ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Yea, but Wilma almost cancelled Halloween. Rina is much closer time wise. If it can make enough damage in SFL (which is still unlikely), it could hamper Halloween plans.

Even if the 12Z GFS is right, Rina would likely be a weakening TS as it crossed south Florida, more extratropical than tropical. TS winds would probably be mostly over the water, not inland. Rina wouldn't be another Wilma.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251620
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 09 20111025
161030 2506N 08742W 3758 08033 0411 -230 -312 197014 014 015 000 00
161100 2504N 08741W 3759 08033 0414 -230 -315 196014 014 015 000 00
161130 2501N 08740W 3757 08040 0416 -230 -311 202014 014 018 000 00
161200 2459N 08739W 3761 08034 0417 -230 -312 205013 014 016 000 00
161230 2456N 08738W 3759 08037 0417 -230 -314 205013 013 015 000 00
161300 2454N 08737W 3761 08035 0417 -230 -313 200013 013 016 000 00
161330 2451N 08735W 3758 08036 0414 -230 -314 201013 014 015 000 00
161400 2449N 08734W 3758 08030 0409 -230 -316 205013 013 015 000 00
161430 2447N 08733W 3759 08024 0405 -230 -315 207013 014 016 000 00
161500 2444N 08732W 3759 08022 0402 -229 -316 207013 013 017 000 00
161530 2442N 08731W 3759 08022 0401 -230 -317 203012 012 018 000 00
161600 2439N 08730W 3759 08019 0400 -230 -317 202012 012 019 000 00
161630 2437N 08729W 3758 08020 0399 -230 -317 205011 011 020 000 00
161700 2434N 08728W 3759 08019 0399 -231 -318 203011 011 019 000 00
161730 2432N 08727W 3760 08017 0399 -232 -319 203012 013 018 000 00
161800 2430N 08726W 3759 08018 0400 -230 -319 205013 013 018 000 00
161830 2427N 08724W 3758 08024 0401 -230 -319 211013 013 018 000 00
161900 2425N 08723W 3759 08021 0401 -230 -319 213013 014 018 000 00
161930 2422N 08722W 3759 08021 0401 -227 -320 215014 015 018 000 00
162000 2420N 08721W 3758 08021 0400 -227 -320 215015 015 019 000 00
$$
;

[Blown Away]

12Z GFS merges Rina with the front early on Friday then takes the center inland into Ft. Myers late Friday afternoon. If it was to do that, then it might not be very tropical by the time it crosses Florida. Not buying it just yet. There are a whole bunch of planes investigating Rina today, including a G-IV. Should have some good data to feed into this evening's models.

Wxman, it seems you like to use historical tracks along w/ hard science to determine a tracks. The due E or ESE movement of an October system near Yucatan is pretty rare, Paula was the only one i could find. So don't you think a track towards SFL as a decoupled system merging w/ the front is more likely than a loop or ESE movement back into the Caribbean?

[CourierPR]

http://pic.twitter.com/QmBUapNn

Check out this forecast from Bastardi on twitter.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS merges Rina with the front early on Friday then takes the center inland into Ft. Myers late Friday afternoon. If it was to do that, then it might not be very tropical by the time it crosses Florida. Not buying it just yet. There are a whole bunch of planes investigating Rina today, including a G-IV. Should have some good data to feed into this evening's models.

Wxman, it seems you like to use historical tracks along w/ hard science to determine a tracks. The due E or ESE movement of an October system near Yucatan is pretty rare, Paula was the only one i could find. So don't you think a track towards SFL as a decoupled system merging w/ the front is more likely than a loop or ESE movement back into the Caribbean?

It all depends on if/when Rina is picked up by the front. If Rina lifts out to the north more quickly, like the 12Z GFS indicates, then it will track NE across south Florida as it merges with the front. But if Rina moves more slowly, then it's blocked by building high pressure to its north over the weekend, forcing it east or south of east.

[wzrgirl1]

http://pic.twitter.com/QmBUapNn

Check out this forecast from Bastardi on twitter.

People who don't have a twitter account can't see it. Can you cut and paste? Is that allowed?

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 251432
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

...RINA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA
TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RINA WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RINA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO THURSDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RINA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A
SMALL EYE SEEN IN AN 1128 UTC SSMIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED 12Z DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE
HURRICANE IS SITUATED OVER A REGION OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY TO THE
NORTH. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR
HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE EXPERIENCES INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD
THE LATEST RUN OF THE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...AS RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN RINA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
IS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK
LYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

BASED ON THE FASTER TRACK FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 17.4N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 17.7N 84.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.2N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 19.1N 86.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 20.2N 87.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 22.0N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 22.5N 83.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251630
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 10 20111025
162030 2418N 08720W 3759 08020 0400 -228 -320 215014 015 017 001 00
162100 2415N 08719W 3759 08021 0401 -225 -322 213015 015 019 000 00
162130 2413N 08718W 3759 08020 0401 -225 -322 209015 015 019 000 00
162200 2410N 08717W 3759 08021 0401 -225 -322 210015 015 020 000 00
162230 2408N 08716W 3758 08022 0400 -225 -322 209016 016 018 000 00
162300 2405N 08714W 3761 08016 0400 -225 -323 209015 015 020 000 00
162330 2403N 08713W 3757 08025 0400 -225 -323 207016 016 020 000 00
162400 2401N 08712W 3761 08018 0400 -225 -323 209016 016 021 000 00
162430 2358N 08711W 3758 08024 0401 -225 -323 202017 018 020 000 00
162500 2356N 08710W 3759 08020 0402 -225 -324 201017 017 021 000 00
162530 2353N 08709W 3759 08022 0402 -223 -324 202017 018 021 000 00
162600 2351N 08708W 3758 08026 0405 -223 -325 204017 018 020 000 00
162630 2349N 08707W 3761 08026 0408 -220 -325 199019 019 019 000 00
162700 2346N 08706W 3760 08030 0411 -220 -325 196020 021 020 001 00
162730 2344N 08705W 3759 08032 0412 -219 -326 199020 021 018 001 00
162800 2342N 08704W 3758 08036 0413 -219 -325 196020 020 020 000 00
162830 2339N 08703W 3761 08031 0413 -220 -326 204019 019 021 000 00
162900 2337N 08702W 3758 08037 0414 -220 -327 207018 019 020 001 00
162930 2334N 08700W 3758 08033 0413 -220 -327 205018 019 021 000 00
163000 2332N 08659W 3759 08032 0413 -220 -328 207019 019 021 000 00
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

wilma did ruin halloween there was no power there were down power lines lots of water on the streets and debri everywhere. i got about 4 trick or treators and they were just from around my house nearby.

[tolakram]

25 frame live loop in rapid scan mode.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

[cycloneye]

http://pic.twitter.com/QmBUapNn

Check out this forecast from Bastardi on twitter.

People who don't have a twitter account can't see it. Can you cut and paste? Is that allowed?

Only messages about the theme on hand can be posted,not about other topics as a member posted the other day a long list of tweets about other things not related.

[caneseddy]

http://pic.twitter.com/QmBUapNn

Check out this forecast from Bastardi on twitter.

People who don't have a twitter account can't see it. Can you cut and paste? Is that allowed?

I can't cut and paste but he is pretty much saying that his forecast for Rina from yesterday morning and from this morning is identical to the 12z GFS that just came out.....difference is he has Rina as a Cat 1 into South Florida

[fci]

http://pic.twitter.com/QmBUapNn

Check out this forecast from Bastardi on twitter.

People who don't have a twitter account can't see it. Can you cut and paste? Is that allowed?

Here is his comment

Top left my forecast for Rina from 5:30 am yesterday. bottom left from 5:30 am today. right: new GFS for sat am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Here is the graphic (Mods, if this is not permitted; feel free to delete my post or just this graphic, if needed)


He then tweeted this at about 12:15 PM Tuesday:

As per tweets you have seen from last week, we have been telling S Fla this was something to watch.See if TPC shifts to ours at 5 pm

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251640
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 11 20111025
163030 2330N 08658W 3758 08033 0412 -220 -329 204020 021 022 000 00
163100 2327N 08657W 3761 08029 0412 -219 -329 208020 021 022 000 00
163130 2325N 08656W 3758 08032 0412 -215 -328 206020 020 022 000 00
163200 2323N 08655W 3761 08029 0411 -218 -327 210019 019 022 000 00
163230 2320N 08654W 3759 08031 0411 -215 -327 213019 020 022 000 00
163300 2318N 08653W 3758 08032 0410 -214 -327 216019 020 021 000 00
163330 2315N 08652W 3757 08034 0410 -212 -327 223019 020 021 000 00
163400 2313N 08651W 3758 08033 0411 -210 -328 227019 020 021 000 00
163430 2310N 08650W 3759 08032 0412 -210 -330 231020 020 022 000 00
163500 2308N 08649W 3758 08032 0411 -210 -330 232020 020 022 000 00
163530 2306N 08647W 3761 08028 0411 -209 -330 235019 019 023 000 00
163600 2303N 08646W 3759 08032 0412 -208 -331 239019 019 022 000 00
163630 2301N 08645W 3759 08034 0413 -209 -333 237019 019 021 000 00
163700 2258N 08644W 3759 08033 0413 -210 -332 239018 019 022 000 00
163730 2256N 08643W 3757 08035 0410 -210 -334 241018 018 021 000 00
163800 2253N 08642W 3761 08024 0408 -210 -335 243018 018 022 000 00
163830 2251N 08641W 3760 08025 0407 -210 -334 243018 018 021 000 00
163900 2248N 08640W 3758 08029 0408 -210 -334 247018 018 021 000 00
163930 2246N 08639W 3759 08027 0407 -210 -334 248018 018 021 000 00
164000 2243N 08638W 3758 08028 0407 -209 -334 252017 018 021 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

fci,added to that post the S2k disclaimer.

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Folks across SFL and the keys may very well experience winds of 40-50 and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. With the recent heavy rains even minimal TS winds will bring down trees and power line. Persons in SFL and the keys should begin to monitor the progress of Rina closely...

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251650
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 12 20111025
164030 2241N 08636W 3760 08025 0407 -205 -333 255016 016 021 000 00
164100 2238N 08635W 3758 08028 0407 -202 -335 252016 016 021 000 00
164130 2236N 08634W 3760 08026 0409 -203 -334 249015 015 023 000 00
164200 2233N 08633W 3759 08029 0409 -205 -333 249015 015 023 000 00
164230 2231N 08632W 3758 08030 0409 -205 -332 248015 015 024 000 00
164300 2228N 08631W 3758 08029 0408 -205 -332 250015 016 024 000 00
164330 2226N 08630W 3759 08028 0409 -205 -332 248015 015 024 000 00
164400 2223N 08629W 3758 08032 0410 -205 -332 248014 014 024 000 00
164430 2221N 08627W 3759 08030 0411 -205 -331 248014 014 024 000 00
164500 2218N 08626W 3758 08034 0412 -205 -331 249014 014 025 001 00
164530 2216N 08625W 3761 08030 0412 -205 -330 246014 014 025 000 00
164600 2213N 08623W 3758 08034 0412 -205 -329 251014 014 025 000 00
164630 2211N 08622W 3758 08036 0413 -205 -329 253012 013 025 000 00
164700 2209N 08621W 3759 08031 0412 -205 -330 249012 013 025 000 00
164730 2206N 08620W 3759 08034 0413 -205 -329 253012 012 025 000 00
164800 2204N 08618W 3758 08033 0412 -200 -329 255012 012 025 000 00
164830 2201N 08617W 3759 08032 0412 -195 -330 259014 015 027 000 00
164900 2159N 08616W 3758 08033 0413 -194 -328 261014 015 028 000 00
164930 2156N 08615W 3758 08035 0414 -195 -327 259014 015 027 001 00
165000 2154N 08613W 3759 08032 0413 -194 -327 259014 015 027 000 00
$$
;

[Vortex]

Per latest Hi-res visible, Rina appears to be strengthen further. In fact, the eye appears to have contracted and cleared out some over the last 2 hours.

[westwind]

Per latest Hi-res visible, Rina appears to be strengthen further. In fact, the eye appears to have contracted and cleared out some over the last 2 hours.

Yeah I think recon will find a cat 3. I wonder how strong Rina will be able to get?

[Vortex]

When is recon due back in??