ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 260814
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 36 20111026
080430 1752N 08508W 6971 03071 //// +049 //// 082078 080 054 017 01
080500 1754N 08508W 6959 03094 //// +047 //// 081071 073 055 016 01
080530 1755N 08508W 6964 03094 //// +046 //// 084069 071 053 022 01
080600 1757N 08508W 6967 03099 //// +056 //// 083068 071 053 013 01
080630 1759N 08508W 6987 03078 //// +048 //// 084061 064 051 012 01
080700 1800N 08508W 6943 03130 //// +056 //// 085056 061 051 016 01
080730 1802N 08508W 6980 03093 //// +059 //// 089057 060 051 007 01
080800 1804N 08508W 6960 03123 //// +068 //// 091058 060 050 006 01
080830 1805N 08508W 6976 03109 //// +068 //// 092056 058 049 006 01
080900 1807N 08508W 6969 03122 //// +066 //// 090052 053 046 007 01
080930 1809N 08508W 6965 03130 0041 +076 //// 088050 051 046 006 01
081000 1810N 08508W 6971 03124 0041 +079 //// 090045 046 046 006 01
081030 1812N 08508W 6965 03137 0034 +086 +083 091045 047 045 005 00
081100 1814N 08508W 6965 03137 0039 +083 //// 093047 048 044 005 01
081130 1816N 08508W 6971 03131 0042 +082 //// 094048 048 041 005 01
081200 1818N 08508W 6967 03137 0043 +083 //// 094048 048 040 004 01
081230 1819N 08508W 6963 03144 0039 +087 +086 095046 047 039 003 00
081300 1821N 08508W 6972 03137 0042 +088 +083 097046 047 039 004 00
081330 1823N 08508W 6963 03149 0048 +085 +082 100047 048 040 003 00
081400 1825N 08508W 6966 03146 0054 +081 //// 102047 047 039 004 01
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 260824
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 37 20111026
081430 1827N 08508W 6970 03144 0060 +080 //// 100043 044 038 005 01
081500 1828N 08508W 6965 03152 0061 +081 +081 103041 042 038 006 00
081530 1830N 08508W 6963 03157 0068 +077 //// 097038 039 039 005 01
081600 1832N 08508W 6969 03152 0064 +083 +078 094035 035 039 004 00
081630 1834N 08508W 6963 03161 0062 +085 +076 096035 036 040 004 00
081700 1836N 08508W 6967 03155 0062 +085 +074 097033 033 040 003 00
081730 1837N 08508W 6970 03152 0063 +084 +072 096035 036 038 004 00
081800 1839N 08508W 6964 03160 0061 +087 +071 096035 036 037 003 00
081830 1841N 08508W 6963 03159 0057 +089 +072 098037 037 035 003 00
081900 1843N 08508W 6970 03150 0059 +087 +071 103039 040 035 003 00
081930 1845N 08508W 6965 03156 0059 +086 +068 109043 044 035 003 00
082000 1846N 08508W 6967 03151 0058 +085 +064 115047 049 035 003 00
082030 1848N 08508W 6970 03148 0063 +081 +063 114050 050 033 004 00
082100 1848N 08508W 6970 03148 0066 +080 +061 109047 049 033 003 00
082130 1852N 08508W 6966 03156 0065 +084 +054 106046 046 032 002 00
082200 1854N 08508W 6964 03161 0069 +083 +048 111046 046 032 003 00
082230 1856N 08508W 6965 03162 0075 +081 +046 112043 044 032 002 00
082300 1858N 08508W 6972 03153 0076 +080 +047 108038 040 030 003 00
082330 1900N 08508W 6963 03165 0079 +079 +043 102038 038 029 001 00
082400 1902N 08508W 6966 03160 0073 +084 +033 101040 041 027 001 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 260834
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 38 20111026
082430 1904N 08509W 6963 03163 0071 +086 +028 105043 043 026 002 00
082500 1906N 08509W 6971 03156 0074 +085 +026 106041 042 027 002 00
082530 1907N 08509W 6966 03163 0078 +083 +025 105038 038 027 002 00
082600 1909N 08510W 6966 03162 0081 +079 +026 104035 038 029 004 00
082630 1911N 08510W 6983 03140 0086 +076 +042 104037 040 031 007 03
082700 1913N 08510W 6963 03162 0088 +071 +047 105034 036 030 004 03
082730 1915N 08510W 6976 03146 0100 +052 //// 104033 034 027 004 01
082800 1917N 08510W 6964 03166 0076 +081 +064 109035 035 023 003 00
082830 1919N 08510W 6965 03165 0080 +080 +053 107034 034 021 003 00
082900 1920N 08510W 6969 03159 0082 +078 +048 106035 035 022 003 00
082930 1922N 08510W 6970 03159 0078 +082 +037 102036 037 /// /// 03
083000 1924N 08511W 6966 03162 0073 +086 +035 101039 040 029 006 03
083030 1925N 08513W 6969 03160 0075 +086 +031 103040 040 026 005 00
083100 1927N 08515W 6970 03159 0078 +084 +031 106037 037 024 002 00
083130 1928N 08516W 6967 03164 0090 +076 +036 106033 034 024 003 00
083200 1929N 08518W 6964 03167 0083 +079 +043 106031 032 026 003 00
083230 1930N 08519W 6966 03164 0082 +079 +045 105031 031 028 003 00
083300 1932N 08521W 6967 03162 0087 +076 +045 104029 030 028 004 00
083330 1933N 08522W 6961 03170 0076 +083 +045 104029 029 030 004 03
083400 1935N 08524W 6832 03325 0086 +069 +038 100027 028 032 001 00
$$
;

000
URNT15 KNHC 260844
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 39 20111026
083430 1936N 08525W 6777 03393 0089 +063 +038 097028 029 031 002 03
083500 1938N 08525W 6742 03437 0089 +060 +035 100028 028 030 005 03
083530 1940N 08525W 6708 03479 0097 +054 +026 101027 028 034 006 00
083600 1942N 08525W 6707 03480 0090 +054 //// 109025 029 032 006 01
083630 1944N 08525W 6702 03486 0095 +053 //// 089023 026 028 004 01
083700 1945N 08524W 6697 03491 0090 +054 //// 081019 022 031 007 01
083730 1947N 08524W 6701 03488 0094 +044 //// 092025 029 035 011 01
083800 1949N 08524W 6702 03490 //// +029 //// 093029 032 035 011 01
083830 1950N 08524W 6697 03493 //// +034 //// 088029 029 035 006 01
083900 1952N 08523W 6701 03490 0097 +051 //// 087029 031 043 010 01
083930 1954N 08523W 6704 03486 //// +032 //// 076024 028 045 016 05
084000 1956N 08523W 6695 03493 //// +023 //// 065019 021 049 018 05
084030 1957N 08523W 6705 03484 0111 +042 //// 058023 024 038 015 05
084100 1959N 08522W 6711 03479 0098 +043 //// 069022 023 041 016 01
084130 2001N 08522W 6689 03504 //// +045 //// 070023 029 038 021 01
084200 2002N 08522W 6716 03469 0090 +050 //// 076020 020 034 009 01
084230 2004N 08521W 6698 03496 0098 +052 //// 081022 024 035 007 05
084300 2006N 08521W 6704 03485 0093 +054 //// 091026 027 034 006 01
084330 2007N 08520W 6699 03491 0096 +052 //// 099026 027 035 009 01
084400 2009N 08520W 6698 03492 0096 +047 //// 102024 027 034 008 01
$$
;

[westwind]

Plane ascending mission over

000
URNT15 KNHC 260854
AF304 0618A RINA HDOB 40 20111026
084430 2011N 08519W 6705 03481 0097 +051 //// 107025 026 032 006 05
084500 2013N 08519W 6701 03488 0101 +048 //// 103026 027 030 004 05
084530 2014N 08519W 6701 03487 0096 +051 //// 102027 029 028 005 01
084600 2016N 08520W 6703 03486 //// +049 //// 094029 031 028 004 05
084630 2018N 08521W 6691 03497 0093 +047 //// 087033 035 028 004 05
084700 2019N 08522W 6523 03706 //// +032 //// 076031 033 030 005 01
084730 2021N 08524W 6327 03955 //// +005 //// 082023 030 030 005 01
084800 2022N 08525W 6139 04197 //// +012 //// 105025 029 029 003 05
084830 2024N 08527W 5990 04404 //// +005 //// 118031 031 027 003 05
084900 2025N 08528W 5762 04713 //// -013 //// 123025 029 /// /// 05
084930 2027N 08529W 5514 05064 //// -030 //// 119019 020 /// /// 05
085000 2029N 08529W 5310 05355 0237 -042 //// 122016 017 027 002 05
085030 2031N 08530W 5144 05612 0251 -055 //// 115018 018 026 002 01
085100 2033N 08531W 5004 05834 0265 -065 //// 100020 021 025 002 01
085130 2035N 08532W 4927 05955 0274 -064 //// 105012 015 027 001 01
085200 2036N 08533W 4855 06071 0282 -067 //// 124009 010 026 002 01
085230 2038N 08534W 4776 06199 0290 -077 -088 140008 008 024 003 00
085300 2040N 08535W 4716 06297 0295 -086 -111 143006 007 026 001 00
085330 2042N 08536W 4657 06394 0301 -094 -143 138003 005 025 002 00
085400 2044N 08537W 4598 06495 0309 -100 -201 056002 003 026 001 00
$$
;

[westwind]

Next mission leaves in about an hour. I will take it if nobody else is up by then but I do have an essay to write.

FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 26/1200Z
B. NOAA2 0718A RINA
C. 26/0800Z
D. 18.1N 85.7W
E. 26/1030Z TO 26/1400Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[NDG]

Rina has continued to move almost straight west during the night, pressure has risen slightly and cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday.
IMO, things are looking better for the FL Keys and deep S FL.
The Euro has been persistent in or almost dissipating Rina before it even gets out of Yucatan P and now the GFS has been trending southward once again and we are beginning to get a better concensus that Rina may not get out of the Caribbean, as least as a whole.
The only dynamical model still showing a S FL landfall is the crazy GFDL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Nimbus]

Looks like she is intensifying this morning with deeper more symmetric convection. The models must be trying to forecast what happens when the dry air finally intrudes on the core. The Yucatan might tighten up the circulation some but the air up over the gulf is bone dry so she will be losing moisture on the western side of the storm as she approaches the coast. No big surprises with the models and she is just meandering WNW at the moment.

[ronjon]

Latest GFS and ECM globals are showing that the first shortwave trough will be weaker and that the cold front will probably stall somewhere over the FL peninsula on Sat. It's not until a second deeper shortwave on Monday/Tuesday that finally pushes the front down the peninsula. What does this mean for Rina? The weakening trend forecast in the GOM will still occur but she may meander about in the SE GOM or FL straits for a couple of days. Could mean more heavy rain for S FL and the keys.

[wxman57]

I still don't think there will be much left of Rina beyond Saturday. It should merge with the front and be gone as a TC by Sunday. The 06Z GFS actually agrees with the scenario I'm envisioning. Cold front drives through Florida by Saturday evening. Northerly winds 20-30 kts across the Gulf and Florida feed quite a bit of cool, dry air into Rina. No hurricane hitting south Florida.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
700 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

...RINA CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY LATE THURSDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE TODAY OR TONIGHT. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER RINA
MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER TODAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

...RINA CONTINUES ITS SLOW MOTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES

[x-y-no]

6z GFDL continues to insist on SFL:



Seems to be the only one at this point. (I'm still not getting out the shutters)

[Frank2]

Thanks, wxman57, for some common sense meteorology...

...but leave it to JB to predict a disaster scenario for South Florida - where did he go to school (lol)?

Frank

[sandyb]

Thanks, wxman57, for some common sense meteorology...

...but leave it to JB to predict a disaster scenario for South Florida - where did he go to school (lol)?

Frank

where did you read that JB predicted a disaster scenario for Florida I have a couple of nieces headed down there for a cruise on Monday. I wanna get all the info I can get for them.

[AdamFirst]

Thanks, wxman57, for some common sense meteorology...

...but leave it to JB to predict a disaster scenario for South Florida - where did he go to school (lol)?

Frank

where did you read that JB predicted a disaster scenario for Florida I have a couple of nieces headed down there for a cruise on Monday. I wanna get all the info I can get for them.

He was being sarcastic.

Joe Bastardi on Twitter has consistently predicted a low end Category 1 hurricane or a strong tropical storm for South Florida, similar to the GFDL solutions.

[AdamFirst]

Models still have zero agreement...but at least there is some individual run-to-run consistency (GFDL, GFS)

[wxman57]

Thanks, wxman57, for some common sense meteorology...

...but leave it to JB to predict a disaster scenario for South Florida - where did he go to school (lol)?

Frank

where did you read that JB predicted a disaster scenario for Florida I have a couple of nieces headed down there for a cruise on Monday. I wanna get all the info I can get for them.

JB tweeted that Rina would hit south Florida as a hurricane. Frank exaggerated the disaster part a bit. Where are your nieces heading on their cruise? Weather across the Bahamas, FL Straits and NW Caribbean looks rather unsettled for the next 4-5 days. Not much sunshine.

[westwind]

NOAA plane taking off now who wants to take recon?

000
URNT15 KWBC 261215
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 02 20111026
120600 2737N 08227W 7386 02725 0111 +145 -345 068006 008 /// /// 03
120630 2736N 08228W 7293 02833 0111 +137 -347 043004 005 /// /// 03
120700 2734N 08230W 7197 02943 0111 +130 -346 026003 004 /// /// 03
120730 2732N 08231W 7084 03077 0114 +119 -344 035003 003 /// /// 03
120800 2731N 08232W 6996 03177 0116 +110 -342 057003 004 /// /// 03
120830 2729N 08234W 6942 03242 0117 +103 -340 081004 005 /// /// 03
120900 2727N 08235W 6852 03350 0120 +096 -339 102006 007 /// /// 03
120930 2726N 08236W 6723 03508 0114 +091 -339 112006 008 /// /// 03
121000 2724N 08238W 6656 03593 0112 +087 -339 104006 007 /// /// 03
121030 2722N 08239W 6608 03651 0106 +086 -339 096007 007 /// /// 03
121100 2720N 08241W 6550 03720 0102 +084 -339 063006 006 /// /// 03
121130 2719N 08242W 6479 03813 0099 +080 -339 037006 006 /// /// 03
121200 2717N 08243W 6400 03913 0098 +074 -340 055006 006 /// /// 03
121230 2715N 08245W 6330 04003 0100 +067 -341 060007 007 /// /// 03
121300 2713N 08246W 6252 04103 0105 +058 -343 048007 008 /// /// 03
121330 2711N 08247W 6204 04169 0111 +052 -345 030008 008 /// /// 03
121400 2709N 08247W 6151 04241 0111 +047 -346 029007 007 /// /// 03
121430 2708N 08245W 6079 04334 0112 +040 -346 029005 006 /// /// 03
121500 2706N 08244W 6036 04392 0111 +036 -348 040004 004 /// /// 03
121530 2704N 08243W 5986 04458 0112 +031 -349 068004 004 /// /// 03

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KWBC 261225
NOAA2 0718A RINA HDOB 03 20111026
121600 2702N 08241W 5913 04558 0116 +022 -350 079004 005 /// /// 03
121630 2701N 08240W 5832 04669 0118 +015 -352 075005 005 /// /// 03
121700 2659N 08238W 5792 04726 0118 +011 -355 069003 003 /// /// 03
121730 2657N 08237W 5763 04766 0114 +010 -357 068001 002 /// /// 03
121800 2655N 08236W 5728 04812 0114 +007 -358 066001 002 /// /// 03
121830 2653N 08236W 5695 04861 0117 +003 -361 068003 003 /// /// 03
121900 2651N 08237W 5656 04915 0117 -001 -363 090004 004 /// /// 03
121930 2649N 08238W 5620 04966 0119 -005 -365 087005 005 /// /// 03
122000 2647N 08240W 5569 05041 0122 -012 -367 076006 007 /// /// 03
122030 2646N 08241W 5523 05102 0124 -016 -370 067007 007 /// /// 03
122100 2644N 08243W 5530 05096 0125 -016 -372 066006 006 /// /// 03
122130 2643N 08245W 5511 05122 0127 -019 -373 059006 007 /// /// 03
122200 2641N 08247W 5513 05121 0129 -019 -374 065006 007 /// /// 03
122230 2640N 08249W 5514 05120 0129 -018 -375 071006 006 /// /// 03
122300 2639N 08252W 5514 05123 0131 -019 -378 077007 007 /// /// 03
122330 2638N 08254W 5514 05120 0128 -018 -381 079007 007 /// /// 03
122400 2637N 08256W 5513 05120 0126 -018 -383 080007 007 004 000 03
122430 2636N 08259W 5513 05119 0124 -017 -385 090006 007 003 000 03
122500 2635N 08301W 5513 05120 0123 -016 -387 096006 007 005 000 00
122530 2634N 08303W 5514 05119 0122 -016 -388 095006 007 006 000 00

[adam0983]

It is going to be a race to see if Hurricane Rina beats the cold front or not. If Rina beats or rides the cold front it will stay a stronger storm. If Rina doesn't beat the front it will get ripped apart by shear and pushed to the south because the front will block Rina from going north.

[wxman57]

Rina is losing the race now. It's hardly moved since yesterday. 24hr forecasts from yesterday morning were way too fast.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

Remains at 95kts.

AL, 18, 2011102612, , BEST, 0, 177N, 853W, 95, 967, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest