Developing Low -Heavy Rain/Gale Force Winds- Is invest 93L

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is staying consistent with its prior runs. So, we have the GFS (E of FL last 8 runs) vs. Euro (W of FL last 5 runs) in a classic battle of the titan models. I can't recall a previous situation all that similar to this. It is very interesting to see both models disagree and remain quite consistent with their own prior runs.

We also have an interesting "battle" between AJC3 and wxman57, two well respected mets. AJC3 thinks it will ride up W of FL or near the W coast while wxman57 thinks it will do this just E of FL.

Any other opinions? W or E of FL?

[maxx9512]

I'll stay on the west coast solution with AJC3. Just looked at the last discussion from Miami and they to are leaning
to the ECMWF solution. Florida will be be wet either way but depending on which solution is right, Central or South Fl. one
will get most of the precip. Interesting to see how this all pans out.

[tolakram]

Canadian now has an east coast solution riding west over the panhandle, and we're under 72 hours, so I'm going with the east coast solution or taking the consensus and thinking the low will develop on top of Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

I'll stay on the east coast solution with me. Euro looks like it has the low too closed to the upper-level trof axis. 12Z Canadian is east of Florida, along with the 12Z NOGAPS. Only Euro and UKMET are west of Florida now.

[maxx9512]

Wxman57, you're gonna stick with you huh? Lol! Interesting what the CMC shows. Looks like one low comes into Fl. around Melbourne
and a second one starts off SE Fl. and move north up toward NC. To me it looks like the bulk of the rain misses SE Fl.coming in from
the SW coast on the NGP model.

[psdstu]

Last 8 GFS runs for potential early week SE US tropical storm: pretty consistent

18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb 10/11
00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb 10/11
06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb 10/11
12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb 10/11
18Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb late 10/10
00Z Fri: Wilmington 1008 mb 10/12 (appears to be extratropical at landfall)
06Z Fri: Beaufort 1003 mb 10/11
12Z Fri Midway 1005 mb 10/10



Although no other major model has yet to show a definitive SE coast tropical storm landfall (as far as I know), the GFS has been pretty consistent/insistent on this over a fairly tight corridor (St. Augustine to Charleston). Also, the GGEM is now getting close to this kind of solution after previously being in the Gulf. The Euro is still holding tough with its Gulf solutions. However, even it is showing subtle signs of moving further east. We'll see. The UKMET is still going with the Gulf (as of the 12Z Fri run), but it often is a west outlier. Fun times for some of us for a change!

We need some rain in the worst way but it doesn't look like we're going to get much of anything here in PC regardless of where the Low eventually forms and ends up heading. Very disappointing but not unexpected...

I hear ya!!! I was hoping that we would see some of that rain here in Jackson County.......... but like much of the summer it's heading elsewhere...

[Rainband]

I'll stay on the east coast solution with me. Euro looks like it has the low too closed to the upper-level trof axis. 12Z Canadian is east of Florida, along with the 12Z NOGAPS. Only Euro and UKMET are west of Florida now.

nogaps???? even I know it isn't good this year

[AdamFirst]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
236 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL VOLUSIA...INDIAN RIVER...INLAND
VOLUSIA...MARTIN...NORTHERN BREVARD...OKEECHOBEE...ORANGE...
OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN BREVARD AND ST. LUCIE.

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH. UPWARDS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ALREADY TODAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE
OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES ALONG THE COAST WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. INLAND AREAS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO 4 TO 6 INCHES
LOCALLY. THESE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS COULD CAUSE FLOODING
OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THE WATCH PERIOD.

Another huge complex of heavy rain is about to hit shore here on the Treasure Coast.

[NDG]

Pretty nasty wx here in Seminole County and around the Orlando area, a nasty squall type wx passing over me right now with wind gusts over 30 mph.

Conditions at: KORL (ORLANDO , FL, US) observed 2253 UTC 07 October 2011
Temperature: 23.9°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 18.9°C (66°F) [RH = 74%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.11 inches Hg (1019.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1020.1 mb]
Winds: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.4 m/s)
gusting to 36 MPH (31 knots; 16.1 m/s)
Visibility: 8 miles (13 km)
Ceiling: 3800 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 2900 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3800 feet AGL
broken clouds at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: -TSRA (light rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[NDG]

Windy conditions also around St Augustine with some of these storms moving in from the Atlantic:

Conditions at: KSGJ (ST AUGUSTINE , FL, US) observed 2327 UTC 07 October 2011
Temperature: 22.0°C (72°F)
Dewpoint: 17.0°C (63°F) [RH = 73%]
Pressure (altimeter): 30.19 inches Hg (1022.4 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 knots; 14.0 m/s)
gusting to 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 5 miles (8 km)
Ceiling: 4800 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 3400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 4800 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 11000 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[wxman57]

I'll stay on the east coast solution with me. Euro looks like it has the low too closed to the upper-level trof axis. 12Z Canadian is east of Florida, along with the 12Z NOGAPS. Only Euro and UKMET are west of Florida now.

nogaps???? even I know it isn't good this year

I certainly wouldn't use NOGAPS for a track, and using it for anything is a pretty weak argument.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Flash flood watch for Dade and Broward county.

[NDG]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 PM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SINCE LATE AFTN. ONE CELL OFFSHORE
MARTIN COUNTY LIKELY PRODUCE A TORNADIC WATERSPOUT BASED ON DEEP
STRONG ROTATION SEEN BUT IT DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.
HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OVER THE ATLC. WINDY
ONSHORE FLOW (070-090 DEGREES) WILL PUSH INCREASINGLY HIGHER
COVERAGE OF MARINE INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WELL INLAND.
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP WITH GIVING CELLS A BOOST. CONVERGENCE
LINES WILL PRODUCE TRAINING HEAVY PCPN IN SOME SELECTED AREAS ALONG
THE COAST LEADING TO LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS...ESP ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR ALL CO`S EXCEPT LAKE INTO
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE REGIME WL FAVOR COASTAL AREAS FOR HIGHEST RAIN
AMTS BASED ON PRIOR CASE HISTORIES.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=31

[Recurve]

I drove I-75 across W to E this afternoon, saw one monstrous cell off to the east-northeast, also some giant cells around Tampa Bay and over Miami. The biggest one, maybe over western PBC, had huge cloud to ground lightning and all kinds of streamers and flashes in the top.

Best of all was a high of only 80 around St. Pete, and strong east winds.

So, is a low still developing hereabouts?

[beoumont]

This reminds me of the No name Strom in 93 when i lived in ST. Pete. Does anyone recall how this storm set up?http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/SW.3.html

Since there is no tropical/subtropical storm on the track book maps for 1993, I will assume you are talking about the March storm - "storm of the century"

That was born from an extremely deep closed low (500 mb.) that dived SE out of Canada and maxed out around the mid Atlantic States. I recall the progs showing a 553 mb surface low forming near Wash, DC; but it turned out maxing out at 960 mb.

A surface low formed in the west Gulf and moved rapidly East than NE across the armpit of Florida, bringing a pretty much non-forecast tidal surge of 12 feet south of near Keaton Beach near Cedar Key, and Pine Island, north of Tampa. I believe 8 people died from that surge.

There were 11 tornadoes in the US, and straight line winds of near 100 in Havana, Cuba and parts of Florida from what could be called a derecho. Boone, NC had gusts up to 110 and 36 inches of snow; 16 inches fell near Birmingham Al., and the lowest pressure in Tallahassee was 976 mb. 43 inches of snow fell in Syracuse, NY, and 53 inches in Snowshoe, WV.

I personally experienced gusts of around 80 mph in Miami, as the wooded fence blew down at my house; before boarding a plane to Boston, and landed in heavy snow - then drove to Cape Cod at night in the snowstorm; which actually got less snow than Boston (13 inches), but we did record 68 mph in heavy sleet.



The SPT link you provided is temporarily out of order. If you were referring to a different storm, then NEVER MIND!

An interesting side story/experience occurred on my way back from Boston, two days later when flights finally began again. The US Air flight was to make a stop in Tampa then fly on to Miami. As we landed in Tampa the captain spoke, "We are out of flying hours for the week, and the airline is in the process of finding another crew to take most of you to Miami."
No other announcement was given, and two hours later people began drifting off the plane; as no new crew ever arrived; and the rest of the crew just plain left with no word to the passengers. There were several folks in wheel chairs, and no-one from the airline helped them off. Basically everyone was just left to fend for themselves, and find another flight that night, or the next day.

[wxman57]

The main vorticity associated with the tropical wave is now over the Turks and Caicos Islands heading for the western Bahamas/FL Straits. Note that the area is covered with 40+ kts of shear, so we're not talking tropical development on Sunday. Could transition to a TS as it tracks northward east of Florida on Monday. I'm surprised the NHC is still not mentioning anything at all, as development chances within 48 hours are now probably better than 50%. Again, not of a TC, but as a subtropical depression/storm.

[beoumont]

One interesting note is the NAM 60 hr. prog, that has the suface low (1001 mb) in an area of very little 200 mb. shear; basically dead center of a shear zone just NW of Key West. Sub-tropical looking for sure, but---

[Blown Away]

It has rained in Hobe Sound like I have not seen in many years! I estimate 5" of rain so far and 30 mph wind gusts.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[floridasun78]

it very stormy in dade last night and morning i heard weather office already reporting flooding some streets in miami

[AJC3]

The 00Z runs of the operational global and mesoscale models continue to be somewhat consistent with their previous runs, but significant differences continue to show up amongst the suite of models.

The UKM and NGP are the left or western-most models and given their respective biases/poor performance you would probably want to discount their solutions of a low making it that far west. The low-res ECM appears to have become very broad with a surface low/trough straddling Florida, although it's really tough to tell, looking at the coarse spatial (4MB SLP) and temporal (24-hour) resolution graphics on the ecmwf.int site. edit: Just had a look at the higher res SLP progs on the FSU MOE site, and the low is still consolidated, and centered pretty far west (reaches 86-87W), close to the solutions from the UKMET and the LOLGAPS, er, I mean NOGAPS. I still think these models are a few degrees too far to the west.

The GFS is the eastern-most, although it has trended leftward, hugging the Florida east coast and actually bringing it inland near Saint Augustine, and tracking it slowly northward across JAX.

The CMC brings the system NW from the Bahamas onshore near West Palm Beach-Stuart, across the peninsula to just offshore Saint Petersburg, then northward along the FL big bend, across the eastern FL panhandle, then into southern-southwest GA where it meanders as a secondary low forms offshore SC/GA and moves north and onshore near the SC/NC border.

The NAM and WRF-NMM are pretty similar, developing the low along the east-central Cuban coast, moving it NW passing just south and west of Key West, turning it northward, then NE and onshore between Tampa Bay and Sarasota, NE across central peninsula, and then NNE along or just offshore the NE FL coast.

I think what's causing the big differences is where the main surface low center tries to form (if a single coherent low does actually form). If it forms/consolidates closer to Andros island, the guidance wants to keep it east of Florida (with the exception of the CMC); If the low forms closer to the north coast of central Cuba the guidance wants to swing it NW near or through the lower keys and near or just offshore the west coast.

This is likely to be a case where the surface low is broad/sloppy, possibly having more than one embedded center on either side of the peninsula, based on where the upper level lift tends to cause surface pressure falls. I'm still siding with the (a?) low center reaching the eastern GOMEX just offshore the west coast and drifting slowly northward before turning NE-ward cross the big bend or north peninsula by early Monday.

Another possibility is that the low near the west coast drifts north while weakening, or appearing to "jump" into the developing baroclinic zone off the SE seaboard, something I've seen happen on several occasions in the past.

Whatever the case, it's appearing less and less likely that the low will become particularly strong. A more eastern solution would mean "relatively" lower total rainfall amounts along the east coast as the rains would likely shut off a bit earlier. But still, there's already been reports of up to 8 inches of rain along the treasure coast thus far, so excessive rainfall has already occurred and will continue for another couple days in the strong and moist convergent onshore flow.