ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

yup, thats what i figured. But when the storms are rolling like Rina. I always looked there to see whats up. But its much better to have all the pros here anyway. Especially since I am not cool enough to post in that forum.

[NDG]

Funny how yesterday's GFS runs were a big praise and todays' runs are being dismissed by the same people.

[xironman]

At first I thought it had to be land interaction for the Euro, but it clearly falls apart before landfall.

[adam0983]

Tonight will be a key night to see what the future track and intensity will be with Rina. I expect major changes in the track at 5pm.

[westwind]

pass from NE to SW
000
URNT15 KNHC 251930
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 28 20111025
192030 1729N 08410W 6954 02979 9820 +108 +047 124086 091 085 011 00
192100 1728N 08411W 6967 02936 9784 +116 +049 127060 068 083 006 00
192130 1727N 08412W 6967 02914 9759 +119 +048 122042 048 074 003 03
192200 1725N 08413W 6971 02902 9732 +134 +046 123030 034 064 003 00
192230 1723N 08414W 6964 02901 9723 +133 +047 113018 021 045 002 00
192300 1722N 08415W 6967 02891 9721 +131 +049 117010 012 024 000 00
192330 1720N 08416W 6974 02884 9711 +139 +050 163003 008 018 000 03
192400 1719N 08417W 6963 02900 9710 +143 +053 296012 016 022 001 00
192430 1717N 08418W 6970 02897 9705 +154 +052 313026 030 028 000 00
192500 1716N 08419W 6970 02916 9722 +155 +052 313035 039 038 001 03
192530 1715N 08421W 6966 02933 9750 +143 +055 310047 051 052 002 00
192600 1714N 08422W 6973 02944 9768 +145 +057 310062 064 061 001 03
192630 1713N 08423W 6966 02974 9801 +135 +055 309067 068 077 003 03
192700 1711N 08424W 6972 02985 9849 +113 +059 303067 068 076 007 00
192730 1710N 08426W 6964 03013 9887 +098 +060 303068 071 076 011 00
192800 1709N 08427W 6974 03021 9927 +082 +061 307067 071 075 011 00
192830 1708N 08428W 6952 03063 9921 +101 +058 308067 069 069 016 00
192900 1707N 08429W 6973 03053 9949 +094 +056 308061 063 063 012 00
192930 1706N 08430W 6971 03071 9965 +092 +054 302062 065 063 008 00
193000 1704N 08432W 6967 03083 9968 +097 +053 308066 069 063 009 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Rina seems to be holding her own right now, not strengthening any further, at least for the moment, based on the last recon report.

[ROCK]

got to say this is the best look of a Cat 2 soon to be major we have seen all season...not that we had much more to look at than Irene and a bunch of TS's......

nice sat presentation....she will go cat 3....maybe high end 3 before peaking IMO....look out Cancun...

[Jevo]

Off topic questions. I noticed that the pros arent posting many forecasts in the tropical analysis forum this season, why is that?

Because the cool people and action are in the Talkin Tropics forum!

Hahah i was TalkinTropics before it was cool.. just see the sig

Should be an interesting weekend.. Im starting to think the Fort Lauderdale Boat Show may not be a good idea

... In other news... It's about time we make it official for Rina, I had put the stamp up for the season..

[Weatherboy1]

Just curious as to why Rina wouldn't turn more to the ENE or NE and "ride the front" at a faster and faster forward speed out to sea (either south of or over Florida). Is the idea that some models don't believe the storm will be far enough north by the point the front moves into town to "scoop" her up? Or is it that they think she'll just get shredded apart, with the moisture maybe drawn into the front and possibly a low level swirl left behind? It seems to me that, yes, there are going to be strong winds from the SW to NE or W to E dipping into the Gulf in a few days. But why wouldn't those just scoop up Rina and send her flying off to the ENE or NE as an intact system?

[xironman]

got to say this is the best look of a Cat 2 soon to be major we have seen all season...not that we had much more to look at than Irene and a bunch of TS's......

nice sat presentation....she will go cat 3....maybe high end 3 before peaking IMO....look out Cancun...

Hard to believe we have had three majors Irene, Katia, Ophelia. If Rina makes it I have one more to go to make my call.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251940
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 29 20111025
193030 1703N 08433W 6979 03082 9999 +084 +051 300061 064 063 009 00
193100 1702N 08434W 6970 03100 0025 +069 +046 303064 065 059 011 00
193130 1701N 08435W 6966 03106 0006 +087 +043 309066 067 058 010 00
193200 1700N 08436W 6970 03111 0012 +091 +041 308063 064 055 007 00
193230 1659N 08438W 6970 03114 0020 +087 +040 310063 063 049 004 00
193300 1657N 08439W 6970 03120 0031 +082 +038 312061 062 046 002 00
193330 1656N 08440W 6964 03125 0036 +079 +038 320063 063 042 001 00
193400 1655N 08441W 6967 03122 0044 +075 +039 326062 063 042 001 00
193430 1654N 08443W 6971 03123 0052 +072 +039 328058 061 043 002 00
193500 1652N 08444W 6967 03130 0053 +072 +039 331056 058 043 002 00
193530 1651N 08446W 6966 03133 0067 +066 +043 334050 054 040 006 00
193600 1650N 08447W 6962 03151 0073 +071 +041 336054 055 038 004 00
193630 1648N 08448W 6966 03151 0082 +070 +038 339054 055 037 001 00
193700 1647N 08450W 6970 03156 0088 +073 +038 337050 054 035 001 00
193730 1646N 08451W 6963 03165 0084 +078 +036 343054 055 035 000 00
193800 1644N 08453W 6967 03164 0087 +078 +036 343053 055 035 001 00
193830 1643N 08454W 6970 03165 0095 +075 +036 344049 049 034 000 00
193900 1642N 08456W 6966 03170 0096 +074 +035 347052 053 034 001 00
193930 1640N 08457W 6970 03167 0094 +078 +034 348051 052 034 000 00
194000 1639N 08458W 6963 03178 0096 +079 +033 347048 050 034 000 03
$$
;

[HenkL]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 251936
XXAA 75197 99173 70843 04574 99972 27410 21505 00753 ///// /////
92440 24204 20007 85180 20403 18507 70847 14458 28511 88999 77999
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF306 0418A RINA OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 1732N08428W 1928 MBL WND 19507 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21
506 971696 WL150 19007 084 REL 1731N08428W 192358 SPG 1733N08427W
192730 =
XXBB 75198 99173 70843 04574 00972 27410 11850 20403 22786 17409
33726 17057 44696 14059
21212 00972 21505 11883 21009 22850 18507 33769 26510 44696 28512
31313 09608 81923
61616 AF306 0418A RINA OB 15
62626 EYE SPL 1732N08428W 1928 MBL WND 19507 AEV 20802 DLM WND 21
506 971696 WL150 19007 084 REL 1731N08428W 192358 SPG 1733N08427W
192730 =
;


dropsonde in eye: 972 hPa

[Jevo]

Is the G-IV up yet.. I could have sworn I saw a mission plan

[Vortex]

Not sure what will be left but TS winds across the keys and SFL seem more likely today as we head into friday night...

[cycloneye]

Decoded second VDM:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 19:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 18L in 2011
Storm Name: Rina (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 19:23:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°20'N 84°16'W (17.3333N 84.2667W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 259 miles (417 km) to the E (93°) from Belize City, Belize.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,853m (9,360ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 85kts (~ 97.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 122° at 91kts (From the ESE at ~ 104.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (34°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.70 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,052m (10,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): SMALL OPENINGS S
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 92kts (~ 105.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 18:00:00Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
LOTS OF CLOUDS IN EYE. SOME TURBC IN EYEWALL OUTBOUND.

[adam0983]

When should the cold front arrive to push Rina out to sea? What if Rina goes faster than the cold front?

[cycloneye]

Is the G-IV up yet.. I could have sworn I saw a mission plan

Is flying now. From yesterdays TCPOD.

GIV WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
RINA DEDARTING 25/1730Z.

[Vortex]

Is the G-IV up yet.. I could have sworn I saw a mission plan

yes, the input into the 00z models will have additional information to digest tonight from the G-IV

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251950
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 30 20111025
194030 1637N 08500W 6967 03174 0109 +070 +034 346046 047 034 000 03
194100 1636N 08501W 6967 03178 0110 +072 +032 345040 042 034 002 00
194130 1635N 08503W 6966 03181 0116 +068 +033 344039 040 037 003 00
194200 1633N 08504W 6963 03188 0118 +068 +035 344039 041 041 007 00
194230 1632N 08506W 6964 03193 0139 +053 +042 340037 038 042 013 00
194300 1631N 08507W 6973 03179 0138 +054 +042 332037 038 039 011 00
194330 1629N 08508W 6962 03194 0138 +056 +041 331036 039 037 010 00
194400 1628N 08510W 6965 03188 0134 +059 +039 329033 036 035 004 00
194430 1627N 08511W 6966 03189 0137 +059 +038 333038 040 035 003 00
194500 1625N 08512W 6963 03191 0137 +060 +040 329041 044 /// /// 03
194530 1623N 08511W 6966 03191 0134 +063 +040 330037 039 /// /// 03
194600 1623N 08510W 6970 03188 0127 +068 +039 327038 039 034 002 03
194630 1624N 08508W 6962 03194 0113 +078 +039 329032 034 /// /// 03
194700 1623N 08506W 6970 03184 0126 +067 +038 325032 034 038 002 00
194730 1623N 08504W 6968 03184 0119 +072 +039 327031 033 037 003 00
194800 1622N 08502W 6969 03184 0116 +073 +039 318028 030 039 006 00
194830 1621N 08500W 6968 03182 0122 +067 +039 322031 032 041 005 00
194900 1620N 08458W 6964 03185 0125 +064 +041 317033 035 040 010 00
194930 1619N 08456W 6973 03173 0126 +063 +039 319039 040 049 017 00
195000 1618N 08454W 6969 03178 0127 +062 +038 312042 043 056 013 00
$$
;

[NDG]

Not sure what will be left but TS winds across the keys and SFL seem more likely today as we head into friday night...

I totally agree with you, at least TS winds looking very likely, IMO.

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