Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[amawea]

We have a freeze warning tonight in north Arkansas. I hope you guys in Texas get some good rains and cold weather soon. My wife and I are coming down to visit our son and daughters for Thanksgiving and I hope it's chili!

[aggiecutter]

With the AO turning positive by the first of November I think we are headed (at least for the first part of November) for the warmest November in a long time.

Larry Cosgrove seems to think the middle of November will be on the cold side, with the possibility of a few storms.
http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-hous ... er-20-2011

BTW, where is Portastorm.

[amawea]

BTW, where is Portastorm.

He's in Austin.

[Tireman4]

[BTW, where is Portastorm.[/quote]

Porta? I think he is holed up at the PWC trying to get the November-December forecasts ready. I did see a truck for Grey Goose by the building late last night. Humm..

[gboudx]

Seems like almost every winter it's predicted to be warm and dry.

I am hopeful we'll have another decent winter. The streak can't end now!

Well there is always the Farmer's Almanac for a better Winter Outlook

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2011/08/29/2012-us-winter-forecast/

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I have to check a map to see where this happened in Texas (I was hoping those winds would bring rain but when I mentioned it to my boss he said a dust storm would likely happen first). We both looked when he found this:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZ8XZ3L2Fe8[/youtube]
I wonder how many people are aware of how dangerous it is to breathe that sand/dirt into their lungs?



So did vbhoutex spend the day becoming one with his heater?????? (I'm sure I heard him say any temps below 90 would be )

BTW my overnight temps, last night, were warmer than some areas in Texas.

[Rgv20]

Got the first 40s this morning in Rio Grande City...Well it was 49F

In other news it looks like the 12zECMWF went a lot drier for the middle of the week cold front more in line with the GFS.


SaskatchewanScreamer it looks like the brunt of the strong winds were for the southern Texas Panhandle. Look at the comparison from a pic of the 1930s dust bowl to this dust storm of 2011!




The NWS in Lubbock had a really nice detailed look at the Dust Storm..Enjoy http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/?n=events-2011-20111017-haboob

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Rgv20 thank you ever so much for that link! Scary as all get out but fascinating to see how much area that hellish cloud covered. So what happened to it? It looks like it hit a certain area and disappeared. The dirty thirties is exactly what we were thinking when we watched it.

Got the first 40s this morning in Rio Grande City...Well it was 49F

Now if you left the house when it was at that temp I'm betting you were wishing you had a winter parka ... what a shock to the system to feel those temps after what you folks have been through this past summer. Here I try to wear less then I should just so I can acclimatize asap. Soon -20F will feel warm to me (if accuweather's forecast is accurate). I'm praying they are WRONG!

[vbhoutex]

I haven't even turned on my heater yet. Came close though. Might have to with the next front this coming week. The lowest we've seen at the house is 47f while the official at IAH was 44f with some high 30's in outlying metro areas. And yes, after this summer anything below 90f does seem cold.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I haven't even turned on my heater yet. Came close though. Might have to with the next front this coming week. The lowest we've seen at the house is 47f while the official at IAH was 44f with some high 30's in outlying metro areas. And yes, after this summer anything below 90f does seem cold.

You haven't dug out your kilt yet then (and Mrs. Vbhoutex must have hidden your Speedo).

[vbhoutex]

I haven't even turned on my heater yet. Came close though. Might have to with the next front this coming week. The lowest we've seen at the house is 47f while the official at IAH was 44f with some high 30's in outlying metro areas. And yes, after this summer anything below 90f does seem cold.

You haven't dug out your kilt yet then (and Mrs. Vbhoutex must have hidden your Speedo).

IF I do wear my speedo under my kilt(yes I am of Scottish heritage-Dumfrieshire) it does tend to delay the use of the heater.

[somethingfunny]

I haven't even turned on my heater yet. Came close though. Might have to with the next front this coming week. The lowest we've seen at the house is 47f while the official at IAH was 44f with some high 30's in outlying metro areas. And yes, after this summer anything below 90f does seem cold.

You haven't dug out your kilt yet then (and Mrs. Vbhoutex must have hidden your Speedo).

IF I do wear my speedo under my kilt(yes I am of Scottish heritage-Dumfrieshire) it does tend to delay the use of the heater.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You haven't dug out your kilt yet then (and Mrs. Vbhoutex must have hidden your Speedo).

IF I do wear my speedo under my kilt(yes I am of Scottish heritage-Dumfrieshire) it does tend to delay the use of the heater. [/quote]

[/quote]

Mrs. Vbhoutex please hide his kilt too!

[Rgv20]

Looking at the graphic below it looks like the 12zGFS Ensembles agree on a below normal temperatures for the whole state of Texas for Thursday and Friday. GFS Ensembles Mean are forecasting anywhere from 12 to 18F below normal!

[aggiecutter]

For the first time this year, wintry weather is being mentioned in the Shreveport AFD. Looks like it will be just north of my area, Texarkana. However, the real good news is that it looks like the Texarkana area is going to get two good soaking rains, tonight and Thursday. We're currently under a severe thunderstorm watch.

Shreveport AFD:

SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH IN WEST TEXAS. THIS WAS BRINGING HIGHER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ESPECIALLY INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
A SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE
LOW LEVEL FORCING...COMBINED WITH AMPLE SHEAR ALOFT SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS IN THE ONE HALF TO
ONE INCH RANGE LOOK REASONABLE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30...WITH AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I30 ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COOL NORTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...RAIN AND A WEAK FRONT FOLLOWING THE
SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT...SO ONCE THE MEAN RH FALLS ON MONDAY WITH CLOUDS CLEARING...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 80S.

ARRIVAL OF NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE
SLOWER THIS RUN. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY WET SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOW IT COLD ENOUGH
FOR A LITTLE WRAP AROUND WINTER WEATHER...WELL NORTH OF THE CWA
FRIDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEMPS LOOK WELL BELOW NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S.

[iorange55]

That's a good start to the fall/winter!

[Rgv20]

Both the 12zECMWF&GFS are advertising wintry precipitation for the Northern Texas Panhandle on Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. Winter season is making its presence known!

[Turtle]

@aggiecutter: That's great! I'm in the SHV NWS area too (near I-20) so I'll be reading there AFD. I'm jealous that your in a spot that gets much more snow than we do though.

[Portastorm]

[BTW, where is Portastorm.

Porta? I think he is holed up at the PWC trying to get the November-December forecasts ready. I did see a truck for Grey Goose by the building late last night. Humm..[/quote]

I'll deny that until there are pictures!

Thinking I may release my forecast for November-December around Thanksgiving ... I'm told it'll improve my grade.

Hoping to (finally) get some thoughts out this weekend. Been super busy with my day job and helping communities recover from the wildfires. Glad to see the dialogue continuing on here!

[Portastorm]

Porta? I think he is holed up at the PWC trying to get the November-December forecasts ready. I did see a truck for Grey Goose by the building late last night. Humm..

I'll deny that until there are pictures!

Thinking I may release my forecast for November-December around Thanksgiving ... I'm told it'll improve my grade.

Hoping to (finally) get some thoughts out this weekend. Been super busy with my day job and helping communities recover from the wildfires. Glad to see the dialogue continuing on here![/quote]