ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

and appears well on its way to attaining major cat 3 status later this evening...

[CronkPSU]

Cantore tweeted that the euro has no handle on this thing even after several runs so he is buying into the weakened rina/frontal ridge into so florida scenario

[DukeDevil91]

Looks like there is a nice flare up of cold cloud tops near the west/southwestern eye wall in recent images. Dorvak is looking very impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-bd.html

[cycloneye]

At 5 PM north of Cuba.

[Vortex]

At 5 PM north of Cuba.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/ ... L_sm.gifmg]

The trend may continue closer to the keys at 11pm and possibly sfl at 5am depending upon the guidance tonight...

[DukeDevil91]

Shortwave shows a very well defined pin-hole eye.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[eastcoastFL]

yup. a tad bit closer to florida. UH OH

[WYNweather]

Cantore tweeted that the euro has no handle on this thing even after several runs so he is buying into the weakened rina/frontal ridge into so florida scenario

Anybody know his travel agent? May give us a clue where it will be.

[eastcoastFL]

Rina needs to slow down or speed up. its lookin like halloween is when we will get whatever we are going to get.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252050
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 36 20111025
204030 1822N 08421W 6974 03166 0115 +065 +029 094050 051 035 007 00
204100 1824N 08421W 6964 03178 0111 +069 +029 092046 047 032 012 00
204130 1825N 08421W 6950 03189 0128 +053 +035 090045 048 034 018 00
204200 1827N 08421W 6966 03174 0159 +030 //// 076053 059 032 021 01
204230 1829N 08421W 6966 03170 0158 +029 +026 068054 056 034 017 00
204300 1830N 08421W 6961 03181 0117 +065 +025 070052 053 032 005 00
204330 1832N 08421W 6967 03177 0112 +071 +024 074052 053 032 004 00
204400 1833N 08421W 6968 03178 0109 +075 +023 075048 049 031 004 00
204430 1835N 08421W 6966 03182 0110 +075 +023 077049 052 032 004 00
204500 1837N 08421W 6966 03182 0109 +076 +023 082054 056 035 012 00
204530 1838N 08421W 6958 03203 0142 +057 +031 078043 050 044 018 03
204600 1840N 08421W 7016 03112 0139 +049 +032 062045 046 041 015 00
204630 1842N 08421W 6958 03191 0132 +057 +022 062043 044 039 010 00
204700 1843N 08421W 6968 03181 0112 +075 +021 063041 041 033 006 00
204730 1845N 08421W 6971 03177 0106 +081 +020 068043 043 029 002 00
204800 1846N 08421W 6962 03191 0103 +085 +019 073040 044 029 001 00
204830 1848N 08421W 6972 03181 0101 +087 +019 073038 042 028 000 00
204900 1850N 08421W 6967 03186 0099 +089 +019 080035 037 028 000 00
204930 1852N 08421W 6964 03191 0099 +089 +020 086035 036 029 001 00
205000 1854N 08421W 6962 03192 0095 +091 +021 088034 035 031 001 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 84.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
* THE HONDURAN BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THURSDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA
HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 95 KT BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 94 KT AND
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 106 KT. THE LATEST CENTRAL
PRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE PLANE WAS 970 MB...FALLING A LITTLE OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A REGION OF LOW WIND SHEAR.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK AT 100 KT FROM 12 TO 48
HOURS...A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT
TIME...RINA WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE
SHIPS AND LGEM. HOWEVER...IF RINA MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THAN EXPECTED...IT COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST
IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE LEFT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 270/04. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS RINA
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THE CYCLONE PASSES BY
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DEVELOPS IN THE
GUIDANCE. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSELY LINKED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ON ONE EXTREME...THE ECMWF WEAKENS RINA AND
DISSIPATES IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AFTER 72 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS AND HWRF TAKE A STRONGER CYCLONE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT A SLOW MOTION IS SHOWN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS VERY LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 17.4N 84.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.5N 85.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.3N 86.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 19.4N 86.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 20.8N 86.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 23.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[eastcoastFL]

Cantore tweeted that the euro has no handle on this thing even after several runs so he is buying into the weakened rina/frontal ridge into so florida scenario

Anybody know his travel agent? May give us a clue where it will be.

He always seems to end up where the storm was "supposed" to be. Anyone remember how angry he seemed during Rita when he was standing out in a weak drizzle.

[cycloneye]

The most important part of 5 PM discussion.

SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DEVELOPS IN THE
GUIDANCE. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSELY LINKED LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ON ONE EXTREME...THE ECMWF WEAKENS RINA AND
DISSIPATES IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AFTER 72 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFS AND HWRF TAKE A STRONGER CYCLONE QUICKLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT A SLOW MOTION IS SHOWN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS VERY LOW.

[Jevo]

Alot going on tonight folks. First the advisory within the hour then some very important models later tonight with digested info for G-IV. Interesting nights ahead before we shut her down for the season....

I'll be glad to see that data go into the 00Z models. I'm not extremely confident in my track beyond 60-72 hrs.

NHC @ 5PM

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY LOW.

Looks like you're not the only one 57... Should be a fun night watcing the 0z come in.. I haven't anticipated a model run since Irene.

[wxman57]

Yikes! That NHC track almost exactly matches my track. It would bring 30-40 mph easterly wind through the Keys on Saturday.

[westwind]

Plane ascending mission over.
000
URNT15 KNHC 252100
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 37 20111025
205030 1856N 08421W 6962 03191 0091 +093 +020 098035 035 030 001 00
205100 1858N 08421W 6978 03170 0084 +098 +018 101035 036 030 002 00
205130 1900N 08420W 6962 03189 0087 +097 +019 105033 034 029 002 00
205200 1902N 08420W 6963 03187 0090 +094 +020 102032 032 030 000 00
205230 1905N 08420W 6971 03180 0094 +091 +021 102030 031 030 000 00
205300 1907N 08420W 6968 03183 0095 +090 +021 101031 032 031 000 00
205330 1909N 08420W 6968 03182 0093 +092 +020 100031 031 030 000 00
205400 1911N 08420W 6971 03182 0087 +097 +019 099031 031 029 000 00
205430 1913N 08420W 6963 03190 0083 +100 +015 103031 032 028 000 03
205500 1916N 08421W 6963 03191 0083 +100 +016 098030 031 025 001 03
205530 1917N 08423W 6967 03183 0084 +100 +014 097031 031 027 000 00
205600 1919N 08424W 6962 03187 0082 +098 +014 100031 031 027 000 00
205630 1921N 08426W 6961 03182 0083 +095 +016 099031 033 026 001 00
205700 1923N 08428W 6969 03175 0074 +092 +018 095030 030 027 000 00
205730 1924N 08430W 6688 03498 0063 +072 +009 102031 033 025 000 00
205800 1926N 08432W 6450 03801 0068 +055 +002 107033 034 026 001 00
205830 1928N 08434W 6155 04189 0048 +046 -009 110030 031 025 000 00
205900 1929N 08436W 5868 04574 0049 +019 -014 105028 029 /// /// 03
205930 1931N 08437W 5619 04929 0063 -007 -022 102028 029 023 000 03
210000 1932N 08439W 5453 05165 0239 -032 //// 104027 029 023 000 05
$$
;

[CronkPSU]

I know there is discrepancies over the track but the forecast remains basically the same...weak to moderate tropical storm by that point?

[wxman57]

I know there is discrepancies over the track but the forecast remains basically the same...weak to moderate tropical storm by that point?

I really don't think it will still be a tropical storm on Sunday.

[eastcoastFL]

I know there is discrepancies over the track but the forecast remains basically the same...weak to moderate tropical storm by that point?

I really don't think it will still be a tropical storm on Sunday.

because of the shear forecast?

[wxman57]

I know there is discrepancies over the track but the forecast remains basically the same...weak to moderate tropical storm by that point?

I really don't think it will still be a tropical storm on Sunday.

because of the shear forecast?

Combination of strong shear and the influx of cool, dry air from behind the front.