ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

I am surprised nobody else has commented on the 06z GFS.
It keeps trending closer to S FL of at least of a tropical storm condition possible affecting the keys and extreme southern FL Friday and Saturday.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

It also disintegrates Rina over the Keys/Florida Straits. With the front I imagine all the moisture would be ripped off the system and spread over the peninsula.

GFS has trended north with each run but hasn't stopped the weakening trend.

Yes, it hasn't stopped weakening Rina, but the point is that it has trended northward of where it starts weakening Rina. Yesterday it was showing it to happen in the NW Caribbean, latest run shows much closer to the FL Keys.

[psyclone]

i definitely remain convinced this system will not amount to anything of consequence for florida. i can envision the possibility of a brief shot of rain for the southern end of the state as convection may pass over that region as it shears off to the east northeast but even if that happens, rainfall amounts may be limited due to speed. it is also easy to imagine a scenario where all of it passes to the south of florida. we'll see. it seems like we're in a november type pattern with repeated strong fronts bringing dry, cool air very far south. not good for late season storms outside the western caribbean.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.





Rina appears to have nearly doubled in size overnight...it will be interesting to see what remains of rina as she *potentially* impacts the keys/sfl....

[SouthDadeFish]

She seems to be taking on some dry air. The convective pattern looks somewhat ragged to me.

[SouthDadeFish]

This visible isn't that bad though:



You can tell where the eye is, but it hasn't cleared out yet.

[Vortex]

This visible isn't that bad though:

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/336/203cd.jpg

You can tell where the eye is, but it hasn't cleared out yet.

Nice Presentation!

[AdamFirst]

Key West AFD from this morning

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GOVERN THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND DEEPENS INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL RETREAT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DECAY...AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA RETROGRADES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS HURRICANE RINA WILL MOVE
"SLOWLY" WEST NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. PRECIPITATION WISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL
MOISTURE INCREASING WITH AN ORGANIZING WIND FIELD AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. IN COMPARISON TO LAST WEEKS EVENT WHICH
RESULTED IN TREMENDOUS RAINFALL AMOUNTS....FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
REVEALING PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 2 INCHES BEGINNING 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE PORTRAYED TO BE MODEST WITH
LIMITED UPPER LEVEL ASCENT. HENCE...SO DESPITE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OVERALL SET UP SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS
SEVERE. TEMPERATURE WISE...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FIRST OF ALL...THERE IS ABOVE NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THIS COMPLEX
PATTERN. WITH THAT SAID...HERE IS THE LATEST EXPECTATION FOR THE
LONG RANGE. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...AS ANOTHER STRONGER REGION OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...ONCE TROPICAL SYSTEM RINA LIES NEAR THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS VARYING FROM DISSIPATION...TO
LIFTING IT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...TO SAGGING THE SYSTEM
BACK INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE LATTER SCENARIO SEEMS MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER...WITH CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ABOVE AVERAGE POPS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE KEPT FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE OPTIMISTICALLY
TRIMMING POPS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

[tolakram]

Rapid scan has been enabled. Current live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=12

I see an eye forming now.

[Dave C]

Love that rapid scan, definately improved outflow on east side today.

[AdamFirst]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 83.9W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO CANCUN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA.

[AdamFirst]

11 AM discussion

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...AS RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN SHOULD
RESULT IN RINA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
IS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK
LYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.

BASED ON THE FASTER TRACK FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

[tgenius]

Sure looks like Miami will be in the clear on this one.. which is a good thing, it would probably ruin Halloween for alot of kids here.. hopefully it does decouple and doesn't pose much for cuba either.

[Sanibel]

Warmer tops may be peak-out at category 2 due to influence of dry air.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[mf_dolphin]

It definitely looks like Rina gulped a bit of dry air on the north/north-east side. We'll have to see if it can shrug it off.

[samrulz226]

Hello from Guanaja Honduras, Bay Islands...I have been here since last weds and have been stuck inside this house because of a northern that came through here first. The conditions have rapidly started to change since last night. I came here to visit a friend and enjoy some snorkeling and sunshine...oh well, life in the tropics. This house survived Hurricane Mitch with 26 people huddled inside so I do feel safe. I will try to let you know how the conditions are until we lose power.

[AdamFirst]

Rina tapping into the Pacific a bit? Am I seeing this correct?

[AdamFirst]

Recon is in the air. Someone's gotta pick it up, I have to leave in 20 minutes.

381
URNT15 KNHC 251500
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 01 20111025
145030 3024N 08856W 0226 ///// 0213 +295 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145100 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0214 +292 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145130 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0213 +276 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145200 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0214 +276 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145230 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0214 +280 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145300 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0214 +301 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145330 3024N 08856W 0226 ///// 0214 +295 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
145400 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0213 +295 +138 360000 000 /// /// 23
145430 3024N 08856W 0227 ///// 0213 +277 +136 360000 000 /// /// 23
145500 3024N 08856W 0225 ///// 0212 +241 +136 360000 000 /// /// 23
145530 3024N 08856W 0221 ///// 0209 +263 +132 360000 000 /// /// 23
145600 3024N 08856W 0223 ///// 0210 +236 +130 360000 000 /// /// 23
145630 3024N 08856W 0223 ///// 0207 +222 +126 067001 004 /// /// 23
145700 3025N 08855W 0231 ///// 0206 +196 +115 068009 012 /// /// 23
145730 3026N 08855W 0053 00141 0219 +187 +099 085011 017 /// /// 03
145800 3027N 08854W 9745 00399 0206 +188 +074 095014 016 /// /// 03
145830 3027N 08852W 9337 00759 0212 +158 +068 106008 010 /// /// 03
145900 3026N 08852W 9159 00931 0221 +150 +014 099008 012 /// /// 03
145930 3025N 08853W 8663 01411 0223 +138 -036 109013 013 /// /// 03
150000 3023N 08854W 8378 01695 0221 +117 -039 128010 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

916
URNT15 KNHC 251510
AF306 0418A RINA HDOB 02 20111025
150030 3022N 08855W 8113 01969 0217 +116 -043 082004 006 /// /// 03
150100 3021N 08856W 7844 02249 0199 +120 -043 109006 008 /// /// 03
150130 3019N 08857W 7604 02503 0180 +114 -039 081008 008 /// /// 03
150200 3018N 08858W 7373 02762 0172 +105 -043 068011 013 /// /// 03
150230 3016N 08859W 7164 03002 0159 +102 -041 063009 013 /// /// 03
150300 3014N 08901W 6942 03262 0159 +087 -041 058006 007 /// /// 03
150330 3013N 08902W 6763 03485 0166 +071 -045 055007 007 /// /// 03
150400 3011N 08903W 6583 03708 0166 +058 -049 001004 006 /// /// 03
150430 3010N 08904W 6430 03898 0155 +053 -056 337004 006 /// /// 03
150500 3008N 08905W 6287 04084 0141 +049 -064 003002 003 /// /// 03
150530 3006N 08907W 6142 04270 0136 +039 -066 231004 006 /// /// 03
150600 3005N 08908W 5996 04432 0106 +027 -073 217006 006 /// /// 03
150630 3003N 08909W 5872 04602 0105 +012 -079 217007 007 /// /// 03
150700 3001N 08910W 5746 04777 0113 -003 -083 221006 007 /// /// 03
150730 2959N 08912W 5636 04932 0122 -016 -088 233004 005 /// /// 03
150800 2958N 08913W 5533 05078 0131 -029 -091 245004 004 /// /// 03
150830 2956N 08914W 5421 05239 0267 -044 -099 287002 003 /// /// 03
150900 2954N 08915W 5309 05403 0275 -058 -106 146000 001 /// /// 03
150930 2952N 08915W 5206 05556 0281 -073 -116 131001 001 /// /// 03
151000 2950N 08915W 5104 05706 0285 -088 -126 113001 002 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Nice eye trying to clear out.

[NDG]

http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/9615/86450874.jpg

Rina tapping into the Pacific a bit? Am I seeing this correct?

That's actually the outflow in the upper levels.

Edit:
TPW loop from MIMIC shows that most of the moisture in the lower levels that it has being grabbing is from the Caribbean itself.
Lots of dry air in the lower levels in the GOM, maybe that is why the Euro has been persistent in dissipating Rina as it nears the Yucatan P.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html