ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Now could the storm maintaint hurricane status later in the forecast period if it were to skirt or miss the yucatan? Or is the shear just that bad?

[wxman57]

Now could the storm maintaint hurricane status later in the forecast period if it were to skirt or miss the yucatan? Or is the shear just that bad?

See for yourself - 40-60 kts of shear between the Yucatan and Florida right now. Shear will be increasing as the front nears the area on Friday.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

[cycloneye]

Right now a NOAA plane is flying towards Rina.

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 26/0000Z
B. NOAA2 0518A RINA
C. 25/2000Z
D. 17.8N 84.8W
E. 25/2230Z TO 26/0200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[eastcoastFL]

thanks 57. So this puppy is doomed.

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KNHC 252116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 25/20:22:30Z
B. 17 deg 22 min N
084 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2853 m
D. 76 kt
E. 169 deg 11 nm
F. 259 deg 89 kt
G. 166 deg 10 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 9 C / 3050 m
J. 15 C / 3043 m
K. 5 C / NA
L. SMALL OPENING S
M. C13
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0418A RINA OB 18
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 106 KT N QUAD 20:25:50Z
SOME CLOUDS IN EYE. OCNL MDT TURBC N EYEWALL OUTBOUND
;

[Bocadude85]

Now could the storm maintaint hurricane status later in the forecast period if it were to skirt or miss the yucatan? Or is the shear just that bad?

See for yourself - 40-60 kts of shear between the Yucatan and Florida right now. Shear will be increasing as the front nears the area on Friday.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

So there is no way this could make it to South Florida as anything tropical? Leaving for Hawaii out of Miami on Saturday

[HenkL]

pressure 970 by dropsonde in eye:

000
UZNT13 KNHC 252118
XXAA 75207 99174 70843 04574 99970 27010 10511 00768 ///// /////
92424 24203 09508 85164 20603 13005 70829 14458 10506 88999 77999
31313 09608 82022
61616 AF306 0418A RINA OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1738N08434W 2027 MBL WND 10009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
505 970697 WL150 10510 084 REL 1737N08433W 202236 SPG 1737N08434W
202621 =
XXBB 75208 99174 70843 04574 00970 27010 11850 20603 22742 15407
33697 14059
21212 00970 10511 11881 12009 22850 13005 33697 10508
31313 09608 82022
61616 AF306 0418A RINA OB 19
62626 EYE SPL 1738N08434W 2027 MBL WND 10009 AEV 20802 DLM WND 12
505 970697 WL150 10510 084 REL 1737N08433W 202236 SPG 1737N08434W
202621 =
;

[eastcoastFL]

Maybe a weak ts. that would still kill your travel plans.

[WeatherGuesser]

thanks 57. So this puppy is doomed.

Hasn't this season taught us not to think that way so far out?

[Shuriken]

This track is a storm surge disaster for Havana.

[eastcoastFL]

thanks 57. So this puppy is doomed.

Hasn't this season taught us not to think that way so far out?

Yes but still you cant argue with that shear.

[HenkL]

New plane en route. NW of Cuba now.

000
URNT15 KWBC 252117
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 08 20111025
210730 2356N 08427W 5947 04509 0104 +029 -359 125006 006 025 001 00
210800 2354N 08428W 5947 04508 0107 +028 -365 123006 006 026 000 00
210830 2352N 08430W 5947 04507 0106 +028 -369 120006 006 025 000 00
210900 2349N 08431W 5947 04505 0104 +028 -367 115006 006 025 001 00
210930 2347N 08432W 5948 04505 0105 +028 -370 114007 007 025 000 00
211000 2345N 08433W 5948 04504 0104 +028 -371 113007 007 024 000 00
211030 2343N 08434W 5947 04505 0104 +028 -372 109007 007 025 000 00
211100 2340N 08435W 5948 04504 0103 +028 -372 106007 007 027 000 00
211130 2338N 08436W 5948 04504 0106 +027 -373 113007 007 026 000 00
211200 2336N 08437W 5949 04501 0106 +026 -373 111007 007 025 000 00
211230 2334N 08438W 5948 04504 0110 +025 -373 111007 007 026 000 00
211300 2331N 08439W 5948 04503 0109 +025 -373 102007 007 025 000 00
211330 2329N 08440W 5948 04503 0106 +026 -374 096006 007 025 000 00
211400 2327N 08441W 5937 04517 0104 +027 -374 089006 006 025 000 00
211430 2324N 08442W 5938 04518 0101 +028 -374 096006 006 025 000 00
211500 2322N 08443W 5940 04512 0096 +030 -374 098006 006 024 000 00
211530 2320N 08444W 5939 04515 0100 +029 -373 104006 006 024 000 00
211600 2318N 08445W 5940 04515 0104 +027 -373 111007 008 026 000 00
211630 2315N 08446W 5939 04515 0105 +026 -373 123008 009 025 000 00
211700 2313N 08448W 5940 04513 0109 +023 -355 132008 008 024 000 00

[xironman]

Looking at the recon VDMs, could she be making the northerly turn soon? Land interaction with the Yucatan has a huge impact on strength and path in the future. Looks like it is coming up soon.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If the storm is supposed to quickly accelerate to the northeast (per some models) from the Yucatan, wouldn't its forward motion help to decrease the effect of shear on the system?
i.e. if the storm is going at 35 to the northeast, and the shear values are 50, isn't the net effect just 15? -not too hard to withstand to stay intact?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This track is a storm surge disaster for Havana.

Storm surge from just a tropical storm isn't that bad, especially if the winds are coming from over land and pushing water away from the coast with their counter clockwise motion.

[eastcoastFL]

And what about when wilma was racing across the state she seemed to strangthen as she was crossing rather than weaken. The first half of the storm was nothing compared to the back half after the eye passed. And local weather was telling us the 2nd half would be a piece of cake.

[psyclone]

If the storm is supposed to quickly accelerate to the northeast (per some models) from the Yucatan, wouldn't its forward motion help to decrease the effect of shear on the system?
i.e. if the storm is going at 35 to the northeast, and the shear values are 50, isn't the net effect just 15? -not too hard to withstand to stay intact?

it's not just shear. it's super dry air that will be ingested into the core of the cyclone as well.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252127
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 09 20111025
211730 2311N 08449W 5938 04515 0112 +018 -136 139007 008 023 000 00
211800 2309N 08451W 5939 04513 0113 +016 -088 131008 008 025 000 00
211830 2307N 08453W 5939 04513 0117 +015 -121 123008 008 025 000 00
211900 2305N 08454W 5939 04515 0124 +012 -123 134007 007 025 000 00
211930 2304N 08456W 5940 04513 0127 +011 -134 142005 005 024 000 00
212000 2302N 08458W 5940 04515 0132 +009 -172 160005 005 025 000 00
212030 2300N 08500W 5939 04513 0131 +008 -126 166006 006 025 000 00
212100 2258N 08502W 5940 04512 0128 +009 -132 153005 005 024 000 00
212130 2256N 08503W 5940 04511 0127 +009 -113 154004 005 025 000 00
212200 2254N 08505W 5940 04512 0126 +008 -081 164005 005 025 000 00
212230 2252N 08507W 5940 04510 0125 +008 -069 166005 006 024 000 00
212300 2251N 08509W 5941 04510 0129 +005 -057 169005 005 023 000 00
212330 2249N 08511W 5941 04512 0128 +005 -031 173005 005 025 000 00
212400 2247N 08512W 5941 04513 0130 +005 -029 170005 006 024 000 00
212430 2245N 08514W 5941 04513 0132 +003 -025 167005 005 025 000 00
212500 2243N 08516W 5942 04511 0131 +004 -023 166005 005 025 001 00
212530 2241N 08518W 5942 04510 0135 +001 -017 171004 004 026 000 00
212600 2239N 08519W 5941 04512 0138 -001 -011 175003 003 026 000 00
212630 2237N 08521W 5942 04511 0138 -001 -012 160002 003 026 000 00
212700 2235N 08523W 5942 04511 0139 -001 -009 135002 002 027 000 00

[eastcoastFL]

westwind must have fell back asleep

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If the storm is supposed to quickly accelerate to the northeast (per some models) from the Yucatan, wouldn't its forward motion help to decrease the effect of shear on the system?
i.e. if the storm is going at 35 to the northeast, and the shear values are 50, isn't the net effect just 15? -not too hard to withstand to stay intact?

it's not just shear. it's super dry air that will be ingested into the core of the cyclone as well.

If she's moving quickly, it will take a while for that wrapped dry air to knock down the windfield. She will probably get blown apart, but at what point will her winds decrease for those on the ground? that will be the question.