ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252347
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 23 20111025
233730 1807N 08317W 7511 02559 0095 +128 +078 119039 039 028 000 00
233800 1806N 08319W 7511 02559 0099 +122 +084 119039 039 030 001 00
233830 1805N 08321W 7508 02563 0103 +119 +090 118040 040 030 000 00
233900 1803N 08323W 7512 02558 0099 +122 +087 119041 042 030 000 00
233930 1802N 08325W 7510 02558 0099 +120 +088 116043 043 032 001 00
234000 1801N 08327W 7510 02555 0095 +121 +089 117044 044 033 003 00
234030 1800N 08329W 7509 02554 0090 +123 +095 119045 046 035 009 00
234100 1759N 08331W 7484 02584 0082 +124 +126 113041 045 051 030 03
234130 1758N 08333W 7471 02596 0085 +120 //// 124043 047 057 014 05
234200 1757N 08335W 7497 02566 0085 +123 +108 127045 046 029 000 00
234230 1756N 08337W 7510 02549 0084 +123 +109 127047 047 031 003 00
234300 1755N 08339W 7512 02547 0083 +122 +111 128047 047 032 002 00
234330 1754N 08341W 7511 02546 0082 +120 +114 129047 048 033 002 00
234400 1753N 08343W 7507 02548 0081 +121 +107 133049 050 034 001 00
234430 1752N 08345W 7509 02544 0074 +127 +103 137051 052 035 002 00
234500 1751N 08347W 7514 02536 0064 +133 +100 134051 052 037 002 00
234530 1750N 08349W 7508 02538 0068 +123 +109 134052 054 037 003 00
234600 1750N 08351W 7515 02527 0064 +122 //// 129047 051 037 008 01
234630 1749N 08353W 7505 02537 0058 +126 +128 129056 059 047 009 03
234700 1748N 08356W 7509 02530 0055 +129 +110 128058 059 036 003 00

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260007
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 25 20111025
235730 1730N 08441W 7499 02313 9779 +146 //// 040081 096 090 018 05
235800 1730N 08443W 7509 02348 9843 +130 //// 030098 099 081 054 05
235830 1730N 08446W 7511 02386 9892 +124 //// 029100 102 078 044 05
235900 1730N 08448W 7521 02400 9921 +127 //// 034095 097 077 031 01
235930 1730N 08451W 7503 02443 9949 +130 //// 023089 092 072 021 05
000000 1730N 08453W 7538 02437 9978 +136 +134 022080 087 067 012 00
000030 1730N 08455W 7529 02458 9965 +164 +122 015062 067 064 011 00
000100 1730N 08457W 7532 02454 9961 +173 +105 021056 058 059 006 00
000130 1730N 08500W 7533 02456 9954 +180 +099 023058 060 059 006 00
000200 1730N 08502W 7504 02496 9984 +154 +107 026062 066 055 005 00
000230 1730N 08504W 7499 02515 0033 +118 +109 029071 072 051 003 00
000300 1730N 08507W 7502 02518 0046 +116 +106 028068 069 048 001 00
000330 1730N 08509W 7486 02542 0051 +116 +114 023066 067 047 003 00
000400 1730N 08512W 7504 02526 0054 +119 +123 024064 070 043 004 00
000430 1729N 08514W 7516 02520 0062 +117 +114 029064 067 040 003 00
000500 1729N 08516W 7513 02528 0068 +118 +115 028060 062 038 002 00
000530 1729N 08519W 7533 02509 0066 +125 +108 034057 058 037 002 00
000600 1729N 08521W 7526 02521 0065 +132 +092 037056 058 034 000 00
000630 1729N 08523W 7523 02526 0068 +134 +084 035048 051 034 001 00
000700 1729N 08526W 7492 02563 0074 +127 +087 028049 051 034 001 00

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The model swapping continues. At 12Z, the HWRF hit South Florida and the GFDL did a loop in the NW Caribbean. Now at 18Z, the HWRF does a loop in the NW Caribbean and the GFDL hits South Florida

http://img802.imageshack.us/img802/9093/storm18.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I think there is such a fine line between the two solutions based on track over land and strength that a small difference causes very different end results at 60 hrs plus.

[tolakram]

Live 25 frame IR loop, rapid scan

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Looks to be struggling with something, perhaps increasing shear? Eye closing up.

[wzrgirl1]

Yeah at the end I see like a v almost like some dry air has been entrained

[tobol.7uno]

[cycloneye]

Or is some dry air from Yucatan being entrained,or is an EWRC that is causing that the eye is not seen in sat pics right now.

By the way,the thread has slowed bigtime from comments,compared with the rapid pace it was this afternoon.

[Jevo]

In regards to the 0z model runs..

All the times are EST and approximate.

GFS
*00z = 11:30 PM

GEFS (GFS Ensembles)
*00z = 12:45 AM

NAM
*00z = 9:30 PM

UKMET
*00z = 2:00 AM

Canadian GGEM
*00z = 2:00 AM

Canadian GGEM Ensembles
*00z = 4:45 AM

ECMWF
*00z = 3:20 AM

NOGAPS
*00z = 2:00 AM

[Macrocane]

Hey, is RECON still out there? I can post observations for one hour or so, but I'm not sure if the mission is over.

[cycloneye]

Hey, is RECON still out there? I can post observations for one hour or so, but I'm not sure if the mission is over.

NOAA plane is still there. Just made another pass thru eye.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260107
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 31 20111026
005730 1724N 08437W 7518 02223 9645 +225 +120 136003 007 020 000 03
005800 1726N 08436W 7519 02229 9657 +220 +106 108011 015 026 000 00
005830 1727N 08435W 7507 02250 9669 +214 +111 121026 033 055 003 00
005900 1729N 08434W 7505 02271 9705 +193 +124 115045 052 070 005 00
005930 1731N 08433W 7496 02314 9767 +157 +150 117068 078 079 011 03
010000 1732N 08432W 7508 02336 9821 +143 +143 121089 093 077 008 00
010030 1734N 08431W 7503 02377 9857 +146 +125 122093 095 076 007 00
010100 1735N 08429W 7489 02417 9889 +142 +118 122087 091 072 008 00
010130 1736N 08428W 7506 02421 9916 +138 +125 124083 084 069 007 00
010200 1737N 08427W 7505 02440 9940 +136 +138 125079 080 065 013 00
010230 1739N 08425W 7499 02463 9967 +123 //// 116076 078 063 015 01
010300 1740N 08424W 7510 02460 9982 +120 //// 114074 077 053 035 01
010330 1741N 08423W 7489 02500 0004 +115 //// 118072 074 057 021 01
010400 1743N 08421W 7473 02526 0016 +112 //// 110072 073 056 017 05
010430 1744N 08420W 7486 02516 0020 +114 //// 111071 072 050 011 01
010500 1746N 08419W 7524 02480 0027 +119 +120 115069 070 048 010 00
010530 1748N 08418W 7545 02462 0033 +122 +121 117068 069 045 008 00
010600 1749N 08417W 7531 02487 0039 +124 +119 118068 069 045 007 00
010630 1751N 08416W 7516 02509 0048 +120 +123 119064 065 046 007 00
010700 1753N 08415W 7513 02515 0049 +122 +124 121059 062 045 007 00

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect South Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane.

[fci]

Or is some dry air from Yucatan being entrained,or is an EWRC that is causing that the eye is not seen in sat pics right now.

By the way,the thread has slowed bigtime from comments,compared with the rapid pace it was this afternoon.

I suspect it is dry air bring brought in.
I was going to mention my surprise at how quiet this thread has been but it is near the end of the season and I guess people are worn out and it is only a US issue for South Florida.
Plus, the last person who mentioned the activity in the thread was chastised by a Mod!!

[tobol.7uno]

[caneseddy]

Or is some dry air from Yucatan being entrained,or is an EWRC that is causing that the eye is not seen in sat pics right now.

By the way,the thread has slowed bigtime from comments,compared with the rapid pace it was this afternoon.

I suspect it is dry air bring brought in.
I was going to mention my surprise at how quiet this thread has been but it is near the end of the season and I guess people are worn out and it is only a US issue for South Florida.
Plus, the last person who mentioned the activity in the thread was chastised by a Mod!!

This is MWatkins's last tweets

watkinstrack Michael Watkins
#Rina is deepening. Recon reports pressure down to 966 MB and very cold cloud tops developing in CDO.
1 hour ago

watkinstrack Michael Watkins
@hurricanetrack Pressure is down 4mb in the last 4 hours, it's probably not dry air. Very cold convective bursts lately, good outflow still

watkinstrack Michael Watkins
@hurricanetrack Could be an ERC, which could expand windfield too. That eye has been intact, more or less, for more than 24 hours.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KWBC 260117
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 32 20111026
010730 1755N 08414W 7509 02526 0057 +121 +118 119062 063 044 001 00
010800 1756N 08413W 7528 02508 0063 +120 +118 121059 059 043 001 00
010830 1758N 08412W 7524 02516 0072 +115 +117 124057 058 040 003 00
010900 1800N 08411W 7522 02524 0077 +117 +117 121055 056 040 004 00
010930 1801N 08410W 7523 02525 0078 +118 +116 121054 054 040 003 00
011000 1803N 08409W 7522 02529 0077 +122 +109 120053 053 040 002 00
011030 1805N 08408W 7516 02539 0079 +123 +107 121051 052 036 005 00
011100 1807N 08407W 7512 02544 0089 +115 +108 124051 052 039 007 00
011130 1808N 08406W 7495 02568 0095 +110 //// 112047 050 039 011 01
011200 1810N 08405W 7507 02559 0095 +115 +119 109050 050 037 006 00
011230 1812N 08404W 7508 02558 0096 +119 +117 110051 051 037 003 00
011300 1814N 08403W 7479 02594 0100 +116 +113 109050 051 036 005 00
011330 1816N 08402W 7475 02600 0093 +124 +111 107048 050 040 006 00
011400 1817N 08400W 7457 02615 0088 +117 //// 105042 044 056 020 05
011430 1819N 08359W 7451 02620 0098 +111 +113 100056 060 053 021 03
011500 1820N 08358W 7517 02552 0103 +116 +112 102052 052 038 008 00
011530 1822N 08357W 7514 02561 0103 +124 +112 103049 050 037 007 00
011600 1824N 08356W 7503 02576 0104 +124 +107 107046 047 037 005 00
011630 1826N 08355W 7517 02561 0109 +121 +104 108044 046 036 004 00
011700 1827N 08354W 7507 02575 0118 +115 +100 105041 042 034 001 00

[tobol.7uno]

[fci]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that Rina will affect South Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane.

Yes, he did at 6:40 this evening. Pretty bold.

I have it as a cat one when it comes through the Keys and south Florida

[NDG]

This evening's satellite presentation definitely not looking as impressive as earlier this afternoon, maybe the ECMWF is right after all, but too early for me to say so, could just be that it entrained some of the daytime dry air from land, I noticed that coastal areas of Honduras have been reporting dewpoints in the 60s.

[Ptarmigan]

If the storm is supposed to quickly accelerate to the northeast (per some models) from the Yucatan, wouldn't its forward motion help to decrease the effect of shear on the system?
i.e. if the storm is going at 35 to the northeast, and the shear values are 50, isn't the net effect just 15? -not too hard to withstand to stay intact?

it's not just shear. it's super dry air that will be ingested into the core of the cyclone as well.

I would add super bone dry.

http://img848.imageshack.us/img848/3984/wvl.jpg

All that dry air is why the Gulf of Mexico has been quiet despite the warm water.