ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[x-y-no]

Jan,why did they put 972 mbs at VDM as lowest,but that set as I pointed out in red was 970 the lowest?

Not sure Luis ... I think they just messed up with this VDM. I expect we'll get a corrected one at some point.

[xironman]

Healthy warm core system.

Code: Select all

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 6°C (43°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,063m (10,049ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251840
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 23 20111025
183030 1650N 08315W 6967 03190 0109 +083 +032 182042 042 037 006 00
183100 1652N 08315W 6966 03189 0106 +085 +032 181043 044 037 007 00
183130 1654N 08315W 6969 03185 0110 +081 +032 181044 045 037 008 00
183200 1656N 08314W 6967 03187 0114 +076 +032 184047 048 037 007 00
183230 1658N 08314W 6967 03184 0103 +083 +032 184049 050 035 007 00
183300 1701N 08313W 6972 03179 0111 +078 +032 185050 051 035 007 00
183330 1703N 08313W 6963 03188 0105 +081 +031 177048 050 035 007 00
183400 1705N 08313W 6967 03183 0100 +084 +030 169046 046 037 008 00
183430 1707N 08312W 6965 03187 0103 +082 +030 163050 053 036 009 00
183500 1709N 08312W 6965 03187 0113 +075 +029 169051 054 036 009 00
183530 1711N 08312W 6968 03183 0111 +076 +030 169049 050 037 006 00
183600 1713N 08311W 6971 03178 0120 +070 +030 167046 046 036 008 00
183630 1715N 08311W 6969 03186 0124 +068 +031 165047 047 036 008 00
183700 1718N 08310W 6963 03190 0121 +070 +030 161047 048 037 008 00
183730 1720N 08310W 6974 03177 0130 +064 +031 163048 048 036 005 00
183800 1722N 08310W 6966 03188 0114 +076 +031 161047 047 035 001 00
183830 1724N 08309W 6965 03188 0107 +082 +030 157046 047 035 000 00
183900 1726N 08309W 6967 03184 0108 +080 +029 155046 047 033 000 00
183930 1728N 08308W 6967 03187 0114 +076 +031 154046 047 033 000 00
184000 1730N 08308W 6959 03193 0107 +080 +032 150046 046 032 001 00
$$
;

[HenkL]

972 mb is what dropsonde measured.

Dropsonde in souther eyewall: wind 53.5 m/s at sea level (104 kt).

[Vortex]

NWS Miami:

Keeping a vigilant eye on Rina:


...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD WITHIN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE
12Z GFS MODEL SUGGESTS RINA MAY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE
YUCATAN...GETTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS COULD ACT TO STEER
RINA TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND GET SHEARED
APART AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS
THIS SITUATION CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE COMING DAYS.

[cycloneye]

972 mb is what dropsonde measured.

Dropsonde in souther eyewall: wind 53.5 m/s at sea level (104 kt).

Thank you for clarifying this.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251850
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 24 20111025
184030 1732N 08308W 6961 03192 0112 +075 +042 145046 046 032 001 00
184100 1735N 08307W 6965 03189 0112 +077 +040 145046 046 031 001 00
184130 1737N 08307W 6969 03186 0118 +074 +040 141045 045 031 000 00
184200 1739N 08306W 6970 03186 0118 +074 +041 137044 045 031 000 00
184230 1741N 08306W 6969 03186 0123 +069 +043 135044 044 032 001 00
184300 1744N 08306W 6966 03189 0115 +077 +041 137044 045 032 001 00
184330 1746N 08305W 6967 03189 0111 +080 +039 138043 044 032 000 00
184400 1748N 08305W 6966 03189 0106 +084 +039 138043 043 033 003 00
184430 1751N 08304W 6967 03189 0107 +084 +040 137042 042 032 000 00
184500 1753N 08304W 6967 03189 0108 +084 +040 136042 042 030 000 00
184530 1755N 08304W 6967 03192 0109 +085 +040 135041 041 029 000 00
184600 1758N 08303W 6967 03193 0109 +085 +040 135041 041 030 001 00
184630 1800N 08303W 6967 03194 0111 +085 +040 135040 040 029 000 00
184700 1802N 08302W 6967 03195 0113 +085 +041 134038 038 029 001 00
184730 1804N 08302W 6969 03194 0112 +086 +034 130038 039 028 000 00
184800 1807N 08301W 6967 03197 0116 +085 +031 127038 038 027 000 00
184830 1809N 08301W 6967 03197 0116 +085 +031 128038 038 027 000 03
184900 1811N 08301W 6967 03197 0116 +085 +031 129037 038 027 000 00
184930 1813N 08300W 6967 03197 0112 +086 +030 129037 037 026 000 00
185000 1815N 08300W 6968 03195 0110 +089 +028 125037 037 026 000 00
$$
;

[westwind]

972 mb is what dropsonde measured.

Dropsonde in souther eyewall: wind 53.5 m/s at sea level (104 kt).

easily supports cat 3 at next advisory.

[fci]

12Z GFDL gave up on the FL hit. Takes it into the SE Gulf just NE of the Yucatan on Friday morning then slowly NE during the day Friday before turning SE and moving inland into Havana on Saturday. Then SW and back to the NW Caribbean. Down to 36 kts at 126 hrs.
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... tats.short

How about I just post a graphic?
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/gfdl.png

The GFDL takes her much further inland on the Yucatan too.
Official track and other models showed he skirting the coast or even staying offshore Yucatan.

[MWatkins]

Bafflingly, the Euro loses Rina starting around 24 hours from now.

Will be taking a closer look at the pattern, but the 96 hour 500MB chart would favor Rina ejecting out of the Caribbean to the NE.

MW

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that Hurricane Rina can become a catergory 4 Hurricane?

[Florida1118]

Does anyone think that Hurricane Rina can become a catergory 4 Hurricane?

Im thinking about a 9% chance...though at 5pm I might change it

[Vortex]

I think theyll bump her up to 115 for the 5pm...I also think given trends today GFS/HWRF/GFDL there is a distinct possibility now that the Florida keys and southern Florida may experience a period of tropical storm conditions Friday night/Saturday morning than exiting the area Saturday afternoon with much drier and cooler air filtering in on the backside...



The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251900
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 25 20111025
185030 1818N 08259W 6972 03192 0112 +087 +028 126037 037 025 000 00
185100 1820N 08259W 6968 03197 0110 +090 +027 124036 036 024 001 00
185130 1822N 08259W 6962 03203 0110 +089 +028 125036 036 024 000 00
185200 1824N 08258W 6970 03193 0112 +089 +029 126034 035 024 000 00
185230 1827N 08258W 6963 03203 0110 +090 +028 127033 033 024 000 00
185300 1829N 08257W 6969 03195 0110 +090 +027 130033 034 023 000 00
185330 1831N 08257W 6971 03194 0115 +087 +026 128032 033 023 000 00
185400 1834N 08257W 6962 03202 0115 +086 +028 129032 033 023 000 00
185430 1836N 08256W 6963 03200 0112 +087 +031 127030 031 /// /// 03
185500 1837N 08258W 6970 03196 0115 +087 +030 123029 029 /// /// 03
185530 1837N 08300W 6969 03197 0117 +085 +032 126028 028 /// /// 03
185600 1835N 08301W 6974 03191 0113 +090 +030 131029 029 024 000 03
185630 1833N 08303W 6966 03202 0113 +090 +028 129029 030 023 001 00
185700 1831N 08304W 6967 03199 0112 +090 +027 127030 030 024 000 00
185730 1830N 08306W 6969 03200 0114 +090 +027 124031 032 024 000 00
185800 1828N 08307W 6966 03203 0119 +086 +026 121032 033 025 000 00
185830 1827N 08309W 6968 03199 0116 +087 +023 120033 033 025 000 00
185900 1825N 08311W 6967 03199 0118 +085 +026 121034 034 025 000 00
185930 1824N 08312W 6969 03197 0118 +085 +027 123033 034 026 000 00
190000 1822N 08314W 6967 03198 0117 +085 +025 123034 035 027 000 00
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Does anyone think that Hurricane Rina can become a catergory 4 Hurricane?

Im thinking about a 9% chance...though at 5pm I might change it

FYI adam0983, he's referring to the NHC meteorologists who currently give her a 9% chance of reaching cat. 4.
At 5pm they are going to release the new advisory package with new percentages.
Just in case you are confused.
Personally I would give her a 1 in 4 chance before she runs into the shear saw an gets shredded.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251910
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 26 20111025
190030 1820N 08316W 6966 03199 0115 +087 +024 119035 036 028 000 00
190100 1819N 08317W 6971 03195 0117 +087 +031 119036 036 028 000 00
190130 1817N 08319W 6978 03189 0116 +087 +028 121037 037 029 000 00
190200 1816N 08320W 6963 03200 0116 +083 +029 119037 037 029 000 00
190230 1815N 08322W 6970 03192 0118 +080 +028 116039 039 031 000 00
190300 1813N 08323W 6964 03195 0118 +079 +028 115039 040 032 002 00
190330 1812N 08325W 6966 03192 0115 +078 +031 116040 041 032 001 00
190400 1811N 08326W 6965 03186 0113 +075 +034 117043 044 033 004 00
190430 1809N 08327W 6967 03178 0105 +075 +035 115043 046 036 007 03
190500 1808N 08329W 6980 03166 0112 +071 +038 115046 048 037 015 00
190530 1807N 08330W 6960 03183 0125 +057 +032 111047 048 035 006 00
190600 1806N 08332W 6972 03166 0135 +048 +034 117049 052 036 014 00
190630 1804N 08333W 6959 03177 0123 +059 +034 119052 054 045 016 03
190700 1803N 08334W 6966 03170 0103 +071 +033 117047 050 037 007 00
190730 1802N 08336W 6968 03167 0114 +061 +033 119048 048 036 006 00
190800 1800N 08337W 6969 03167 0111 +063 +034 126049 051 036 007 00
190830 1759N 08338W 6966 03167 0096 +072 +033 124051 052 035 005 00
190900 1758N 08340W 6968 03161 0094 +071 +033 123052 052 037 004 00
190930 1756N 08341W 6967 03159 0099 +063 +034 125052 053 037 006 00
191000 1755N 08342W 6974 03146 0105 +056 +031 128059 062 039 008 00
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

Off topic questions. I noticed that the pros arent posting many forecasts in the tropical analysis forum this season, why is that?

[wxman57]

Off topic questions. I noticed that the pros arent posting many forecasts in the tropical analysis forum this season, why is that?

Two reasons:
1. Too busy
2. Forgot about that forum

[Blown Away]

Off topic questions. I noticed that the pros arent posting many forecasts in the tropical analysis forum this season, why is that?

Because the cool people and action are in the Talkin Tropics forum!

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251920
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 27 20111025
191030 1754N 08344W 6965 03156 0096 +061 +029 129063 063 039 006 00
191100 1753N 08345W 6966 03152 0084 +068 +029 125063 063 039 006 00
191130 1751N 08346W 6967 03146 0082 +067 +029 123062 064 039 004 00
191200 1750N 08348W 6970 03137 0085 +060 +030 124065 067 039 004 00
191230 1749N 08349W 6969 03136 0081 +058 +030 125068 069 040 006 00
191300 1748N 08350W 6965 03135 0082 +052 +030 125071 072 043 009 00
191330 1746N 08352W 6967 03124 0082 +047 +031 128063 065 044 011 00
191400 1745N 08353W 6967 03124 0074 +052 +031 128068 069 046 008 00
191430 1744N 08354W 6962 03122 0071 +049 +030 127067 069 047 011 00
191500 1743N 08355W 6965 03115 0054 +057 +033 127062 063 049 011 00
191530 1741N 08357W 6968 03108 0045 +059 +035 127064 066 053 010 00
191600 1740N 08358W 6965 03102 0021 +071 +034 129065 066 055 007 00
191630 1739N 08359W 6972 03088 9994 +087 +034 127067 070 057 004 00
191700 1738N 08401W 6967 03086 9997 +078 +034 127072 074 058 003 00
191730 1736N 08402W 6961 03081 9974 +084 +036 132074 075 061 002 00
191800 1735N 08403W 6978 03049 9951 +095 +038 134075 076 066 003 00
191830 1734N 08405W 6966 03052 9928 +101 +038 132075 076 069 002 00
191900 1733N 08406W 6965 03037 9892 +117 +036 133077 079 073 003 00
191930 1732N 08407W 6965 03015 9869 +119 +037 132081 083 077 005 00
192000 1730N 08408W 6975 02980 9884 +080 +044 127084 087 079 013 00
$$
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