 010 038 005 01
165730 2021N 08526W 4209 07183 0359 -138 //// 094010 011 039 007 01
165800 2019N 08524W 4246 07115 0355 -135 //// 128010 012 041 009 01

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261713
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 16 20111026
165830 2017N 08523W 4266 07083 0354 -130 //// 144014 015 040 009 01
165900 2014N 08522W 4321 06984 0347 -122 //// 127012 014 043 011 01
165930 2012N 08521W 4353 06924 0342 -118 //// 153023 026 038 018 05
170000 2010N 08519W 4408 06826 0334 -115 //// 145026 027 039 012 05
170030 2009N 08517W 4480 06701 0329 -109 //// 148024 024 040 011 01
170100 2008N 08515W 4572 06552 0326 -099 //// 116022 026 041 014 01
170130 2006N 08514W 4621 06470 0319 -093 //// 123032 034 042 013 01
170200 2005N 08512W 4690 06355 0312 -089 //// 127028 030 040 010 01
170230 2004N 08510W 4758 06245 0305 -084 //// 122027 028 041 010 01
170300 2003N 08508W 4823 06136 0299 -078 //// 120029 031 041 008 01
170330 2001N 08506W 4899 06014 0291 -071 //// 124029 031 041 010 01
170400 2000N 08505W 4974 05895 0286 -066 //// 125029 030 039 009 01
170430 1959N 08503W 5058 05764 0278 -060 //// 124027 028 036 009 01
170500 1957N 08501W 5128 05660 0272 -057 //// 126028 029 029 001 01
170530 1956N 08459W 5184 05573 0267 -051 //// 127031 032 028 001 01
170600 1955N 08457W 5251 05476 0263 -048 //// 130030 031 027 002 01
170630 1954N 08456W 5308 05389 0257 -042 //// 134032 033 023 000 01
170700 1952N 08454W 5385 05276 0251 -040 //// 137034 035 028 000 01
170730 1951N 08452W 5462 05160 0244 -037 //// 137030 033 029 000 01
170800 1950N 08450W 5549 05034 0104 -029 //// 139027 028 034 000 01