ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dave]

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250411
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 10 20111025
040130 2514N 08746W 3978 07620 0398 -200 //// 083011 011 024 000 01
040200 2511N 08745W 3978 07621 0398 -200 //// 080010 010 024 001 01
040230 2509N 08744W 3978 07621 0398 -200 //// 075010 010 025 000 01
040300 2507N 08743W 3976 07624 0398 -200 //// 072010 010 024 000 01
040330 2504N 08741W 3978 07621 0397 -201 //// 069010 010 025 000 01
040400 2502N 08740W 3978 07618 0394 -205 //// 063007 007 025 000 01
040430 2500N 08739W 3978 07615 0391 -204 //// 069006 006 025 001 01
040500 2458N 08738W 3978 07614 0390 -200 //// 062006 007 026 001 01
040530 2455N 08737W 3978 07613 0389 -200 //// 063007 008 026 000 01
040600 2453N 08736W 3978 07613 0389 -200 //// 068005 006 026 000 01
040630 2451N 08735W 3976 07614 0388 -200 //// 073004 005 026 000 01
040700 2448N 08734W 3978 07611 0389 -200 //// 091003 004 025 001 01
040730 2446N 08733W 3976 07614 0389 -203 //// 074002 003 025 000 01
040800 2444N 08732W 3978 07611 0388 -205 //// 066000 002 025 000 01
040830 2441N 08731W 3977 07614 0389 -205 //// 251002 003 025 001 01
040900 2439N 08730W 3977 07615 0390 -205 //// 249003 003 026 000 01
040930 2437N 08729W 3977 07615 0390 -205 //// 258003 004 027 000 01
041000 2434N 08728W 3978 07614 0390 -205 //// 259004 004 027 000 01
041030 2432N 08727W 3978 07615 0391 -205 //// 256004 004 027 000 01
041100 2430N 08726W 3978 07615 0391 -205 //// 255004 004 027 000 01
$$

[Dave]

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250421
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 11 20111025
041130 2428N 08724W 3978 07615 0391 -205 //// 256003 004 027 001 01
041200 2425N 08723W 3976 07616 0392 -205 //// 243003 003 028 000 01
041230 2423N 08722W 3978 07615 0393 -205 //// 216003 004 026 000 01
041300 2421N 08721W 3978 07615 0393 -206 //// 203004 004 026 000 01
041330 2418N 08720W 3976 07619 0393 -205 //// 206002 003 026 001 01
041400 2416N 08719W 3978 07615 0393 -205 //// 221001 002 026 000 01
041430 2414N 08718W 3978 07620 0395 -202 //// 188001 002 027 000 01
041500 2411N 08717W 3978 07617 0395 -200 //// 242001 002 027 000 01
041530 2409N 08716W 3979 07617 0396 -203 //// 342001 001 027 000 01
041600 2407N 08715W 3978 07618 0396 -204 //// 351001 002 027 000 01
041630 2404N 08714W 3978 07620 0396 -205 //// 014002 002 027 000 01
041700 2404N 08714W 3978 07620 0396 -205 //// 024003 004 025 000 01
041730 2400N 08712W 3978 07620 0396 -204 //// 012003 003 025 001 01
041800 2357N 08711W 3977 07620 0396 -204 //// 011003 003 025 000 01
041830 2355N 08710W 3978 07617 0396 -203 //// 013003 003 025 000 01
041900 2353N 08709W 3978 07621 0396 -201 //// 019002 003 025 000 01
041930 2350N 08708W 3978 07619 0397 -200 //// 028002 003 024 001 01
042000 2348N 08707W 3978 07621 0397 -200 //// 048003 003 026 000 01
042030 2346N 08706W 3976 07623 0398 -200 //// 073003 003 025 000 01
042100 2344N 08705W 3976 07623 0399 -203 //// 068004 004 026 000 01
$$
;

[Blown Away]

All October storms passing in the circle.
Not buying the extreme right turn and moving ESE from Cuba back into the Caribbean unless Rina is looping. Not one track has the ESE movement back into the Caribbean. Paula was the only storm to take a hard right, maybe Paula is the best comparison?? Something will give, either dissipation in the Caribbean or bend back towards SFL/Straits, JMHO.

[SouthDadeFish]

00Z GFS makes no kind of sense to me. 500mb winds out of the SW the whole way from the Yucatan to Florida, but it dips Rina south? The only way I see Rina dipping south is if it gets sheared to death. If Rina remains anything more than a minimal tropical storm it looks like she is headed for South Florida at this time. I'm skeptical of the forecast shear. 200mb winds are at about 35-40 knots in four days over the SE Gulf. If the low-level flow is 15 knots that means wind shear is only 20-25 knots, similar to what Wilma saw back in 2005. 20-25 knots of shear isn't the end of the world for a major hurricane, assuming Rina reaches this level. Perhaps the resolution of the images I'm looking at aren't good enough...

[Dave]

[fci]

All October storms passing in the circle.
Not buying the extreme right turn and moving ESE from Cuba back into the Caribbean unless Rina is looping. Not one track has the ESE movement back into the Caribbean. Paula was the only storm to take a hard right, maybe Paula is the best comparison?? Something will give, either dissipation in the Caribbean or bend back towards SFL/Straits, JMHO.

I can't see a bend to the east and then back N or NE to SFL/Straits.
The SE turn would be, to me; indicative of rapid weakening at that point.
I think if the westerlies and front are that strong that it could die in the NW Carib or more likely a path across Western Cuba, emerging north of Central Cuba and then a sheared mess through the Southern Bahamas would be the path.
Then again, it could scoot ahead of the front over SFL and remind us of the W storm 6 years ago today.....
At this point in W's life, the models were remarkably consistent with a SFL hit unlike how they are with Rina.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250431
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 12 20111025
042130 2341N 08703W 3978 07622 0399 -205 //// 065004 004 026 000 01
042200 2339N 08702W 3976 07624 0400 -205 //// 071004 005 027 000 01
042230 2337N 08701W 3978 07623 0400 -203 //// 074004 004 026 000 01
042300 2334N 08700W 3978 07624 0401 -202 //// 072004 004 027 000 01
042330 2332N 08659W 3976 07627 0401 -200 //// 083006 007 027 000 01
042400 2330N 08658W 3978 07624 0401 -202 //// 096007 007 027 001 01
042430 2327N 08657W 3977 07625 0401 -205 //// 098008 009 028 000 01
042500 2325N 08656W 3978 07625 0402 -204 //// 101009 009 027 000 01
042530 2323N 08655W 3978 07625 0402 -200 //// 098008 009 027 000 01
042600 2321N 08654W 3976 07627 0402 -200 //// 090007 008 027 000 01
042630 2318N 08653W 3978 07627 0402 -199 //// 087007 007 029 000 01
042700 2316N 08652W 3976 07628 0402 -195 //// 087006 006 029 000 01
042730 2314N 08651W 3978 07626 0402 -195 //// 089007 007 029 000 01
042800 2311N 08650W 3978 07626 0403 -195 //// 092007 007 030 001 01
042830 2309N 08649W 3978 07628 0404 -195 //// 102008 008 029 000 01
042900 2307N 08648W 3978 07628 0404 -195 //// 107008 009 029 000 01
042930 2305N 08647W 3978 07626 0404 -195 //// 103008 008 029 000 01
043000 2302N 08646W 3978 07628 0404 -195 //// 104007 007 029 000 01
043030 2300N 08645W 3976 07630 0404 -194 //// 108008 008 028 000 01
043100 2258N 08644W 3978 07626 0403 -193 //// 109007 008 028 000 01
$$
;

[AdamFirst]

00z GFS initalizes Rina way, way too weak. It has no clue about this storm, IMO.

The dynamic models are gaining a rare lead in this race.

[Dave]

[HurricaneWarning92]

Hmm... well, people, we wanted action, and got to the point where some were even bored that there werent any storms in the basin, well... mother nature just responded.

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250441
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 13 20111025
043130 2255N 08643W 3977 07626 0401 -195 //// 111006 006 028 000 01
043200 2253N 08642W 3980 07620 0401 -192 //// 107005 006 028 000 01
043230 2251N 08641W 3974 07634 0402 -190 //// 122006 006 027 001 01
043300 2248N 08640W 3979 07623 0402 -190 //// 119005 006 027 000 01
043330 2246N 08639W 3978 07625 0402 -191 //// 117004 004 028 000 01
043400 2244N 08638W 3978 07626 0402 -190 //// 124003 003 029 000 01
043430 2242N 08637W 3978 07625 0402 -190 //// 126002 002 028 000 01
043500 2242N 08637W 3978 07625 0402 -190 //// 141004 005 028 000 01
043530 2237N 08635W 3978 07625 0402 -190 //// 137005 005 028 000 01
043600 2235N 08634W 3976 07626 0401 -190 //// 142004 005 027 000 01
043630 2232N 08633W 3978 07624 0402 -190 //// 142004 005 028 000 01
043700 2230N 08632W 3978 07625 0402 -190 //// 140005 005 029 000 01
043730 2228N 08631W 3978 07626 0402 -190 //// 143004 004 028 000 01
043800 2226N 08630W 3978 07626 0402 -190 //// 139003 004 028 000 01
043830 2223N 08629W 3978 07626 0402 -190 //// 140004 004 028 000 01
043900 2221N 08627W 3978 07627 0403 -190 //// 148005 006 028 001 01
043930 2219N 08626W 3978 07626 0403 -190 //// 158005 006 029 000 01
044000 2217N 08625W 3978 07627 0403 -189 //// 151006 006 029 000 01
044030 2214N 08624W 3978 07625 0403 -185 //// 153006 007 029 001 01
044100 2212N 08623W 3976 07630 0404 -190 //// 187006 006 029 001 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[fci]

While this is a good storm to watch, I was pretty happy with last week's prognostication that the season was over.

Oh well, hopefully this is the last one this season to follow...

[Macrocane]

000
URNT15 KNHC 250451
AF304 0318A RINA HDOB 14 20111025
044130 2210N 08622W 3978 07628 0405 -190 //// 200005 006 029 000 01
044200 2208N 08620W 3979 07627 0406 -191 //// 196006 007 029 000 01
044230 2205N 08619W 3978 07630 0407 -189 //// 191006 007 029 001 01
044300 2203N 08618W 3976 07633 0407 -185 //// 184005 005 028 000 01
044330 2201N 08617W 3978 07629 0407 -185 //// 177005 005 029 000 01
044400 2159N 08616W 3978 07632 0407 -185 //// 178005 005 029 000 01
044430 2157N 08615W 3978 07631 0407 -185 //// 172005 005 029 000 01
044500 2154N 08613W 3978 07631 0407 -185 //// 170005 005 029 000 01
044530 2152N 08612W 3978 07631 0407 -185 //// 174006 007 029 000 01
044600 2150N 08611W 3976 07632 0407 -185 //// 173006 006 029 001 01
044630 2148N 08610W 3978 07631 0406 -185 //// 169006 006 029 000 01
044700 2145N 08609W 3978 07628 0405 -185 //// 167006 006 030 000 01
044730 2143N 08608W 3976 07631 0405 -185 //// 182005 005 030 000 01
044800 2141N 08607W 3978 07628 0405 -185 //// 190007 007 030 000 01
044830 2139N 08605W 3978 07628 0405 -185 //// 186007 008 030 000 01
044900 2137N 08604W 3978 07628 0404 -185 //// 181007 007 030 000 01
044930 2134N 08603W 3978 07628 0404 -184 //// 179009 009 030 000 01
045000 2132N 08602W 3976 07630 0405 -181 //// 174009 009 031 000 01
045030 2130N 08601W 3978 07627 0404 -180 //// 169008 008 031 000 01
045100 2128N 08600W 3976 07630 0405 -180 //// 171007 008 030 000 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[boca]

Is their something wrong with the spaghetti model page? If not I need a new link please.

[Evil Jeremy]

This one boca?

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html

[SouthDadeFish]

The eye is starting to become apparent on IR imagery:



Notice the yellow colors (-80C) almost fully surrounding the eye. Also has that buzzsaw shape going on with the strong feeder band to the W and N. I'm very anxious to see what recon finds.