#57 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:11 am
NDG wrote:I have to admit that I am shocked this morning in a way how well this looks this morning, before I went to bed all indications were that the COC was moving inland near Chetumal just north of Belize but this morning all indications is that it is still offshore, just south or SSE of Cozumel. Is as if it moved almost due N or it reformed closer to the deep convection offshore.
Interesting.
I think it was more of the latter NDG. I think the Low re-formed closer to the deep convection near the NE Yucatan coast during the overnight/pre-dawn hours of this morning. 95L continues to look pretty good in organization and if the current trend continues, I would not be surprised to see NHC upgrade this to a TD or even a minimum TS within the next 12-24 hours. Tropical storm wind gusts already have been reported in and around the Yucatan Channel.
There may also be enough of a window of opportunity for this system to strengthen into a moderate/strong T.S. ( 50-60mph) before shear increases by Tuesday in advance of the strong upper level trough. It will be interesting to see how much this system can spin up and intensify before being picked up by the trough in the next 48 hours or so.
Last edited by
northjaxpro on Sun Oct 16, 2011 7:17 am, edited 2 times in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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