ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

647
URNT15 KNHC 251520
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 03 20111025
151030 2948N 08915W 5005 05855 0290 -102 -134 119002 002 /// /// 03
151100 2946N 08914W 4913 06000 0297 -112 -142 063001 002 /// /// 03
151130 2944N 08914W 4819 06145 0302 -119 -150 186004 005 /// /// 03
151200 2941N 08914W 4727 06296 0310 -128 -158 222005 006 /// /// 03
151230 2939N 08914W 4648 06429 0321 -137 -166 238004 005 /// /// 03
151300 2937N 08914W 4572 06553 0326 -142 -172 252007 008 /// /// 03
151330 2935N 08914W 4502 06670 0331 -147 -178 259008 008 /// /// 03
151400 2933N 08914W 4430 06793 0338 -152 -184 247008 008 /// /// 03
151430 2931N 08914W 4359 06915 0343 -161 -190 230009 010 /// /// 03
151500 2929N 08914W 4289 07038 0350 -169 -196 230012 012 /// /// 03
151530 2927N 08914W 4228 07143 0355 -177 -200 230012 012 /// /// 03
151600 2925N 08914W 4170 07248 0360 -183 -205 230013 013 /// /// 03
151630 2923N 08914W 4113 07350 0365 -193 -209 229012 012 /// /// 03
151700 2921N 08914W 4061 07447 0371 -197 -214 233013 014 /// /// 03
151730 2918N 08914W 4008 07547 0377 -204 -219 230014 015 /// /// 03
151800 2916N 08914W 3958 07641 0384 -212 -222 228013 013 /// /// 03
151830 2914N 08914W 3915 07724 0387 -216 -224 229014 014 /// /// 03
151900 2912N 08914W 3870 07806 0390 -221 //// 228016 017 /// /// 05
151930 2910N 08914W 3826 07892 0396 -226 //// 225017 017 /// /// 05
152000 2908N 08914W 3785 07971 0399 -232 //// 228018 018 /// /// 05
$$
;

[HurricaneWarning92]

i think shes at somewhere in the 110-120 mph.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[maxx9512]

Rina looks impressive here. If you look closely at the eye it kinda resembles a hurricane symbol!



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[westwind]

I can take it

000
URNT15 KNHC 251530
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 04 20111025
152030 2906N 08913W 3762 08017 0403 -236 //// 228018 018 /// /// 05
152100 2904N 08913W 3755 08030 0404 -240 //// 227018 019 /// /// 05
152130 2901N 08913W 3758 08025 0403 -238 //// 227018 019 /// /// 05
152200 2859N 08913W 3758 08024 0403 -235 //// 224019 019 /// /// 05
152230 2857N 08913W 3758 08025 0402 -235 //// 220019 019 /// /// 05
152300 2854N 08913W 3758 08022 0400 -235 //// 217018 019 /// /// 05
152330 2852N 08913W 3758 08020 0399 -235 //// 212017 017 /// /// 05
152400 2849N 08913W 3758 08020 0399 -235 //// 210017 018 /// /// 05
152430 2847N 08913W 3758 08022 0400 -235 //// 206018 018 /// /// 05
152500 2844N 08913W 3758 08022 0401 -235 //// 203018 018 /// /// 05
152530 2842N 08913W 3759 08022 0401 -235 //// 205018 019 /// /// 05
152600 2839N 08913W 3759 08021 0401 -235 //// 204018 018 /// /// 05
152630 2837N 08913W 3759 08023 0402 -236 //// 205018 018 /// /// 05
152700 2834N 08913W 3759 08023 0402 -235 //// 205018 018 /// /// 05
152730 2832N 08913W 3759 08023 0403 -235 -236 201018 018 /// /// 03
152800 2829N 08913W 3758 08024 0403 -235 -236 202018 018 /// /// 03
152830 2827N 08913W 3758 08024 0403 -235 -238 203018 018 /// /// 03
152900 2824N 08913W 3759 08021 0403 -235 -239 202018 018 /// /// 03
152930 2821N 08912W 3759 08023 0404 -235 -242 201018 019 /// /// 03
153000 2819N 08912W 3758 08022 0402 -235 -244 201018 018 /// /// 03
$$
;

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251540
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 05 20111025
153030 2816N 08912W 3759 08021 0402 -235 -243 205017 017 /// /// 03
153100 2814N 08912W 3758 08021 0400 -235 -245 206017 017 /// /// 03
153130 2811N 08911W 3759 08020 0401 -235 -245 206017 018 /// /// 03
153200 2809N 08909W 3759 08020 0401 -235 -245 206017 017 /// /// 03
153230 2807N 08908W 3759 08019 0400 -235 -247 205017 017 /// /// 03
153300 2804N 08907W 3758 08020 0400 -235 -249 204017 017 /// /// 03
153330 2802N 08906W 3758 08020 0399 -235 -250 203017 017 /// /// 03
153400 2800N 08905W 3759 08017 0398 -235 -252 202016 016 /// /// 03
153430 2757N 08904W 3759 08019 0398 -235 -253 203016 016 /// /// 03
153500 2755N 08902W 3758 08019 0398 -235 -253 203016 016 /// /// 03
153530 2752N 08901W 3759 08017 0397 -235 -256 203016 016 /// /// 03
153600 2750N 08900W 3759 08017 0397 -235 -257 204015 015 /// /// 03
153630 2748N 08859W 3758 08017 0397 -235 -258 201015 015 /// /// 03
153700 2745N 08858W 3759 08015 0396 -235 -261 199015 015 /// /// 03
153730 2743N 08857W 3759 08016 0396 -235 -261 198016 016 /// /// 03
153800 2740N 08855W 3759 08017 0397 -235 -261 196015 015 /// /// 03
153830 2738N 08854W 3759 08016 0397 -235 -263 194015 015 /// /// 03
153900 2736N 08853W 3759 08017 0397 -235 -263 189014 014 /// /// 03
153930 2733N 08852W 3759 08020 0400 -235 -261 188014 014 /// /// 03
154000 2731N 08851W 3759 08027 0407 -235 -263 187015 015 /// /// 03
$$
;

[eastcoastFL]

Does anyone think the land interaction with the Yucatan could affect the long term track?

[wxman57]

Does anyone think the land interaction with the Yucatan could affect the long term track?

Interaction with the Yucatan, combined with increasing vertical wind shear will certainly result in steady weakening of Rina as it tracks along the coast of the Yucatan. But that's in the forecast. By Friday afternoon, a moderate cold front will be approaching Rina from the northwest. Once the cooler, drier air filters into Rina it should weaken quickly. I still don't see anything that would allow the center to track into southern Florida, as the cold front will be south of Florida on Saturday.

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251550
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 06 20111025
154030 2729N 08850W 3759 08028 0409 -235 -264 184014 015 /// /// 03
154100 2726N 08849W 3759 08030 0410 -235 -267 188014 014 /// /// 03
154130 2724N 08847W 3759 08030 0411 -235 -268 187014 014 /// /// 03
154200 2722N 08846W 3759 08030 0411 -235 -268 184014 014 /// /// 03
154230 2719N 08845W 3759 08032 0411 -235 -270 184014 014 /// /// 03
154300 2717N 08844W 3759 08032 0411 -235 -272 186014 014 /// /// 03
154330 2714N 08843W 3759 08032 0411 -235 -273 187013 014 005 000 03
154400 2712N 08842W 3759 08032 0411 -235 -274 185014 014 004 000 00
154430 2710N 08840W 3759 08030 0411 -235 -274 183014 014 007 000 00
154500 2707N 08839W 3759 08033 0412 -235 -274 183014 015 005 000 00
154530 2705N 08838W 3759 08031 0412 -235 -274 182015 015 006 000 00
154600 2703N 08837W 3758 08033 0411 -235 -275 182015 015 006 000 00
154630 2700N 08836W 3759 08031 0411 -235 -276 181014 014 007 000 00
154700 2658N 08835W 3759 08030 0411 -235 -278 181013 013 006 001 00
154730 2655N 08834W 3759 08030 0411 -235 -278 181013 014 005 000 00
154800 2653N 08833W 3759 08029 0410 -235 -280 180013 013 010 000 00
154830 2651N 08831W 3759 08030 0410 -235 -282 182013 013 012 000 00
154900 2648N 08830W 3759 08029 0410 -235 -282 183013 013 011 000 00
154930 2646N 08829W 3758 08030 0410 -235 -283 178013 014 011 000 00
155000 2643N 08828W 3761 08026 0409 -235 -284 174014 014 013 000 00
$$
;

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wxman, I agree the center doesn't look like it will track over SFL, but if the system decapitates or otherwise weakens quickly, isn't there a strong likelihood that all of the moisture and "effects" of the storm are going to flow over the southern portion of the state?
An approaching front usually rips these storms apart this time of year and spreads them out in front of them as they get absorbed into the flow. Will this be any different?

[wxman57]

wxman, I agree the center doesn't look like it will track over SFL, but if the system decapitates or otherwise weakens quickly, isn't there a strong likelihood that all of the moisture and "effects" of the storm are going to flow over the southern portion of the state?
An approaching front usually rips these storms apart this time of year and spreads them out in front of them as they get absorbed into the flow. Will this be any different?

Yes, that is true. Some of the moisture will track up the front to the northeast, and that could enhance rainfall along the front as it pushes through south Florida on Saturday. Even if the center moves inland into Cuba near Havana, the Keys could still see NE-ENE winds of 35-40 mph with higher gusts due to Rina's wind field expanding as it interacts with the front.

[eastcoastFL]

All i am worried about is taking my kids out for halloween. I hope this thing stays far away and lets them have their fun.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS merges Rina with the front early on Friday then takes the center inland into Ft. Myers late Friday afternoon. If it was to do that, then it might not be very tropical by the time it crosses Florida. Not buying it just yet. There are a whole bunch of planes investigating Rina today, including a G-IV. Should have some good data to feed into this evening's models.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Another big question is how this will all evolve with Sean on the horizon as well, and supposedly that will be in the same area as Rina, but a day or two later, and supposedly not affected the same way as Rita is by the front.
How will Rina affect Sean and how migh tSean affect Rina?

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251600
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 07 20111025
155030 2641N 08827W 3759 08029 0408 -235 -285 170014 015 016 000 00
155100 2639N 08826W 3761 08025 0407 -235 -286 170015 015 012 000 00
155130 2636N 08825W 3758 08028 0407 -235 -287 172015 015 014 000 00
155200 2634N 08823W 3759 08026 0406 -235 -288 172014 015 017 000 00
155230 2632N 08822W 3761 08024 0406 -235 -288 172015 015 014 001 00
155300 2629N 08821W 3757 08029 0405 -235 -289 171015 015 016 000 00
155330 2627N 08820W 3762 08019 0404 -235 -290 169014 015 016 000 00
155400 2625N 08819W 3757 08030 0407 -235 -291 167014 014 014 000 00
155430 2622N 08818W 3761 08031 0414 -235 -291 166014 015 014 000 00
155500 2620N 08817W 3759 08037 0417 -235 -292 164015 015 014 000 00
155530 2617N 08816W 3758 08042 0419 -235 -293 161014 014 016 000 00
155600 2615N 08814W 3761 08037 0420 -234 -294 159013 014 018 000 00
155630 2613N 08813W 3755 08046 0420 -235 -294 160013 013 016 001 00
155700 2610N 08812W 3762 08036 0420 -235 -295 155012 012 017 000 00
155730 2608N 08811W 3758 08044 0421 -235 -297 156013 014 017 000 00
155800 2606N 08810W 3759 08038 0418 -235 -295 159014 014 015 000 00
155830 2603N 08809W 3759 08038 0419 -231 -296 168013 013 016 000 00
155900 2601N 08808W 3758 08038 0417 -230 -298 168014 014 016 000 00
155930 2558N 08807W 3758 08037 0416 -230 -297 166016 016 014 000 00
160000 2556N 08806W 3758 08036 0415 -230 -298 168015 016 016 000 00
$$
;

[westwind]

000
URNT15 KNHC 251610
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 08 20111025
160030 2554N 08804W 3759 08034 0414 -231 -298 170013 014 017 000 00
160100 2551N 08803W 3759 08034 0413 -231 -299 170014 014 015 000 00
160130 2549N 08802W 3759 08034 0414 -230 -300 171013 013 014 000 00
160200 2547N 08801W 3759 08034 0414 -230 -300 177012 013 015 000 00
160230 2544N 08800W 3759 08036 0416 -230 -301 177012 012 015 000 00
160300 2542N 08759W 3759 08035 0417 -230 -301 176012 012 014 000 00
160330 2539N 08758W 3759 08035 0417 -230 -303 171013 013 016 000 00
160400 2537N 08757W 3758 08039 0417 -230 -302 172013 013 015 000 00
160430 2535N 08755W 3762 08033 0419 -230 -302 170013 014 016 000 00
160500 2532N 08754W 3757 08044 0419 -230 -303 171013 013 017 000 00
160530 2530N 08753W 3762 08031 0417 -230 -305 172013 013 017 000 00
160600 2527N 08752W 3758 08040 0418 -230 -305 174013 013 017 000 00
160630 2525N 08751W 3758 08037 0416 -230 -305 177013 014 016 000 00
160700 2523N 08750W 3759 08035 0415 -230 -306 179012 012 019 000 00
160730 2520N 08749W 3758 08035 0413 -230 -307 180011 012 018 000 00
160800 2518N 08748W 3759 08030 0411 -230 -308 197011 011 016 000 00
160830 2516N 08747W 3759 08032 0411 -230 -308 202011 012 016 000 00
160900 2513N 08746W 3759 08028 0409 -230 -309 207011 011 015 000 00
160930 2511N 08744W 3760 08029 0410 -230 -310 202012 013 015 001 00
161000 2508N 08743W 3759 08030 0410 -230 -311 200013 013 017 000 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

All i am worried about is taking my kids out for halloween. I hope this thing stays far away and lets them have their fun.

Rina will be long-gone by Halloween (Monday). High pressure and cooler weather will dominate Florida.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS merges Rina with the front early on Friday then takes the center inland into Ft. Myers late Friday afternoon. If it was to do that, then it might not be very tropical by the time it crosses Florida. Not buying it just yet. There are a whole bunch of planes investigating Rina today, including a G-IV. Should have some good data to feed into this evening's models.

Saved Image of what 57 is saying...

[wxman57]

Another big question is how this will all evolve with Sean on the horizon as well, and supposedly that will be in the same area as Rina, but a day or two later, and supposedly not affected the same way as Rita is by the front.
How will Rina affect Sean and how might Sean affect Rina?

I don't think "Sean" will make it, as the disturbance will be impacted by Rina's outflow by tomorrow. It is interesting that the models (BAMs) have the disturbance right about where Rina is forecast to be in 5 days, and as a hurricane. Clearly, both forecasts can't be right.

[CronkPSU]

12Z GFS merges Rina with the front early on Friday then takes the center inland into Ft. Myers late Friday afternoon. If it was to do that, then it might not be very tropical by the time it crosses Florida. Not buying it just yet. There are a whole bunch of planes investigating Rina today, including a G-IV. Should have some good data to feed into this evening's models.

That would still make for a pretty nice storm over most of the state

[Evil Jeremy]

All i am worried about is taking my kids out for halloween. I hope this thing stays far away and lets them have their fun.

Rina will be long-gone by Halloween (Monday). High pressure and cooler weather will dominate Florida.

Yea, but Wilma almost cancelled Halloween. Rina is much closer time wise. If it can make enough damage in SFL (which is still unlikely), it could hamper Halloween plans.