ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

Alot going on tonight folks. First the advisory within the hour then some very important models later tonight with digested info for G-IV. Interesting nights ahead before we shut her down for the season....

[HenkL]

G-IV is flying. I've seen they dropped 4 sondes so far, between Rina and Cuba.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252000
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 31 20111025
195030 1618N 08452W 6965 03183 0129 +060 +038 308044 044 050 014 00
195100 1617N 08450W 6965 03184 0130 +059 +039 306048 051 045 014 00
195130 1616N 08448W 6969 03181 0116 +072 +039 310039 043 046 006 00
195200 1615N 08446W 6967 03182 0098 +085 +038 313031 032 044 001 03
195230 1614N 08444W 6964 03187 0107 +078 +039 312031 033 044 003 00
195300 1613N 08442W 6963 03187 0120 +068 +040 303035 036 045 007 00
195330 1612N 08440W 6972 03178 0126 +063 +040 293040 043 046 009 00
195400 1611N 08438W 6969 03183 0127 +065 +041 291040 042 045 006 00
195430 1610N 08436W 6968 03184 0127 +065 +041 296037 038 046 004 00
195500 1609N 08434W 6967 03188 0125 +068 +040 296038 039 045 003 00
195530 1609N 08433W 6969 03189 0130 +066 +041 290031 036 044 003 00
195600 1608N 08431W 6964 03191 0110 +082 +040 292024 026 044 002 00
195630 1607N 08429W 6969 03187 0115 +078 +041 278029 031 045 002 00
195700 1606N 08427W 6969 03190 0134 +064 +041 286026 028 046 004 00
195730 1605N 08425W 6967 03193 0128 +071 +041 282020 020 045 004 00
195800 1604N 08423W 6968 03189 0140 +060 +040 295020 021 044 009 00
195830 1603N 08421W 6972 03188 0135 +067 +040 273020 022 043 008 00
195900 1603N 08420W 6967 03195 0117 +081 +039 276019 019 042 002 03
195930 1603N 08418W 6965 03189 0113 +076 +042 274017 017 /// /// 03
200000 1604N 08417W 6969 03184 0110 +078 +041 279015 015 040 002 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

Just curious as to why Rina wouldn't turn more to the ENE or NE and "ride the front" at a faster and faster forward speed out to sea (either south of or over Florida). Is the idea that some models don't believe the storm will be far enough north by the point the front moves into town to "scoop" her up? Or is it that they think she'll just get shredded apart, with the moisture maybe drawn into the front and possibly a low level swirl left behind? It seems to me that, yes, there are going to be strong winds from the SW to NE or W to E dipping into the Gulf in a few days. But why wouldn't those just scoop up Rina and send her flying off to the ENE or NE as an intact system?

I wouldn't completely discount the GFS's solution, though that's not my forecast. It may be partially correct, though. Parts of Rina may well get picked up and accelerated up to the northeast on Friday. By "parts", I mean moisture as Rina runs into a wall of shear in the southeastern Gulf. I'm beginning to think Rina may not be around past around noon Saturday due to the strong shear forecast in its path.

[wxman57]

Alot going on tonight folks. First the advisory within the hour then some very important models later tonight with digested info for G-IV. Interesting nights ahead before we shut her down for the season....

I'll be glad to see that data go into the 00Z models. I'm not extremely confident in my track beyond 60-72 hrs.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252010
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 32 20111025
200030 1606N 08417W 6967 03185 0108 +079 +041 278019 019 041 001 00
200100 1608N 08417W 6968 03182 0125 +064 +041 275019 021 041 006 00
200130 1609N 08417W 6967 03184 0127 +061 +041 278023 027 041 004 00
200200 1611N 08417W 6967 03163 0083 +081 +038 289027 029 040 001 00
200230 1613N 08417W 6967 03157 0073 +082 +036 286029 030 041 000 03
200300 1615N 08417W 6968 03151 0063 +086 +036 291028 029 042 000 03
200330 1616N 08417W 6963 03171 0081 +083 +035 289029 029 043 001 00
200400 1618N 08417W 6967 03184 0104 +083 +034 289029 030 041 000 00
200430 1620N 08417W 6972 03181 0108 +081 +034 289030 031 044 000 03
200500 1621N 08417W 6968 03184 0104 +081 +035 292032 033 043 001 00
200530 1623N 08417W 6967 03181 0093 +088 +036 295034 035 042 001 03
200600 1625N 08417W 6968 03174 0080 +094 +033 295033 034 043 001 00
200630 1626N 08417W 6964 03179 0091 +084 +034 291032 032 042 001 00
200700 1628N 08417W 6969 03168 0085 +086 +034 290032 032 044 001 00
200730 1630N 08417W 6969 03171 0085 +085 +032 292035 037 043 001 00
200800 1631N 08417W 6966 03171 0087 +081 +033 293038 039 042 000 00
200830 1633N 08417W 6966 03166 0087 +078 +034 288037 039 042 000 00
200900 1635N 08417W 6969 03161 0086 +078 +036 286034 036 042 000 03
200930 1636N 08417W 6969 03157 0093 +069 +040 283033 035 043 001 03
201000 1638N 08417W 6967 03156 0106 +058 +042 276031 032 044 002 00
$$
;

[fci]

Alot going on tonight folks. First the advisory within the hour then some very important models later tonight with digested info for G-IV. Interesting nights ahead before we shut her down for the season....

I'll be glad to see that data go into the 00Z models. I'm not extremely confident in my track beyond 60-72 hrs.

Wow, not often we see you "backin' and fillin'".
Very interesting evening indeed, seeing what how this evolves.

[Vortex]

Alot going on tonight folks. First the advisory within the hour then some very important models later tonight with digested info for G-IV. Interesting nights ahead before we shut her down for the season....

I'll be glad to see that data go into the 00Z models. I'm not extremely confident in my track beyond 60-72 hrs.

57,

I dont think the best of the best are very confident beyond 60

[WeatherEmperor]

Okay so the 5pm advisory should come out within the next 30 minutes or so. What changes do you think we will see? Will they shift it closer to South Florida or will they keep it closer to Cuba?

[Vortex]

Okay so the 5pm advisory should come out within the next 30 minutes or so. What changes do you think we will see? Will they shift it closer to South Florida or will they keep it closer to Cuba?

They may wait for the 00z model suite before making any significant changes. The 5pm package may be more of an update..11pm couldnt be somewhat different and certainly the 5am has the potential to change with the new data...

[eastcoastFL]

Id say if they changed it at all it would be a bit closer to florida. Just based on the forecast slowdowna nd current position.

[wxman57]

Okay so the 5pm advisory should come out within the next 30 minutes or so. What changes do you think we will see? Will they shift it closer to South Florida or will they keep it closer to Cuba?

The 18Z OFCI track is east and south of the previous track, taking it into southern Cuba (just NW of the Isle of Youth on Sunday PM). That's an unofficial NHC track which often makes its way into the model runs. The NHC won't necessarily use that track, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's what they do in a few minutes.

[Vortex]

Per latest vis a classic "doughnut" core may be trying to form...If this completes itself could see RI later this evening. Something to keep an eye on..

[wxman57]

Per latest vis a classic "doughnut" core may be trying to form...If this completes itself could see RI later this evening. Something to keep an eye on..

Keep an eye on the eye?

[cycloneye]

After latest third pass,it got these winds that are reliable.(96kts at flight level)

202700 1737N 08422W 6979 03004 9940 +063 +060 086091 096 063 053 00
202730 1738N 08422W 6958 03051 9959 +065 +059 086093 096 064 044 00

[cycloneye]

Third pass

96kts at flight level

URNT15 KNHC 252030
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 34 20111025
202030 1715N 08417W 6972 02933 9758 +141 +047 251054 064 048 002 03
202100 1717N 08418W 6976 02903 9726 +149 +045 251036 042 034 000 00
202130 1719N 08418W 6962 02908 9720 +141 +047 245020 024 025 001 00
202200 1720N 08419W 6969 02890 9710 +143 +046 232009 013 011 001 03
202230 1722N 08420W 6964 02897 9711 +140 +048 129004 008 018 000 00
202300 1723N 08421W 6976 02879 9707 +142 +051 055010 013 019 001 00
202330 1725N 08422W 6955 02907 9701 +148 +052 057021 025 025 003 03
202400 1727N 08422W 6973 02890 9708 +147 +054 072030 031 038 002 00
202430 1728N 08422W 6962 02910 9725 +138 +057 082042 048 072 008 03
202500 1730N 08422W 6973 02911 9762 +116 +063 087058 068 094 024 00
202530 1732N 08422W 6950 02967 9833 +078 +072 088090 104 091 035 03
202600 1734N 08422W 6908 03055 9901 +061 //// 081095 105 076 062 05
202630 1735N 08422W 6981 02993 9928 +062 //// 085093 098 071 053 01
202700 1737N 08422W 6979 03004 9940 +063 +060 086091 096 063 053 00
202730 1738N 08422W 6958 03051 9959 +065 +059 086093 096 064 044 00
202800 1740N 08422W 6990 03020 9979 +059 +057 090082 083 063 032 00
202830 1741N 08422W 6966 03066 9993 +060 +055 091085 087 063 024 00
202900 1743N 08422W 6970 03075 0007 +059 +054 091078 079 063 017 00
202930 1745N 08422W 6968 03081 0022 +056 +051 090076 079 060 012 00
203000 1746N 08422W 6968 03090 0042 +049 +047 087078 079 058 011 00

[westwind]

missed ob
000
URNT15 KNHC 252020
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 33 20111025
201030 1640N 08417W 6969 03154 0087 +070 +041 280043 045 043 004 00
201100 1641N 08417W 6967 03154 0073 +078 +039 277041 042 044 002 00
201130 1643N 08417W 6973 03143 0076 +071 +041 282048 049 045 005 00
201200 1645N 08417W 6971 03139 0075 +069 +041 280044 045 045 006 00
201230 1646N 08417W 6963 03143 0072 +068 +040 279048 050 046 005 00
201300 1648N 08417W 6967 03137 0055 +078 +038 272048 050 045 002 00
201330 1650N 08417W 6966 03136 0076 +060 +041 275049 051 047 009 00
201400 1652N 08417W 6970 03127 0053 +072 +041 274052 054 048 007 00
201430 1653N 08417W 6966 03126 0038 +081 +038 267056 058 049 003 00
201500 1655N 08417W 6979 03105 0023 +088 +037 260058 060 048 004 00
201530 1657N 08417W 6969 03111 0021 +083 +040 262058 059 053 005 00
201600 1659N 08417W 6972 03100 0010 +085 +041 267062 063 053 008 00
201630 1700N 08417W 6966 03098 0002 +084 +039 262068 069 052 009 00
201700 1702N 08417W 6969 03088 0003 +078 +039 260072 073 057 010 00
201730 1704N 08417W 6969 03078 9982 +085 +040 254073 074 064 009 00
201800 1706N 08417W 6966 03064 9957 +090 +039 250079 081 067 006 00
201830 1708N 08417W 6970 03042 9931 +092 +042 249081 085 071 003 00
201900 1710N 08417W 6959 03030 9864 +128 +040 251079 080 076 000 03
201930 1712N 08417W 6970 02990 9816 +144 +036 259086 089 076 000 03
202000 1713N 08417W 6975 02952 9782 +142 +042 256084 089 067 002 03
$$
;

[westwind]

After latest third pass,it got these winds that are reliable.(96kts at flight level)

202700 1737N 08422W 6979 03004 9940 +063 +060 086091 096 063 053 00
202730 1738N 08422W 6958 03051 9959 +065 +059 086093 096 064 044 00

Also 94kts SMFR
202500 1730N 08422W 6973 02911 9762 +116 +063 087058 068 094 024 00

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252040
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 35 20111025
203030 1748N 08422W 6965 03104 0042 +054 +045 085075 077 058 013 00
203100 1749N 08422W 6965 03108 0055 +049 +042 085072 072 058 014 00
203130 1749N 08422W 6965 03108 0056 +050 +043 088071 072 057 014 00
203200 1753N 08422W 6969 03114 0066 +050 +042 087071 075 056 013 00
203230 1754N 08421W 6969 03115 0079 +045 +039 083068 070 054 009 00
203300 1756N 08421W 6964 03130 0075 +053 +038 087068 069 052 005 00
203330 1758N 08421W 6970 03126 0078 +054 +038 089068 068 049 005 00
203400 1759N 08421W 6967 03135 0078 +057 +037 090070 073 049 004 00
203430 1801N 08421W 6965 03142 0081 +058 +034 086069 070 048 004 00
203500 1803N 08421W 6968 03143 0085 +061 +032 089069 069 047 003 00
203530 1804N 08421W 6963 03152 0086 +064 +031 093068 069 044 004 00
203600 1806N 08421W 6968 03149 0087 +065 +030 094067 068 044 004 00
203630 1808N 08421W 6966 03157 0087 +070 +029 095065 065 042 004 00
203700 1809N 08421W 6967 03157 0083 +075 +029 096063 064 041 003 00
203730 1811N 08421W 6970 03157 0088 +075 +028 097062 062 040 002 00
203800 1813N 08421W 6962 03170 0090 +074 +028 095058 058 037 001 00
203830 1815N 08421W 6970 03161 0096 +073 +028 093057 058 036 001 00
203900 1817N 08421W 6966 03171 0103 +070 +029 096056 056 037 001 00
203930 1818N 08421W 6966 03172 0105 +070 +029 097054 055 036 003 00
204000 1820N 08421W 6970 03167 0107 +070 +030 096052 053 035 005 00
$$
;

[MWatkins]

That SMRF/flight data is probably enough to bring the intensity to 110 MPH/95 knots at the surface.