ATL: EX INVEST 97L - Discussion

[wxman57]

Interesting that the models take it right next to where Rina is forecast to be in 120hrs, near western Cuba. Perhaps it will be absorbed by Rina?

[cycloneye]

This afternoon discussion of 97L by Dr Jeff Masters.

97L approaching ABC islands
A broad region of low pressure approaching the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao (Invest 97L), is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today, but the activity is not organized into spiral bands, as is apparent from Curacao radar. 97L is surrounded by a large region of dry air, and this dry air will retard development. 97L is under low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this shear is expected to remain low through Thursday. By the time 97L reaches the region between Jamaica and Nicaragua in the Central Caribbean on Thursday or Friday, the storm should find a moister environment, and could develop into a tropical depression. However, none of the reliable models are predicting that 97L will develop. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I put the odds higher, at 20%.

[westwind]

Interesting that the models take it right next to where Rina is forecast to be in 120hrs, near western Cuba. Perhaps it will be absorbed by Rina?

That wouldn't surprise me in the least. 97L seems to be moving towards her fairly rapidly. The only question is will it be able to develop by then?

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAND CAYMAN.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF
MARGARITA ISLAND VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY COULD BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE LARGE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Rainband]

I still say 97 is the one that will surprise us all

[cycloneye]

I still say 97 is the one that will surprise us all

I have been saying here this may be a sleeper. And that TWO reinforces that thinking.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011102500, , BEST, 0, 125N, 643W, 25, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[fci]

I still say 97 is the one that will surprise us all

But where will it go?
Rina is still supposed to be in the Western Carib. by the time 97L gets there.

[Florida1118]

I still say 97 is the one that will surprise us all

But where will it go?
Rina is still supposed to be in the Western Carib. by the time 97L gets there.

Models show it plowing into where Rina is...so it might just be murdered by her

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BONAIRE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[fci]

Why did they issue a special at 11:00?

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to see what interaction may occur between Rina and maybe Sean?

[cycloneye]

Why did they issue a special at 11:00?

Good question. My take is that as the 11 PM Rina advisory products went out,they did the STWO to release them at the same time,and the system has been organizing at a steady pace tonight,but there may be other reasons.

[Caribwxgirl]

How come there's no floater on this?

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z HWRF has a Cat3/Cat4 system bearing down on Cuba heading due north toward the FL Straights....

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 0Z OCT 25

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -64.30 LAT: 12.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -65.40 LAT: 12.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -66.60 LAT: 12.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -68.50 LAT: 12.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -71.20 LAT: 12.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -72.40 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -73.60 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -74.60 LAT: 13.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -75.70 LAT: 14.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -77.20 LAT: 14.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -78.10 LAT: 15.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -79.20 LAT: 15.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 990.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -79.80 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 989.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -80.30 LAT: 16.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 982.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -80.80 LAT: 17.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 972.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -81.00 LAT: 18.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 960.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -81.20 LAT: 19.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -81.40 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -81.50 LAT: 20.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 949.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -81.70 LAT: 21.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 946.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -81.70 LAT: 22.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -81.70 LAT: 22.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):

[SouthDadeFish]

So it kills off Rina but bombs future Sean... I give up.

[WeatherEmperor]

So it kills off Rina but bombs future Sean... I give up.

Let's add a little more craziness to the mix. This map shows the latest 00Z HWRF and 00Z GFDL. Have fun



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricaneman]

So it kills off Rina but bombs future Sean... I give up.

Let's add a little more craziness to the mix. This map shows the latest 00Z HWRF and 00Z GFDL. Have fun

http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/5160/storm97.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Im thinking this might be more of a threat than Rina in the long run

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

Looks to me that Sean is about to be born soon. This entity is organizing quite well now. Interesting days ahead for all interests in the Caribbean with the progression of this system and with Rina.

[cycloneye]

A negative factor for this system,whatever it becomes,will be how the outflow from Rina affects it.